There's only one poll that matters.
No, they are probably fairly accurate. Remember, a full 43% of the people would still vote for Bill Clinton. Probably half of the Kerry supporters don't even know that he is not Bill Clinton!
Polls are pointless.
Lets get out and make it a landslide.
I think there is another thing to mention here. The Zogby poll shows this race close and remember the Kerry campaign said they will challenge any state that is not in the margin of error of polls. I believe Zogby is really trying to help Kerry and the Dems this time around because he might know this is going to be a blowout for Bush and if the results are not in the margin of the polls then the Kerry campaign will challenge in the courts.
The polls are all over the place and I don't think they are picking up everything Bush has going in his favor. He will do better among blacks, Jews, and hispanics this time. He will also drive up Republican turnout to record levels. I trust Mason-Dixon and they tell me Bush will win.
That is a very good point. I would gather that the same methodology for 2000 is being used when its outdated.
I have been saying this for quite some time...its mind boggling. Not only is he up in these segments of society (or up higher than 2000), he's turning blue states red and others purple!!
For a simple example, say that President Bush got 10% of the 10 million purple-haired voters in 2000 and Gore got 90%. That would leave Gore with an 8 million vote advantage (9 million - 1 million = 8 million).
Now this year Bush is getting 20% and Kerry is getting 80%, but purple-haired turnout is projected to be 15 million. Even though Bush's percentage was up, Kerry would acutally increase the Democrat advantage to 9 million (12 million - 3 million = 9 million).
So as different demographic groups are weighted differently for projected turnout, you can see how apparently better poll percentages can be massaged into net vote deficits.
It's definately going to be close. To add to post #13, according to most polls, Bush's numbers are slightly down with white, male voters which is a very large group so just one percentage lost is actually quite a large number. For instance, adding 5% of the black vote may only break him even if he loses just 1% of the white male vote.
Yes there is. The libs are using polls as tools, it should be clear by now.
BTW, "new" and "young" voters also translates into "naive", "impressionable", and "ignorant" as pertaining to politics and economics, and the way this country runs as well.
First of all , these polls only take in a small sample.
My recollection is that it alway looks about 2-3 percentage
points worse for the Repubs. in these polls. I am careful
to be optimistic,but I have few friends who actually like
Kerry. They either hate Bush, cause they think he cheated
to get President (electorally challenged folk), or they
like the U.S. government to be planning their life for them
so they can spend their time on the pleasures of life
before they die. But by far, almost 75 to 25, my friends go
for Bush....I also have another observation. I was recently in
a town known for its liberal "democratic" ambience. There
was a small parade of people demonstrating against Bush
walking down the main street. Most people didn't even bother
to yell in agreement, or honk or whistle or anything. They
didn't even pay attention. Back in the 60's this kind of
"ho-hum" attitude for a cause would not occur. I don't see
the overt hatred that I remember seeing for Lyndon Johnson,
or Hubert Humphrey where everyone was angry. This looks like
a bunch of loud folks who are afraid their governmental
meal ticket is gonna be taken away (and they forgot to
plan ahead).
So, I too, don't know why the polls have it so close. However
there is no accounting for bad taste. Consider some fast
food hamburger joints, MTV, etc....