New Dem doubts halt dean momentum Deb Orin
Nervous Dems eye Dean's progress Don Lambro
Senior Republican campaign officials, in fact, cautiously downplay Mr. Bush's recent rise in the polls, noting the difference in a general-approval rating and specific re-election poll numbers. They expect the president's support to drop when the Democrats finally choose their nominee in Boston this summer.
That is just a CYA statement that you can prove wrong by the polls. The polling questions are like this. If the presdential election were held today would you vote for Bush or the Democatic nominee? The results of this poll say 48 percent for Bush and 47 percent for the Democrat.
But when the question is, If the Presidential election were held today and the candidates were Bush and Dean, whom would you vote for? This resuts in 54 percent for Bush and 40 percent for Dean. Hillary runs the best in this question... 52 for Bush to 42 for Hillary.
The problem with Bush against generic democrat, is that a centrist who would vote for Lieberman over Bush will be in the anti Bush column. But if the candidate is Dean that same voter will be in the Bush coluumn. The Generic Democrat question allows the person polled to pick their most desireable candidate.
Once the race becomes Bush against a real person, the Bush numbers will go up. In every case on record the specific numbers,(incubent against nominee) are always better for the incumbent than the generic numbers (incembent against opposite party).