Bush Years Witness Economic Boom in Developing Nations

CIA World Fact Book, incl. past years via IndexMundi.com ^ | 10/12/05 | Dangus

[dangus]

The Bush years have seen an economic boom take place among the world's developing nations, according to my analysis of the CIA world fact book, and www.indexmundi.com, an internet site which keeps historical record of past CIA world fact books.

This article is merely describing a positive trend that appears to be benefiting billions of the world’s poor. I make no inference as to why it is happening, apart from the title tease; I do find it ironic, however, that it is occurring at this time: Among those who most vocally profess concern for the world’s poor, their most hated man in history is steering the world’s largest economy, pursuing exactly the policies which they were so certain would lead to global impoverishment.

Some suppositions may be made, but they can only weakly be tested by observing correlations. If free trade that is fueling this economic boom, it is curious that the boom is slowest in the regions most affected by improved trade. NAFTA and the European Community account for nearly half of the global economy, but, apart from the United States, both experienced growth well below the global average.

In fact, what is most striking about this report is that, apart from the United States, the growth has been constrained to the developing world.

If the world’s economy was divided into nine parts, the United States would have 2 shares; the European Union would have two shares; the rest of the “western economy” would have one share, and the developing world would have four shares. In 2004, the world economy grew at a strong 4.9% clip. Of that, the United States had a healthy, but slightly below average growth rate of 4.4%; the European Union grew at a rate of only 2.4%, mainly from what Defense Secretary called the “New Europe.” Several other major U.S.-trading partners did better in 2004 than they have lately, including Japan, and Mexico. THE ECONOMY OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD, HOME TO THE VAST MAJORITY OF GLOBAL POPULATION, IS APPROACHING SEVEN PERCENT PER YEAR!

The news is good for mega-nations. In the past five years, India’s economy has grown 78%. China’s has grown 46%. (China has reported annual growth rates higher than India’s, but my figures were obtained by dividing the CIA’s present GDP estimates by previous estimates; the year-to-year claims have been widely regarded as absurd.)

The news is even better for the “New Europe.” Several former Eastern bloc nations, like Ukraine and Lithuania, have had economies which have nearly tripled. Russia’s economy is rebounding sharply after the post-Soviet collapse, up 127%. And despite a moderating pace in 2003, Ireland is now wealthier than Europe’s traditional global powers, like France, and Germany, after her economy grew 73%. Poland’s grew by 71%. Latin America has done well, also. Even Argentina, which lacks the oil reserves of Venezuela or Brazil, had 8.3% annual growth last year.

Do not be misled into believing the fantastic growth rates in many developing nations is due to high population growth. Third world population growth has slowed dramatically. The population of the world’s babies peaked in 1980, and collapsed in the 1990s, due to industrialization, not because of anything done after the UN Population Conference. Current population growth is largely a function of longer lifespans and the residual effects of the prior baby boom, which is causing populations of thirty-somethings to soar even while the population of babies is declining. (The fact that the population of babies is declining while the population of people in child-bearing years is soaring should be very impressive.)

During the last decade, the United States’ population growth rate was about 1.3%, higher than current growth rates in China (0.57%), Mexico (1.18% -- they must all be coming here!), Brazil (0.94%) Argentina (1.02%) and quite comparable to India (1.40%), and Indonesia (1.49%).

Growth rates in 2004 for the world’s largest nations. China (1.298 billion), 9.1% to $5,500 per capita India (1.065 billion), 6.2% to $3,100 [European Union (457 million), 2.4% to $26,900] United States (293 million), 4.4% to $37,800 Indonesia (242 million), 4.9% to $3,400 Brazil (184 million), 5.1% to $7,600 Pakistan (162 million), 6.1% to $2,200 Bangladesh (144 million), 4.9% to $2,000 Russia (143 million), 6.7% to $9,800 Nigeria (129 million), 6.2% to $900 Japan (127 million), 2.9% to $28,000

Growth rates for world’s largest economies. United States, up 4.4% to $11.750 trillion [European Union, up 2.4% to $11.650 trillion] China, up 9.1% to $7.262 trillion Japan, up 2.9% to $3.750 trillion India, up 6.2% to $3.319 trillion Germany, up 1.7% to $2.362 trillion United Kingdom, up 3.2% to $1.782 trillion France, up 2.1% to $1.727 trillion Italy, up 1.3% to $1.609 trillion Brazil, up 5.1% to $1.408 trillion

Others: Canada, up 2.4% to $1.023 trillion Spain, up 2.6% to $938 billion South Korea, up 4.6% to $925 billion Iraq, up 52.3% to $54 billion North Korea, up 1.0% to $40 billion

(Growth rates were based on Gross National Product, according to the 2005 CIA World Fact Book. IndexMundi.com was used for past-years' data, but was sourced from prior editions of the CIA World Fact Book. Per Capita wealth is based on Purchasing Power Index, not GDP, and reflects the fact that goods and services are cheaper in the developing world than in the United States, and places a value on goods not resold in the international marketplace.)

[dangus]

This is largely a reprint from News/Activism.

[dangus]

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