Posted on 11/04/2026 3:10:28 PM PST by grundle
I asked Grok:
Compare and contrast the rate of rebuilding after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake with the rate after the 2025 Pacific Palisades fire. Explain why this difference exists. Talk about the ease or difficulty of getting a building permit, red tape and bureaucracy, environmental regulations, and any other relevant reasons for the difference.
This is Grok’s answer:
After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fires, rebuilding was dramatically faster than after the January 2025 Pacific Palisades (and related Eaton) fires. The city largely recovered its built environment and commercial activity within about 3 years (essentially complete by ~1909–1910, with a major showcase via the 1915 Panama-Pacific International Exposition), while the Palisades recovery remains very slow nearly 2 years later, with only a tiny fraction of homes completed.
Scale and Pace Comparison
1906 San Francisco: The disaster destroyed roughly 28,000 buildings across ~500 city blocks, killed ~3,000 people, and left over 200,000 homeless (out of a population of ~400,000). Rebuilding was rapid. Private building contracts jumped sharply (e.g., ~$39–50 million in the immediate years vs. $20 million pre-disaster). By one year later, building permits exceeded $50 million (far outpacing prior disasters like the Baltimore fire), with tens of thousands of workers involved and major structures (hotels, banks, commercial buildings) reopening or under construction quickly. By three years, ~20,000 buildings had been erected; the city was “practically brand new” in key areas, population recovered, and commercial activity resumed. Temporary “earthquake cottages” housed many in the interim, and debris clearance and infrastructure restoration happened in weeks to months.
2025 Pacific Palisades fire (part of the January 2025 LA wildfires that also hit Altadena via the Eaton Fire): The Palisades Fire alone destroyed roughly 4,000–5,000+ residences (with combined LA fires destroying ~11,000 homes or more structures). As of late 2025 (about 1 year later), only ~12–14% of destroyed homes in the Palisades/Altadena areas had rebuilding permits issued (hundreds of permits, but a small share of the total). The first certificates of occupancy (allowing occupancy of completed homes) appeared around 10–11 months post-fire. By ~15 months, only a few dozen homes were completed across the affected areas. By nearly 2 years (October 2026 reports), only ~66 certificates of occupancy had been issued in the Palisades (~1% of homes lost), with limited new builds completed and many lots sold but little full reconstruction. Permitting and construction continue but at a modest pace relative to the destruction.
In short: SF achieved broad reconstruction of tens of thousands of buildings in a few years. The Palisades has seen only a small percentage even permitted for rebuild, and a tiny fraction actually completed, after a similar or longer elapsed time.
Why the Difference? Permits, Red Tape, Bureaucracy, Environmental Rules, and Other Factors
The core reasons are the radically different regulatory, legal, institutional, and economic environments of 1906 versus the mid-2020s in California. Early 20th-century San Francisco operated with far fewer constraints; modern LA/California layers extensive reviews, codes, environmental laws, insurance systems, and multi-agency processes that slow even “streamlined” disaster recovery.
Ease of getting a building permit and overall bureaucracy/red tape: In 1906, there were essentially no modern zoning codes (SF’s first came in 1921), limited building codes (a basic one arrived in 1907 and was lightly enforced amid the rush), and minimal permitting formalities. Construction could begin quickly once owners, capital, labor, and materials aligned. Business and civic leaders prioritized speed to retain the city’s economic status against rivals like LA; grand redesign plans (e.g., Burnham’s) were largely scrapped in favor of rapid like-for-like rebuilding on existing street grids. Debris clearance was aggressive, temporary housing was deployed fast, and private initiative drove the process with relatively little governmental gatekeeping.
