Posted on 10/21/2005 8:16:43 AM PDT by governsleastgovernsbest
At the risk of alienating the roughly 1/3 of FReepers who, judging by the FR poll, support the Miers nomination, I believe its withdrawal has now become a question of when, not whether.
The final nail was probably the John Fund article in this morning's WSJ which strongly suggests that if hearings proceed, some very messy matters regarding the Texas Lottery and W's National Guard service will be dredged up. Here's a link to the Fund column:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110007431
Note also that, after staying above the fray, the influential Wall Street Journal editorial today calls the Miers nomination a "mistake."
So with this as preface, and again, with apologies in advance to FReepers who might be outraged at the exercise, I am starting this pool to predict when the announcement will come - be it from the WH or from Ms. Miers herself - that the nomination is being withdrawn.
I'll start the ball rolling by putting in my pick at the early end of the spectrum:
Monday, October 24th, 5 PM.
Have at it!
Possibly, though she'd only be 79.
She will not be confirmed. She will be voted down 48-52 on December 2, 2005.
Today, Friday October 21, @ 7 PM EDT (traditional weekend time to bury negative news).
You're right, nobody will believe it.
But nevertheless, that's how it will be choreographed.
IF it happens, of course.
"I foresee a cottage industry -- set up your own gambling website devoted to betting on how/when/where major political fiascos (or perceived fiascos) will be resolved."
Actually, it already exists. As Jonah Goldberg pointed out on National Review online this morning, the Miers nomination is tanking:
http://tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=35891&eventSelect=35891&updateList=true&showExpired=false
Could I ask you to be more specific? Official Rules require an exact time. Wouldn't be fair to fellow contestants to give you a 6-hour window!
Good one...
Done.
I agree...but they will not want the MSM to chew on this for the week; also, they must have a solid gold name to give them at the same time for the nomination.
PLEASE NOTE:
The admin mod has moved this thread from "News" to "Chat." I really can't complain about that, but it does mean it will be seen by fewer people. The fun will be if there are many entries, so . . .
If you have ping lists of people who would enjoy participating, can I please ask you to ping this thread?
Thanks,
Governs
I have a hunch the WH would end the pain before it got to that.
Wow - that's in only 7 hours. Buckle up, everyone!
I think you're very probably right. And on a certain level, it would make sense. Miers is nothing if not a dutiful soldier who would prefer to take the hit rather than letting her President be further damaged.
**************
He also helps his wife pick out her clothes. Oops. He doesn't have a wife.
Never mind.
Normally- I'd agree- HOWEVER- it would give the Sunday AM shows too much fodder- so I'll go with this Monday 24 Oct- late in the day- maybe after the markets close.
I'm thinking it MIGHT be a double-shot..announcing the withdrawl of Miers AND the announcement of replacement all in one???
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Hey, come to think of it, I don't have a wife either!
But I assure people they would starve waiting for my cooking and live in a cardboard box waiting for my decorating tips ;-)
Withdraws on Friday, November 11, 2005 at 4:30 - 5:00 o'clock PM, EST.
I don't think she will resign.
The $hitstorm has mostly subsided, and most of what is going on now is really a repeat.
She will make it to committee without withdrawal.
And what happens in that committee will be what I judge my opinion of her on.
"I'll go with this Monday 24 Oct- late in the day- maybe after the markets close."
Official Rules require a specific time. Can I put you down for 5 PM, or would you like to specify another time?
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