FR Baseball thread..w/e 9/18: TWO WEEKS LEFT...and only ONE of 8 post-season spots clinched..

one man's opinion.......

[ken5050]

Good Monday morning, all you FReeper baseball fanatics....Two weeks left in the season, and just about everything is wide open...so let's begin...

[JohnnyZ]

P(BOS & NYY tie at 95-67), I think you have to split up

....in order to calculate that probability.

Shall we assume 70% chance of winning the non-H2H games, 50% chance of winning H2H?

[ken5050]

FYI...ESPN in NY is reporting that Torre is going to pull Small..(9-0) out of the rotation for the rest of the season, assuming that Mussina is good to go..

[SCALEMAN]

1. If two teams, say the Yankees and Red Sox, are tied for the division lead, AND BOTH TEAMS WOULD MAKE THE PLAYOFFS then they uses the head to head record to determine who is the divison champ..right now Yankees lead 9-7

You leave out a possibility. If the Yanks and BoSox tie, and both records are worse than any other second place team (Central or Western Div), they play one game and the loser is out.
Example, if BoSox and Yanks end up with 94 w tie and the ChiSox 96 w with the Tribe 95 wins, Yanks BoSox play one game, winner is division winner, loser is out and Tribe is WC.
That scenario came into play last week when the Cards could clinch with a Philiadelphia loss and either a Cards win or Stros loss. Cards had 94 wins and Phillie still had a chance at 95 wins and a Cards tie at 94-94 with the Stros.

[nutmeg]

FYI...ESPN in NY is reporting that Torre is going to pull Small..(9-0) out of the rotation for the rest of the season, assuming that Mussina is good to go..

Whoa! Can the Red Sox get him somehow...? (kidding)

[nutmeg]

I loved it when the Mets got Pedro. He drives my (Met fan) boyfriend nuts! BTW, he (Darrell) says to say 'hi'.

"zelig" says 'HI' back to both of you! :o)

Yeah, Pedro is very good, but he can drive you nuts. As I remember, Pedro doesn't particularly like pitching in cool/cold weather. But of course he did pretty well in the cool 2004 post season...

[LisaFab]

Hi to zelig also!

Let me know the next time you guys are heading to DC.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I pulled Garland out of my fantasy baseball rotation for tonight. The Indians better not make me look foolish.

[Petronski]

I had a really hinky feeling halfway through last night's game. They weren't in key or in sync, somehow. They were also overdue for a loss, I'd say. It feels funny to say that since they're still 14-4 in September, even after last night's loss.

Long story short, I think you'll be okay.

[Petronski]

Then again, maybe the 'hinky' feeling was just the beer/pizza combination...

[JohnnyZ]

Assuming the Sox and Yankees each have a 50% chance of winning head-to-head, and each have a 70% chance of winning each of their other games:

The odds -- before tonight's games -- of them tying at the end of the season were 15.14%. They had a 93.6% chance of going into the final series within 3 games of each other.

The odds for Cleveland-Chicago are probably similar, maybe a little smaller. Thus the odds of both divisions being tied at the end of the season were roughly 1 in 50. The odds of all four tying with the same record brings it pretty close to what Mike was saying, 1 in 360, I would guess. If I had some less annoying or more mathematical software I'd be able to calculate it with a bit less effort.

[Petronski]

Solo homer, Casey Blake!

 

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Cleveland	0	0	1								1	2	0
Chicago	0	0	0								0	3	0

[Petronski]

Wild pitch scores another.

 

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Cleveland	0	0	1	0	0	1					1	2	0
Chicago	0	0	0	0	0	0					0	3	0

[Petronski]

WHOOPS, CORRECTING ERROR.

 

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
Cleveland	0	0	1	0	0	1	0				2	5	0
Chicago	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0	3	0

[misterrob]

TIMLIN SUCKS!!!!!!

[nutmeg]

I can't believe we are losing this game... 7-4. And the Yanks just won.... Cleveland is winning.

What a train wreck... >:-(

[nutmeg]

I CANNOT believe we are losing this one!!!

[misterrob]

Plenty of opportunities to have scored more runs but when your bullpen melts down in the clutch you are screwed. No excuse for this disaster. Yanks are 9-1 in their last 10 games.

Someone wants it, someone doesn't.

[JohnnyZ]

TIMLIN SUCKS!!!!!!

Timlin has had a great year and is allowed to have a bad game. But that was just shameful.

Wake should have at least 18 wins now.

[nutmeg]

TB wins... Red Sox go down in a whimper, fall out of first place, and are not even in the Wild Card race. NESN announcers Jerry Remy and Don Orsillo sound physically sick.

We have tix to Friday's and Saturday's games in Baltimore. At the moment I'm not sure I want to bother making that trip down...

[NeoCaveman]

Going to the bottom of the 8th. 5-0 Tribe.