Really?
Posted on 08/12/2026 1:58:42 PM PDT by lonestar67
TALARICO (D) PAXTON (R) SPREAD RCP Average 6/3 - 7/30 — — 46.0 44.4 Talarico +1.6 Texas A&M/Siena 7/27 - 7/30 619 LV 4.7 47 43 Talarico +4 TSU/YouGov* 7/27 - 7/30 1200 LV 2.8 47 45 Talarico +2 FOX News 7/23 - 7/27 1006 RV 3.0 51 48 Talarico +3 TPOR** 7/15 - 7/17 1048 LV 3.4 45 40 Talarico +5 NY Times/Siena 6/19 - 6/27 656 LV 4.5 47 47 Tie University of Texas* 6/5 - 6/12 1200 RV 2.8 42 43 Paxton +1 Quantus Insights 6/3 - 6/4 800 LV 3.5 43 45 Paxton +2
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolling.com ...
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1. They show that governor abbott has only a one percent lead on hinajosa. That is the ceiling for skewing the polls that these pollsters are applying. So they are increasing Democratic sampling up to the point where they would have to make the ridiculous assertion that Abbott is losing.
2. Texans have shown up huge for Paxton multiple times in many elections. For people who have any reluctance about Paxton I urge you to watch the closing arguments of his impeachment trial which was an absolute sham. The closing arguments make clear that there is not credible case against the good work of attorney general Ken Paxton.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kus4xo9si0E
3. If you look at the Texas pulse poll it says this:
"Likely voters say the tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials have gone too far rather than not far enough, 57-11%, while 29% say they’ve been about right. Additionally, Texans oppose the way ICE agents are working to arrest people they suspect of being immigrants living illegally in the United States, 53-41%."
That is a dead give away that they oversampled democrats. Texans do not feel this way about ICE and anti ICE terrorists have killed immigrants here in Texas and tried to kill many ice agents. For Texas Pulse-- a likely voter is one who is anti ICE and to in favor of border enforcement. If this were remotely true Abbott would never win re-election.
4. Black voters have rejected Talarico because of Jasmine Crockett. That means he cannot win. The number of Trump voters in 2024 dwarfs the democratic primary vote of 2026. Of course there will be fewer voters in the midterms but a sizable number of democrats wanted Crockett and not Talarico. Crockett has repeatedly stressed that she will not help Talarico and still believes she was cheated. Texas Republicans showed up powerfully to crush John Cornyn. There is little evidence that Cornyn voters will vote for Talarico.
4. Texas Pulse says that Hinojosa in 30 days went from 31 percent favorable to 43 percent favorable. How is that remotely possible. No one in the State of Texas knowns who she is. She has done nothing newsworthy. I doubt anyone here or anywhere could name anything about her agenda or recent activity. All of that statistical jump is an indicative of a calculated oversampling of democrats and this is often done to create a false "trend".
5. The poll says respondents are only 44% in agreement with the statement that Texas is on the right track. 49% say it is not.
Really!?
It is by far the most possible destination in the Untied States and is growing economically faster than almost any other state or nation in the world. The oil price hikes poor more revenue into Texas in every possible way-- selling oil, refining it, taxing it. Our gas prices remain among the lowest in the nation. We provide 42% of all US oil production and US oil production is the highest in the world. But only 44% of Texans think we are going in the right direction and most texans do not want ICE to enforce the law. That is bald faced lying by Texas pulse and deliberate manipulation of polling data.
Bottom line: Do not believe the slew of democrat polls trying to demoralize Texas voters from showing up for Ken Paxton against Talarico.
Wow. 83 days out from the election. The Democrat is killing the Republican. Like happens in every poll since about 1972.
Interesting and your analysis makes sense. Given the election results in last week and this, pollsters should be doing some serious soul searching about their samples
Demwits are home to answer their phones and have the time to answer surveys.
Conservatives/Republicans work, have busy families, and don’t have time to answer endless questions.
I know. I got a polling call the other night and had to end it when it went over 10 minutes. I told the guy I just didn’t have the time.
Polls are not to inform. They are to influence.
I used to answer polls but the last 2-3’times they started asking me sexually oriented questions which I found really inappropriate. I was already uncomfortable announcing household income and race to a stranger but seriously? So I stopped answering polls.
I mean this strange man asking me who I might like to do it with on the phone. Not ok.
One of Trump’s Pollster McGloughlin says most of the Texas polls are garbage and says —about the A&M they need to stick to football.
The Democrats core constituency is not going show up at the polls to vote for Talafreako. These bogus polls are not made up of likely voters.
Still say decent, rational people will not take an unsollicited call from a stranger and discuss their personal political opinions.
Really?
Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) Poll has almost 20% of undecideds say that Paxton would get their vote if they had to vote TODAY.
Abbott will beat Hinojosa like a red-headed step child.
Not as long as Black preachers can still be bought or rented.
Are they oversampling areas where people are complaining about data centers? Are stalwart Republicans going Nimby? is that a media strategy Dems are using with little substance?
Given the election results in last week and this, pollsters should be doing some serious soul searching about their samples.”
Oh, they know exactly what they’re doing.
Agreed. Paxton is another story.
Yeah, the same pollsters had the korean ho in WI up 22 points and she lost.
I believe in poles, not polls.
😉
Polls said Hillary was going to win in a landslide.........
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