Posted on 11/01/2004 6:32:04 AM PST by Jacobis
sKerry is doing better with new voters and young people. But Bush is doing better this cycle among blacks, Jews, evangelicals, Catholics, and women. He is way ahead on trustworthiness, the war on terror, and the likability factor. He has correctly tagged sKerry as a flipflopper and a Mass. liberal. There is something wrong with the polls that show Bush only slightly ahead.
There's only one poll that matters.
No, they are probably fairly accurate. Remember, a full 43% of the people would still vote for Bill Clinton. Probably half of the Kerry supporters don't even know that he is not Bill Clinton!
Polls are pointless.
Lets get out and make it a landslide.
I think there is another thing to mention here. The Zogby poll shows this race close and remember the Kerry campaign said they will challenge any state that is not in the margin of error of polls. I believe Zogby is really trying to help Kerry and the Dems this time around because he might know this is going to be a blowout for Bush and if the results are not in the margin of the polls then the Kerry campaign will challenge in the courts.
The polls are all over the place and I don't think they are picking up everything Bush has going in his favor. He will do better among blacks, Jews, and hispanics this time. He will also drive up Republican turnout to record levels. I trust Mason-Dixon and they tell me Bush will win.
That is a very good point. I would gather that the same methodology for 2000 is being used when its outdated.
i feel alittle better after watching a vegas odds maker on cnbc say that even though the polls are tied/close the professionals are overwhelmingly betting a bush win
said a bunch of other facts and stuff that i don't remember
First one to say that loses
I have been saying this for quite some time...its mind boggling. Not only is he up in these segments of society (or up higher than 2000), he's turning blue states red and others purple!!
For a simple example, say that President Bush got 10% of the 10 million purple-haired voters in 2000 and Gore got 90%. That would leave Gore with an 8 million vote advantage (9 million - 1 million = 8 million).
Now this year Bush is getting 20% and Kerry is getting 80%, but purple-haired turnout is projected to be 15 million. Even though Bush's percentage was up, Kerry would acutally increase the Democrat advantage to 9 million (12 million - 3 million = 9 million).
So as different demographic groups are weighted differently for projected turnout, you can see how apparently better poll percentages can be massaged into net vote deficits.
I heard one of the things not being considered in these polls:
There is a growing concern that people are NOT going to vote as they say they are!
"Liberals don't like to admit to being Liberal." Conservatives are proud to admit it!
No prob, Dems have been saying it for weeks. It's close, but Bush is consistently up.
It's definately going to be close. To add to post #13, according to most polls, Bush's numbers are slightly down with white, male voters which is a very large group so just one percentage lost is actually quite a large number. For instance, adding 5% of the black vote may only break him even if he loses just 1% of the white male vote.
Yes there is. The libs are using polls as tools, it should be clear by now.
BTW, "new" and "young" voters also translates into "naive", "impressionable", and "ignorant" as pertaining to politics and economics, and the way this country runs as well.
That's the million dollar question. Can Kerry get more purple-haired people to turnout. I have no doubt that the President will turnout his base at a higher rate than 2000.
YES, YES, YES !!!. The BC/04 team has 300 paid staffers in FL working the GOTV effort and they say that OH is the best organized GOTV team they've ever seen.
BUSH WINS !!!
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