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To: GOP_1900AD
Theories are often proven by elucidating predictions, then observing whether or not the predictions correspond with reality. Peak oil is supported by many well connected and level headed people in the oil industry - and exponentially increasing prices is its major prediction (diminishing supply + inelastic (and growing) demand = (wildly) increasing prices). Seems to be happening. Now if we watch total production figures, and see that they have leveled off this year, and trend down next year, well, that's sufficient to alarm me.

So what have you got? A conspiracy of oil sheiks moving the price up cause they are greedy? Too much speculation? George Soros? GWB?

65 posted on 08/10/2005 4:55:19 PM PDT by GregoryFul
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To: GregoryFul

What we've got is very simple. Commodity scammers have learned how to rile up the Peak Oilers who then sow fear of shortages and "the end of affordable oil." On top of this, additional fear is sown about "possible terror attacks in Saudi Arabia" or even, the 18 wheeler towing oil that flipped over on the interstate or any of the typical fires that happen from time to time at refineries. This causes artificial price inflation. Small time investors flock to the market. The price goes up even more due to speculation. Then, inevitably, the market does respond, albeit slowly, since there is reluctance to risk major capital outlays on anything but the surest thing, because the memory of the 1980s oil bust is long and painful, especially in places like Houston and California. As this slow increase in supply happens, the market inevitably starts to soften. Those who got in too late panic - they take to the web, hoping to crank up the fear and worry that initially caused a rise in price. There starts to be a series of dead cat bounces, as the tension between actual supply and demand dynamics versus emotional investing and speculation, becomes more intense. Some of these bounces are remarkable and result in new all time high prices. But lo and behold: At some point, the froth can no longer be sustained. Woe to the late arrivals in this market.


67 posted on 08/10/2005 5:05:16 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the"and Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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