Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19
Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:
New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:
And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--
Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
go back to dr next wed,
dressing will be changed
mother coming today
she's quite saavy, going to cut holes in toe of long tube sock to cover dressing
LOL! Nope, you needn't tell T anything --- she's her father's daughter too. Her sweet nature must have come from your dear T, her mama...lol.
I wish you could have gotten to know my wife, she raised Tracy right, made a little lady out of her.
\
Give doc my best, tell him to keep his feet dry.
I would haveloved to have have known her, but I'm certain you see some of her in Tracy.
I've related your message to him... he is please about your appointment this morning and can't help but worry about you. He said to call if there's ANYTHING at all he can do to help you.
42 degrees here at the moment, looking for a high of 65.
Ahhhh fall!
Prayers sent your way.
In some of our northern counties we had our first frost last night.
Watching the Weather Channel and they just said Galveston has already had 38 foot waves! 38 foot waves! This is just unreal.
frost is a dirty word to us flower gardeners
wash your mouth out, young man
I'm ready for Fall but NOT a FROST!
Bite your tongue, NY!
Onyx, save your knee and don't try to find that power station at Wal-Mart. I just checked their web site as well as those for Lowes, HomeDepot, BestBuy,Sears, and RadioShack. Looks like you'll have to wait until Tues. for yours.........BUT, hey, your knee won't hurt looking fruitlessly for one at Wal-Mart! (I'm trying hard to be optimistic today.)
Such a lively group this morning. ; )
never argue with an Old Biddy on meds (life lesson #1)
I am overwhelmed by your kindness! Thank you! Tuesday it is. :)
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