Posted on 08/24/2005 4:29:11 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY #3
000
WTNT42 KNHC 240857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS... IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT
$$
In other news...
Nine states in the northeastern United States have decided to sip the Kyoto kool-aid. In a regional agreement, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont have decided that power plant emissions of carbon dioxide, in the aggregate, will be frozen at current levels and then reduced by 10 percent by 2020. Most interesting, the deal was done through confidential(!!) memoranda between the governors of those states. THE PEOPLE OF THESE STATES HAD NO SAY!
The mother of Michael Jackson's accuser in the recent trial has now been charged with welfare fraud.
The Secretary of Homeland Security has said that increasing border security along the United States southern border will be a priority.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Congratulations, Chair!
Happy Birthday, bitwhacker and sittin yonder!
Howdy SY, welcome.
I'm watching Katrina too, and praying for some rain here, but also for NO damage to anyone.
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/145105W_sm.gif)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 241501
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI... AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD.
KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT
$$
Consider the formality done.
;-)
Signed, sealed and delivered by
Nice, very nice!!
LOL! :))
Drum Roll Please!
Well, guess what? We have that all year-round, now , LESS Bugs or Daffy AND it costs about 33 x's more..
Lucky us. :-)
I remember the summer matinees. One month it was all Beach movies, the next month all horror. They ran them on Tues and Thurs. I believe. We had a great time. So cheap back then. And so safe.
Bulkeley teaches at the Berkeley.
And Most of those Libs are sleepwalking thru 99% of their lives.
We demand that the pharmaceuticals develop a bizarre dream pill for the conservatives to be taken twice daily with a veggie diet... only. Pills are good..pills are fun..
Crash!
For some reason...maybe because we live 300 feet from the road..the back of the house has priority.
I know, I know...I should have had the garden wagon with me when I trimmed...but...I was too lazy to get it and too eager to trim.
What a difference! I let the bushes get far too high.
I'm happy.
The trimming will be done more frequently...lower and away from the house...at least every 2 years. I'm not going to lop 3 inch in diameter limbs again. Ouch!!
Just did an extremely quick lurk and saw you 2 talking about the DVD of "Inside 911". I had seen others asking about NGC replaying it. According to my cable TV channel listings, it is going to be replayed next Monday (part 1) and Tuesday (part 2) at 2 AM both times mountain on NGC. I am normally up at this time and I will be recording it since I missed the first go-round.
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Is there ANYBODY with a whinier and more annoying voice than Ceci? And that prissy "I'm more right than anybody" attitude totally alienates me. Whatever happened to Mara Liasson? Ceci even makes Mara and Juan look moderate.
Welcome!
Go Dawgs!!!!!!!!!
Daughter was a UGA Cheerleader. Hubby and I loved going to the games! We flew to most of the home games and a couple of the away games. There's nothing like Georgia football!
(Btw..........Jemian will probably comment on this. She's an Auburn alumna/fan, and her daughter attends Auburn.)
;o)
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