Replies

CAT IV HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY #19

DISCUSSION

...KARL MAY BE AT MAXIMUM STRENGTH...

KARL shows an image on satellite photos that supports an intensity of 140 MPH, but cloud tops near the eye are beginning to warm--suggesting the hurricane has probably "maxed out". Track guidance is a little different than previous, but not substantially.

WATCHES/WARNINGS

[None at this time.]

STORM DATA

Fix Time: 5 AM ET/AT (1500Z)

Location: 20.1N by 47.5W, or 1025 miles E of the Lesser Antilles.

Vector: NNW at 12 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Winds: 140 MPH 1-minute sustained. Strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.

Pressure: 940 MB or 27.76"

Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 140 miles.

Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 400 miles.

Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A

Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS

[None at this time.]

NEXRAD IMAGERY

[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]

SLOSH DATA

[None at this time.]

TOD DATA

[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]

STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION

[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]

INTEREST WATCH AREA

KARL is only a threat to shipping.

TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY #8

DISCUSSION

...LISA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...INTEREST AREA IDENTIFIED...

LISA remains a tiny storm.

Let's start with the track guidance. There are three possible solutions.

1. LISA continues westward as KARL moves away, and a HP ridge develops between the two cyclones. This is the solution favored by the NHC98 model.

2. LISA follows in train behind KARL. This is the solution favored by NOGAPS and UKMET.

3. LISA moves to the SW as the disturbance behind it (yes, this season is FAR from over!) intensifies.

Since there aren't any indications solutions two and three are occurring, the first is adopted. A slight move to the NW at VT forecast plus five days is introduced as there should be a weakness in the HP ridge north of LISA at that point--if the cyclone survives.

And that brings us to intensity. Significant shear is working on the system, predominantly north winds from the outflow out of KARL. This could considerably damage LISA. Then there's the new disturbance to the east of LISA. It is possible that LISA could be absorbed by the new disturbance.

IF LISA survives to VT forecast plus five days, it will be a hurricane.

WATCHES/WARNINGS

[None at this time.]

STORM DATA

Fix Time: 5 AM ET/AT (0900Z)

Location: 14.0N by 38.9W, or 1005 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands.

Vector: W at 12 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Winds: 60 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours.

Pressure: 998 MB or 29.47"

Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.

Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles.

Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A

Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS

[None at this time.]

NEXRAD IMAGERY

[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]

SLOSH DATA

[None at this time.]

TOD DATA

[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]

STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION

[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]

INTEREST WATCH AREA

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of LISA.

The Criminal Party admits the documents are false, but Terry McAwful is pressing on: "Now that we know what's not true, let's focus on the facts..." [Yeah, right.]

Oh give me a freakin' break! The RATs and mcawful wouldn't be able to recognize the "facts" or the "truth" if they jumped up and bit them on the hillary!

It is so obvious there was/is coordinated collusion between the RATs-SeeBS-kerry-dnc on this debacle. How else do they intend to explain how kerry was bragging to reporters on his plane that this show was "must see TV" (weeks before it aired), or how they had ads produced, purchased, and ready to go the very next day (after the show aired) featuring clips from the 60 minutes show and gunga dan the forgery man, or the simple fact that johnny-effin's campaign communications director, joe-kneepads-lockjaw was put in contact with burkett via SeeBS....no, no coordination here folks. Move along, nothing to see here...

This is starting to make Watergate look like jaywalking in comparison!