THE PASSION -- A BLOCKBUSTER IN THE MAKING?!

Yahoo News ^ | 02-20-04 | yahoo

[CWW]

'Passion' poised for heavenly B.O.

Mon Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET

Carl DiOrio

(Variety) The movie that couldn't find a distributor a year ago is now poised to become this year's first surprise hit.

Though not a single television ad has aired for "The Passion of the Christ" two weeks before its release, Mel Gibson (news)'s depiction of the crucifixion of Jesus is eclipsing mainstream Hollywood fare in audience interest.

Fostered by wide media coverage and a grassroots marketing campaign aimed at evangelical Christians, "Passion" is registering numbers on recent surveys by Nielsen NRG that suggest an opening in the $15 million-$30 million range.

The figures top those for pics whose heavy TV campaigns are well under way, such as Adam Sandler (news) laffer "50 First Dates," which opens Friday, and Warner Bros.' "Welcome to Mooseport," which will opens Feb. 27, two days post-"Passion."

Icon Prods. and its domestic distrib partner Newmarket Films won't start a TV ad campaign until later this week.

Not that they've needed one.

The film, and the controversy over whether it is anti-Semitic, has kept the media's attention on "Passion."

This week, star James Caviezel is on the cover of Newsweek in character as Jesus with the headline, "Who Really Killed Jesus?" Next Monday, ABC's "Primetime Live" devotes a full hour in sweeps to "Passion," including an interview of Gibson by Diane Sawyer.

"It's one of the most talked about films since the first 'Star Wars' prequel," said Exhibitor Relations prexy Paul Dergarabedian.

The anti-Semitism debate has probably helped the pic, he said.

"Controversy is a double-edged sword. It can either boost your chances or derail you," Dergarabedian added. With "Passion," "People are intrigued. I've never seen all these pieces of the puzzle come together before."

Tracking numbers on "Passion" are a far cry from the dismal commercial expectations once widely held, even by Gibson himself. At a 2002 press conference announcing the project, he said, "No one wants to touch something in two dead languages. They think I'm insane --- maybe I am."

In the most recent NRG poll, 16% picked "The Passion" as their first-choice pic to see the weekend it opens. "50 First Dates" drew 13%.

Among pics opening that weekend, the No. 2 first-choice pick is DreamWorks' teen raunchfest "Eurotrip" at 3%. Along with it and "Mooseport," other openers that weekend are the Meg Ryan (news) boxing drama "Against the Ropes" and Disney's "Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen." Last year, late February saw "Old School" open at $17.4 milion and "Cradle 2 the Grave" open to $16.5 million.

Tracking data show interest in "Passion" skewing toward older filmgoers but equally balanced between men and women.

Total awareness for "Passion" is 60%, but much higher among men and women over 25, where it tops 80%. First-choice ratings for men and women over 25 is 23%, while it is rated around 10% for those under 25.

Tracking data is tightly controlled by Nielsen NRG and its studio clients because predicting box office from NRG numbers is more of an art than a science.

Nonetheless, the big tracking numbers for "Passion" have created ripples at rival studios.

"They're very high --- expectedly so," said one distrib exec. "It's one of those films where awareness is high across all demos."

On another lot, an exec said, "The picture is going to open huge."

"Passion," which personally cost Gibson $25 million to produce, is set to be released on around 2,000 screens.

Making a "Passion" prediction is more difficult because there is not a similar pic --- a subtitled religious pic --- to which execs can compare it.

However, even if the film hit the low end of the estimated range, it would be an impressive feat for a picture featuring graphic violence, ancient-lingo dialogue and subtitles.

"Like everyone else, I have no idea how it's going to do," said Dergarabedian. "We don't have anything to go on."

Opening B.O. will be bolstered by unusual pre-sales.

Icon has pitched "Passion" as a tool for churches to recruit new members and encouraged congregations to buy out entire showings of the pic. Churches have responded by buying up blocks of tickets in the thousands.

Last week, online ticket seller Fandango reported that "Passion" tickets accounted for 43% of all its sales.

Though industry execs anticipate a big opening, they disagree on how it'll play long term.

One exec predicted, "I personally think it's going to do $100 million-plus."

Others, though, are more cautious. "I don't think there will be any repeat business," said one. "Everybody will say I've done my religious duty after they've seen it one time."

Copyright © 2003 Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. Variety is a registered trademark of Reed Elsevier Properties Inc. and used under license. All Rights Reserved.

[CWW]

Spread the Word!

