First, you have the current example of VOOM, the HD satellite system. People just aren't buying into it. By contrast, the iPod was an accessory to a wildly booming mp3 (pirate) market.
Secondly, the satellite vendors are going to be switching to advanced codecs like AVC (from MS) or H.264 (part of upgraded MPEG4). I suspect they can execute this switch much faster than Apple can build a whole new business, launch birds, sell set top boxes, etc. Unless, of course, they buy ailing VOOM and Tivo. Then they get a leg up. If that happens, all bets are off.
That's their reputation. But I can independently confirm that Steve Jobs has been considering satellite media distribution for a couple of years.
Unless, of course, they buy ailing VOOM and Tivo.
I could see Apple buying VOOM from Cablevision at a firesale price with a partner like - Sony.