Posted on 09/21/2026 4:03:34 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
James Talarico has gained ground in the closely watched Texas Senate race, with several prediction markets and election forecasters increasingly characterizing the contest as competitive, despite the state's long-standing Republican lean.
Kalshi, a prediction market, currently gives the Democratic State Representative Talarico a 59 percent chance of winning the November election, compared with 41 percent for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Another prediction market, Polymarket, similarly puts Talarico at 60 percent and Paxton at 41 percent; prediction market shares can occasionally sum to over 100 percent due to market spreads.
Meanwhile, Fox News' latest Power Rankings forecast has shifted the Texas Senate contest from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up."
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
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I find it hard to believe.
I couldn’t even tell you who Talarico is running against. There’s no energy from Republicans in Texas.
BS
IIRC the butt-boy was going to beat Cruz at one point.
Funny him Newsweak ignores the MN senate race
Is Paxton even trying to win this seat.
I’ve seen next to nothing from him!
The freak is everywhere, and media pukes love him , but Paxton seems MIA next to this absolute freak show!!
GTFOYA PAXTON!!!!!
I have a sneaking suspicion that the left has figured out how to make the money prediction markets fraudulently predict their victory, which they then can ensure by their election fraud.
Why would anyone listen to you about “energy” in TX!? WTF do you know other than yard signs?
When will we be able to reach consensus that a bunch of compulsive gambler randos on Polymarket and Kalshi have no greater insight than you or me on how it’s going to turn out? The notion that their opinion means more because they’re willing to put money on the line is of dubious validity at best
Once it is leaked to Texas voters that Talarico thinks there are six genders his campaign will be lucky to draw single digits.
The steal ares/is real an the dims count it both before and more so after ‘R’
wards to win baby wink wink win
Or as we see it cheat till you win.
Somebody put a plug in this crap
Exactly. The fraud is justified by the phony polls. But if the level of fraud can be reduced, the whole scheme falls apart. I am predicting less successful fraud this time.
lol. I’m in New Mexico and every time I cross the state line I get texts to support Paxton.
Talarico is using his 100 million in outside donations to bid up the betting markets.
I’m not saying it’s not possible, but I’ve never seen a political poll in my life that put the GOP ahead. Including in 1984, when Reagan killed Mondale.
Do they use voting machines in Texas?
Which? Dominion, Sequoia, Smartmatic... all run the same Venezuelan source code.
What’s an outside donation and can we get some outside donations to Ken Paxton?
I mean they came from out of state.
I do think creepers should bet on Paxton.
I think they have some bombshell that they are waiting for the right time to drop.
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