Tradesports bettors feel Bin Laden tape helps Kerry

Tradesports.com ^ | 29 Oct 04 | Tradesports.com

[Sooth2222]

IEM vote-share market has been running about the same as usual today.

My explanation of Tradesports is that it's in Dublin, Ireland and Kerry could probably be elected King of the World (except for US, Poland, Russia and Israel). Certainly King of Ireland and France.

So could the numbers be due to unfounded optimism on the part of the "investors"? It happens. Remember when there were internet stocks (now bankrupt) that had their earnings discounted into the hereafter? There may be a thought that Americans will respond the same way that the Spanish did to the terrorist attack right before their election, when they replaced the conservatives with Socialists. Could the Tradesports gamblers be RIGHT? We'll see, but if they are, it's really scary!

[flashbunny]

sorry, but it's only scary if you lack a spine and your head is filled with mush. This isn't a topic that demands 5 or 6 new vanity threads a day. It has nothing to do with the outcome of the election.

First it was amusing, but all the wild mood swings based on the hiccup of a betting market that can be easily manipulated is just tiresome and idiotic.

[sdcraigo]

This blatant manipulation has been going on for almost two full days - it has nothing to do with anything tangible. One week ago, Bush was at 63.0. Now he's at 50.8 - a 12.2 point swing - from what? The NYT explosive BS - I think not. It's MANIPULATION. I think IEM is also being manipulated in basically the same manner. So I do not believe that either Tradesport or IEM is a viable barometer anymore.

[toomanygrasshoppers]

I agree.

[ThinkDifferent]

To quote this market as the equivalent of polling is not a valid thing.

Well, evidence suggests they're more accurate than polls.

The Favorite in thoroughbred horse racing wins 30% of the time. A Favorite is determined by how much money is bet on a horse.

And since there are generally more than 3 horses in a race, the "market" does a pretty good job.

[Owen]

Really, it doesn't. Many horse races are only 4 or 5 contestants. The 30% number is famous in racing and was averaged over all races. If money was smart, favorites would win far more often.

Last few years we've had horses on the cusp of the Triple Crown. That last race the winner of the previous two was the solid favorite. Lost every time.

[Warlord]

"I think IEM is also being manipulated in basically the same manner. So I do not believe that either Tradesport or IEM is a viable barometer anymore."

I agree, since the debates. I think the manipulation effort is a reaction to the conservative economic types who pointed to the "futures" markets as signals of Bush strength. Creating the appropriate "buzz" is the essence of progressive campaigning.