Because there's just so many possibilities (there's 4 drivers that can fall out of the top 10 and 6, including Gordon, that can climb back in), I'll stick with the simple. He'll need some help. If he wins, and both McMurray and Newman finish no better than 8th, he's in. If, at the end of Richmond, he's in any sort of tie for 10th, he's in because he would hold the tiebreaker with at least 3 wins (nobody else can end up at 10th with more than 2).
And another thing...
WHO made the decision to stay out and NOT get any tires...if it was Looser Loomis I hope he's FIRED!
Coming to grips with reality today...Unnnggghhhhh!!!