Posted on 09/19/2005 7:21:17 AM PDT by ken5050
49.9% chance
that the teams will enter their final series with a chance to be tied at the end of the season. Remember, one team has to be leading by 1 or 3 games entering the series in order for there to be a chance to tie.
This assumes the Sox and Yankees each have a 70% chance of winning each of their remaining 5 non-H2H games.
Using that same assumption, there is only a
17.1% chance
that the teams will end the season tied.
The odds of all four teams finishing the season with the same record is a little better than 1 in 1000.
White Sox just had another brilliant pitching performance tonight in an easy victory. If Buerhle has it together tomorrow that should just about cinch it. And if that starting pitching is returning to earlier form the Sox are going to be very difficult to overcome. Either the Yankees or Boston will be sitting home and either of them the White Sox can handle given the pitching being back. Cleveland has got to cool off eventually I mean my God it is something like 18-20 of late. My scheme is they stay hot long enough to knock out their opponent and return to form against the Sox.
They've always had the pitching. They still don't have an offense.
We have won 67.6% of our home games. The Yanks have won 51.4% of their road games. If we are still tied after tomorrow. It's expected, based on this history, that the Sox will win 1 more game than the Yanks after 7 games. That's what I predict will happen: we win the division by 1 game.
If you can figure out what the CWS did to Contreras...please don't tell Billy Connors...before last night..in the last 28 games..he was 7-0, rest of the starters 7-14.....it'd be poetic to see him face the Yankes in the post season..except the Yankes aren't making the post season..
ken5050, you praised Contreras, but you may not have realized he's really, really been good.
If the All Star Game spots were given for second half performances, Jose would be on the roster easily: 10-2 record, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. It's funny because the Sox had two All Stars who fell apart and exchanged them for at least one new All Star (2 if you count McCarthy). And it's doubly funny, as you noted, since the in-need-of-pitching Yanks basicly gave him away. Think they could have used a 3.02 ERA pitcher since the ASB? Total schadenfreude for us anti-Yanks fans.
The ChiSox have had amazing luck. Most teams who had their top two pitchers fall into a pit like the Sox would have no shot at the playoffs.
I just saw the USA Freedom Corp commercial with Mo. I always thought he was cool. He does a real good job in it. Way better than that gay S&M ad with him in a spiked mask.
And he's my pick for CYA. He's been amazing this year. Better than Santana, IMO.
I gather Clement looked pretty good yesterday...Be nice if he's back to his old form...He'll start Wednesday, and again Sunday if it's necessary, right?
Hansem ( whom BOITH the Yankees and Mets passed over) quoted in the Times' today, discussing his appearance...."I usually give up one homer a YEAR in college.."
Tuesday against the DRays, the Sawx had 21 hits in the 15-2 win..Boston's 3-6 hittrs, Ortiz, Ramirez, Nixo, and Varitek..each had 4 hits..Through the first 5 innings.they were 15 of 16..
Pujols has 199 career home runs..If the new ball park is a launching pad..and I think the outfield dimensions favor Albert..then look out...
Clement kept the ball down (just sometimes too low) and has been working on that. I think we may be getting a Lowe-esque performance in the playoffs if he can get it right, and he has time to do so. It puts a lot of pressure on Edgah to charge those ground balls and get the throw to 1B or 2B, and I'd start Cora in every Clement start. Without Edgah and with Cora and Olerud our infield defense is fine to handle Clement. He's clearly a better pitcher than he was in his last start.
The Os had nothing to really hit yesterday, which is why he went scoreless. There's something to be said for that. Groundball pitchers might be even more important in Fenway than in a place with a big OF like Game 7 of the ALCS in the Toilet. He next faces the BJs and I like that match-up. Clement won't give them many home run chances. The BJs are not scary at all if you take Vernon Wells' and the rest's ability to put balls high into the air.
I think I'd use him in the playoffs based on whether we have home field in the first round or not. I don't think Arroyo is automatically the guy kicked to the BP. Clement could be like a plus version of an extreme groundballer like our reliever Chad Bradford-- or Wang, who I gather is a big groundballer who has had success.
We have in that last series: Wells vs. Wang, Schilling vs. RJ, Wakefield vs. Moose. I think we win Game 1 and Game 3. In fact, I see Moose getting lit up-- like 6 ER, 6 IP. Clement and Arroyo miss the series, as do Small/Wright and Chacon.
GraniteStateConservative; JohnnyZ; nutmeg; SCALEMAN; All
Even better my Sawks are back in 1st (even though it's a tie)!
While I suppose it is only fitting that the Sox and Yanks are tied with a week to go. It should never have been this close. Like I said last week. While the Yanks were limping through August with all types of pitching woes were were losing to the Royals, the Orioles and D-Rays. While next weekend will be tense as any red sox yanks season finale should be. It would have been much more sweet to have our division wrappped up and sending the yanks home out of a wild card slot with a big series sweep next week.
Wells will pitch a gem today..probably a 4 hit 1 run game...and Wang for the Yankees won't get 9 run support...Towers, for Toronto, is 12-11..but on a good team he'd be a 20 game winner this season, and he's 2-1, ERA of 2.70, and 20 innings pitched in his last 3 starts...we end up 1 game ahead tonight..
Here's another happy thought for you....Andy Pettitte, whom the Yankees let walk after the 2003 season..since June 20 this year, in his last 18 starts..is 14-2 with a 1.58 ERA...think that wouldn't have helped this season, Boss? You paid 4 times his salary for Randy and Kevin...and got drek...
FYI..as discussed
| Team | W | L |
| Chicago | 93 | 61 |
| New York(T2) | 90 | 64 |
| Boston (T2) | 90 | 64 |
| LA (3) | 89 | 65 |
| Team | W | L |
| Cleveland | 92 | 63 |
| New York(T2) | 90 | 64 |
| Boston (T2) | 90 | 64 |
| Oakland | 85 | 69 |
| Team | W | L |
| Chicago White Soxs* | 97 | 65 |
| Cleveland* | 97 | 65 |
| NY Yankees | 95 | 67 |
| LA Angels | 94 | 68 |
For what YOU are about to receive, be grateful..(g)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.