[Rodney King]

Of course, its not a surprise to a lot of us. There were lots of FReepers who thought it would be a flop. If I had the time, I would go back and dig up their quotes.

[jern]

It is so rewarding to see a good guy like Mel Gibson put his money where his mouth is, and he will reap the rewards from it. Good job mel.

[Thane_Banquo]

I'd love it if the Passion does well. All the arguments about its supposed anti-semitism are actually attempts by leftists to discredit the film: The PC left will not accept any movie about Christ that doesn't show Him as insane, uncertain about his mission, hate-filled, or gay. If Christ is shown as who He is, the Son of God, the knee-jerk anti-Christian tendencies of the liberals will come out.

[princess leah]

"Everyone will say - I've done my religious duty" This guy doesn't have a clue about how far off he is - when people go see this film, they will want to take back others, who will see it and they will want to take others, and so on! I think it will go beyond $200 million and here's why - You can NEVER outgive God and Mel gave up $25 million to the Lord to see this project out - God is using Mel and his dedication and I can hardly wait to see not just the film but the response!

[mlmr]

So go twice and bring friends.

[ClearCase_guy]

"I don't think there will be any repeat business," said one.

I think that's wrong. And let's remember that there are probably 50 million Americans who refuse to see the movies that Hollywood makes these days -- but they may all want to see The Passion.

[LuigiBasco]

I agree Rodney

I anticipate this is going to be a hugh success.
I'm series!

Luigi.

[xJones]

The anti-Semitism debate has probably helped the pic, he said.

Take that, Abe Foxman!

[commish]

Others, though, are more cautious. "I don't think there will be any repeat business," said one. "Everybody will say I've done my religious duty after they've seen it one time."

This snide little remark shows just how scared Hollywierd is of this movie. They are absolutely terrified that the message and THE WORD is going to be seen and listened too my millions.

They know that the more business and press that The Passion gets, the more people that will turn away from the degradation and filth that people like this yahoo have staked thier lives on.

This guy epitomizes the Hollywierd community --in the words of Jack Nicholson. "The Truth? YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!"

[prairiebreeze]

Others, though, are more cautious. "I don't think there will be any repeat business," said one. "Everybody will say I've done my religious duty after they've seen it one time."

Snotty comment and probably from a studio who snubbed Gibson's request for distribution and would now like to secretly shoot itself in the head.

I've seen "Passion of The Christ". I was fortunate enough to attend a preview. I intend to see it again.

So at least one person (me) is going to prove this fool wrong and I suspect that many, many others will do the same.

Prairie

[CWW]

Personally, I might go see it every Friday in the 6-week period of Lent as avivid reminder of how Christ made it to Easter Sunday!

[Irene Adler]

This film will be shown for many years, all over the world. It will be a very powerful message, everywhere. Mel Gibson was not thinking short-term when he made this film. I will see the film, and I fervently hope that it will, indeed, be a huge success, right away. But I think that it's potential long-term effect will really be its greatest significance.

[prophetic]

I've not seen the private viewings but from what I hear I've a couple thought on it:

1. everyone should carry a pack of Kleenex

2. Every church should be VERY prepared to receive a large number of folks for salvation counselling & discipleship followup; even greater than ANYTHING they had ever had in their history.

[Irene Adler]

"....just how scared Hollywierd is of this movie. They are absolutely terrified that the message and THE WORD is going to be seen and listened too my millions."

Good point.

[prophetic]

not to mention how the people may turn away from the tripe/crap that Hollywood had been spewing all these years after seeing the Passion and experience Salvation by turning to Christ.

[Sgt_Schultze]

I heard Michael Savage comment on the violence against Jews complaint. He noticed that the guilty party was the Romans, and nobody he know has even taken the slight protest of swearing-off Italian food.

[prairiebreeze]

Personally, I might go see it every Friday in the 6-week period of Lent

Good idea! Most people who sees this film are going to have an extraordinary Lent and Easter. Seeing it during that time will be simply incredible. Seeing it on Good Friday or anytime during Holy Week......indescribable.

Prairie

[joenpati]

Is this the same liberal,non-believing media saying the Passion is too violent & bloody but has no problem pumping out movies full of bodily dismemberment, killings, drugs & all manner of gore and violence ???? (go figure!) Mel didn't do this for the money. He followed his heart and made a movie about the suffering of Christ.In which case,I believe he could receive 10 fold. And if he does,you can look for him to advance the Lord's kingdom with it. YOU GO,MEL !!!!! :o)