Time to get out of US equities

various markets | 08/09/05 | MB Poe

[MichaelP]

The spike to almost 65$ oil today is a signal to get out of US equities. The last week's drop and the continued upward curve from the dow say we are headed for a big drop in most stocks. If you aren't in energy, you had better be in emerging markets. I made the move today.

Mike

[OB1kNOb]

bookmark

[tje]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is 4X?

thanks

[MichaelP]

I'm sure the guys who make the big money to consider that stuff have already considered the opportunities, and that current price of equities reflect that

That's not true! There are people that concentrate on energy, that it true. However, it's a small percentage of investors. You can't be an expert on everything!

Mike

[tomahawk]

Foreign exchange (currencies).

[durasell]

forex is the base jumping of investing...currency speculation.

[Moral Hazard]

"That's not true! There are people that concentrate on energy, that it true. However, it's a small percentage of investors. You can't be an expert on everything!"

It doesn't take very many analysts concentrating on an area to set an efficient price.

[tje]

Thanks... I still have some francs (??) and cook island dollars from my travels.. I'll keep it at that..

[SwankyC]

I'll bite, what's 4X?

[Phsstpok]

The spike to almost 65$ oil today is a signal to get out of US equities.

Ah, a George Soros drone! Well done. Working the script for "breaking the Federal Reserve" exactly the same way he "broke the Bank of England."

Our economy may yet tank. It will NOT be a natural occurance but the result of blatant manipulation by enemies of our country and way of life.

War has been declared on us. If you think Bin Laden is the only one leading the attack then you are a fool.

Which side are you one?

[MichaelP]

Experts on energy investment research far more than daily price and cause. They throughly check out refinery flow, problems, shipping, local politics (such as venezula), accidents, orders, and regulation. It is a maze of incongruency. That is why it isn't cut and dry!

Mike

[HangnJudge]

My daddy always said that the worth of an equity was defined as half the money saying it was going to go up and half believing it would go down.

In an efficient market, all information is very rapidly factored into an equity
worth and, unless you have real-time awareness of changes in information,
you cannot predict the future direction of markets efficiently.
Subsequently, stock picking for amateurs is an inherently difficult task

[Moral Hazard]

"Experts on energy investment research far more than daily price and cause. They throughly check out refinery flow, problems, shipping, local politics (such as venezula), accidents, orders, and regulation. It is a maze of incongruency. That is why it isn't cut and dry!"

But to make money on energy stocks you have to be smarter than they are. Or lucky.

[durasell]

Dangerously close to being fitted for a tinfoil hat...

[Phsstpok]

Dangerously close to being fitted for a tinfoil hat...

Yep. You're right. George Soros is not the man who artificially broke the Pound and wiped out 100s or billions of pounds in equity for individual British pensioners. Never happened. Oh, and he isn't a convicted currency manipulator in France. Don't bother to look it up. Even the official record is all a lie.

Yep. You got me. Tin foil hat time. Pay no attention here, move along, move along.

By the way, may hat size is classified.

[MichaelP]

We do have almost real time info when it comes to commodities, particularily oil. There is a causal relationship with the equities market that you can plot. The curve has been very late with regard to this spike in oil. However, that has been because of the super low long term interest rates. With the hike today by the fed, and the appreciating of lonng rates over the last month, things look to realign. Economic law like physical law, doesn't change per whim....

Mike

[GOP_1900AD]

It's time to get out of the oil commodity. The MSM are worried about the wrong froth - there is more froth in the oil market than in real estate!

[durasell]

Soros played the market smart in England and he played it smart in Malaysia as well. He exploited weaknesses in their currencies to make money for his clients, which is/was his job.

If our markets crash, we'll have nobody to blame but ourselves. It wasn't Soros who talked us into buying all that Chinese stuff out of wal-mart. He wasn't the one that signed our names to wacky mortgage agreements or equity loans. Soros didn't convince congress to increase spending or turn us into the world's largest debtor nation. Nor did Soros take out all those credit cards in our name and reduce average savings to something approaching zero while borrowing all that expensive money for large screen TVs.

Actually, Soros has testified before congress that the international capital markets are dangerous. And Warren Buffett has been rambling on for years about fiscal responsibility and the over valued dollar. He's even bet against the dollar in a big way.

[GOP_1900AD]

I need to challenge something here. There really are no new rigs being bought - they are using very old ones. The reason? Banks believe that the current oil prices are froth, and do not want to get burned again like they did in the 1980s.

[GOP_1900AD]

Interesting. I hadn't even thought of that .... thanks!

[tortoise]

You're right. George Soros is not the man who artificially broke the Pound and wiped out 100s or billions of pounds in equity for individual British pensioners.

It could not really happen today. The viscosity is much lower and the computers are much smarter and quicker. Significant manipulation against fundamentals is a fine way to lose your shirt these days.