49.9% chance
that the teams will enter their final series with a chance to be tied at the end of the season. Remember, one team has to be leading by 1 or 3 games entering the series in order for there to be a chance to tie.
This assumes the Sox and Yankees each have a 70% chance of winning each of their remaining 5 non-H2H games.
Using that same assumption, there is only a
17.1% chance
that the teams will end the season tied.
The odds of all four teams finishing the season with the same record is a little better than 1 in 1000.
We have won 67.6% of our home games. The Yanks have won 51.4% of their road games. If we are still tied after tomorrow. It's expected, based on this history, that the Sox will win 1 more game than the Yanks after 7 games. That's what I predict will happen: we win the division by 1 game.