Time to get out of US equities

various markets | 08/09/05 | MB Poe

[MichaelP]

The spike to almost 65$ oil today is a signal to get out of US equities. The last week's drop and the continued upward curve from the dow say we are headed for a big drop in most stocks. If you aren't in energy, you had better be in emerging markets. I made the move today.

Mike

[BenLurkin]

Or cover your shorts -- just in case the market continues to move up.

Short sellers could really get hurt.

[Moral Hazard]

You got out of the market today? That is indeed momentous news!

[MichaelP]

I moved most to emerging markets

Mike

[RightWhale]

Calling the DJI high?

[6SJ7]

Cover your shorts? What's the point of being a pajamahadin if I have to cover my shorts?

[USA-Forever]

I Love Free Republic---But 99% Of the Stock--House--Oil--Gas--- Selling/ Buying Advice--SUCKS BAD!!!!!!!
Rather Believe My Broker!!!

[MichaelP]

The dow is high, but the energy shoe has been hanging all year. What happens when average joe says SH....T! We live 40 and 50 miles from work. We drive a gmc 4x4 that gets 13 mpg and a Gran Prix that gets 20. Think we might be looking to upgrade mil;eage?

Mike

[foofoopowder]

Adjusted for inflation, gas at the pump is cheaper than it was a couple of decades ago. And it's usually cheaper than buying individual bottles of water at convenience stores.

[MichaelP]

Guess that's been true....

Mike

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Wrong. My fund is up 32 percent.

[Moral Hazard]

"The dow is high, but the energy shoe has been hanging all year. What happens when average joe says SH....T! We live 40 and 50 miles from work. We drive a gmc 4x4 that gets 13 mpg and a Gran Prix that gets 20. Think we might be looking to upgrade mil;eage?"

So the problem is that people will be buying new, fuel-efficient cars? I don't see how that's going to do any harm to the market.

[MichaelP]

So is mine, ytd..... Where is it going to be in 90/120 days?

Mike

[spanalot]

No basis for the rise other than short term emotional - a reaction to drop in gasoline stocks due to temporary refinery shut downs this month.

Actually, oil stocks are UP.

Zig when everyone zags.

[PLMerite]

"So the problem is that people will be buying new, fuel-efficient cars?"

I haven't figured out how picking up a $400-500/month car payment is supposed to save me money when I'm only spending about $150/month on gas with the paid-off SUV I've got now.

[MichaelP]

I takes quite a while for buying trends to influence energy consumption. In the foreseeable future, we are faced with gas costing 2.25-3.50$. I'm talking 3 years! Now think what the investing opportunities are?

Mike

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I also bought Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (200 shares) and 100 shares of Valero. They are up > 100 percent and I like that,

[Moral Hazard]

"Now think what the investing opportunities are?"

I'm sure the guys who make the big money to consider that stuff have already considered the opportunities, and that current price of equities reflect that.

[MichaelP]

Oil infrastructure companies, particular drilling rigs. Mexican and canadian oil with refinery capabilities. US oil companies with plans of expanding refining and with reserves....

Mike