In contrast, modern California/LA requires extensive multi-agency clearances (Building & Safety, Planning, utilities, engineering, fire, etc.—often a dozen or more). Even after emergency executive orders by Mayor Bass and Governor Newsom to cut red tape (waiving some reviews, aiming for faster plan checks, self-certification pilots, reduced clearances for like-for-like rebuilds), average permit processing still takes weeks to months (e.g., ~55–79 days city, longer for county; sometimes 90+ days reported). Applications face incomplete submissions, conflicting inspector guidance, corrections loops, understaffing, and coordination failures across departments. Only a minority of destroyed parcels have even applied for permits years later. Residents report the process as a “maze” or “fight,” with some needing numerous clearances for a single house. Coastal Zone rules (much of the Palisades) add further layers under the California Coastal Act.
Environmental regulations and related rules: These were largely nonexistent or negligible in 1906. Today, even with post-fire suspensions/waivers of some CEQA (California Environmental Quality Act) reviews, coastal permitting requirements, certain green-building mandates (e.g., rooftop solar in some cases), and code updates, residual environmental, fire-hazard, geologic, and resilience requirements remain. Updated fire hazard severity zone maps can trigger stricter building standards mid-process. Like-for-like rebuilds get preferential treatment, but any significant changes (size, footprint, layout for better resilience or livability) often lose streamlining and face extra scrutiny. Prop 13 property tax rules also incentivize minimal changes to preserve lower assessed values. These create status-quo bias and added time/cost.
Other major contributing factors:
Insurance and financing gaps: 1906 recovery relied heavily on private capital, insurance (despite disputes), and local initiative. Today, insurance shortfalls, delayed/underpaid claims, high construction costs ($450–$1,500+/sq ft reported), and labor/supply-chain constraints leave many owners underfunded or forced to sell lots. This is frequently cited as a bigger barrier than permitting alone once applications are filed.
Labor, materials, costs, and scale of modern construction: 1906 used simpler wood/brick methods with abundant labor mobilized quickly. Modern builds involve complex codes for seismic/fire resistance, higher material/labor costs, and skilled trades shortages.
Institutional priorities and culture: 1906 elites explicitly chose speed over perfection or beautification to keep the city viable. Modern systems emphasize safety, equity, environmental protection, liability avoidance, and process—valuable goals that inherently trade off against speed. Political promises of “fastest recovery” have not fully overcome structural inertia, staffing limits, or multi-jurisdictional complexity (city vs. county, coastal rules, etc.).
Temporary housing and interim solutions: SF rapidly built and later relocated thousands of cottages. Modern recovery has fewer comparable large-scale temporary options for homeowners.
In essence, 1906 occurred in a low-regulation, high-private-initiative environment where the imperative was to rebuild now with whatever was available. The 2025 fires occur in a high-regulation environment of layered bureaucracy, environmental and safety codes, insurance market dysfunction, and elevated costs—even after deliberate streamlining efforts. The result is a much slower pace of actual reconstruction, despite technological advantages in construction methods and communications. Some of the modern friction improves long-term safety and quality; much of it reflects accumulated process that prioritizes review over rapid restoration.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/The-Great-Quake-1906-2006-Rising-from-the-ashes-2537103.php
https://sasn.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/2024-02/2010-004.pdf
https://library.sfgenealogy.org/projects/1906/06later.htm
https://www.vox.com/climate/474478/la-fires-los-angeles-eaton-palisades-rebuild-anniversary
https://cityjournal.substack.com/p/los-angeles-wants-to-rebuild-red
https://xtown.la/2026/01/05/post-fire-rebuilding-palisades/
(end of Grok’s response)
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You know, if you stop asking Grok questions, it’ll stop
giving you junk to post on your blog and the world will be
a much better place for all mankind.
Thanks for the starkest possible lesson on the contrast between California when it was sane, a hundred years ago, and now, when it’s insane. Unfortunately, the way California is now is an indication of what the entire country will be like in short order if present political trends continue.
I aksed Grok where do babies come from and it said go aks Alexa.
No over powered government agencies then
Mercy.
6 years after the Almeda fire in Southern Oregon and not much has been built back... nothing like what we had. It’s government housing for illegals and lifetime welfare people. Those of us self sufficient and just above poverty level are out of luck.
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