Key primaries across 5 states Tuesday could shape fight for control of Congress

Voters in five states head to the polls Tuesday in primaries that could shape the fight for control of Congress.

Michigan’s marquee Democratic Senate primary will gauge the strength of progressives against the party establishment in a key battleground state, while Missouri features a high-profile rematch for a U.S. House seat.

Kansas Republicans are sorting through a crowded governor’s race as Democrats also pick Senate and gubernatorial nominees, Washington’s voting unfolds amid wildfires in the Spokane area, and Virginia will choose nominees in several competitive congressional districts that could help determine the next House majority.

Michigan voters will decide a competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary in a contest that not only has implications for control of the chamber next year but will also test the growing clout of the party’s progressive wing as well as that of a powerful pro-Israel organization.

The state is one of the nation’s most competitive electoral battlegrounds, as the last three presidential elections firmly established. In 2026, in addition to the pivotal U.S. Senate contest, Michigan will host fiercely contested races for governor, U.S. House and the state Legislature.

Progressives scored high-profile victories in the past year with the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s mayor and several U.S. House primaries where progressive candidates defeated longtime Democratic incumbents. While those contests all were waged on safe, heavily Democratic turf, the race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters is expected to be a marquee matchup in the November general election, raising the stakes of Tuesday’s Democratic primary between U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and former Detroit public health official Abdul El-Sayed.

Stevens has endorsements from much of the state’s Democratic establishment, including Peters, term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow and state Attorney General Dana Nessel. Her notable out-of-state backers include Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and South Carolina U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn.

El-Sayed has endorsements from prominent progressive leaders, including U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.

The winner will face former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination. Rogers ran for the state’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2024 but narrowly lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.

In the race for governor, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican U.S. Rep. John James are the front-runners in their primaries. Benson faces Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, while James’ lone remaining opponent is wealthy businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate Perry Johnson.

A handful of Michigan congressional districts could decide control of the U.S. House. Among the most competitive is the 7th District which includes Lansing, the state capital. The three-way Democratic primary features former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, community organizer William Lawrence and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. The winner will face freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett.

Competitive primaries are also underway to replace James in the 10th District and Stevens in the 11th District.

In the heavily Democratic 13th District anchored by Detroit, Shri Thanedar faces a tough primary challenge from state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who’s won endorsements from El-Sayed, Sanders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, Tlaib in the neighboring 12th Congressional District and several other of Thanedar’s progressive U.S. House colleagues.

A St. Louis-area congressman faces a Democratic primary rematch against the former congresswoman he previously ousted, a showdown that has again drawn the attention of a powerful pro-Israel organization.

The contest, as well as primaries for Missouri’s seven other U.S. House seats, will be the first held since Republican state lawmakers adopted a new congressional map backed by President Donald Trump that was designed to boost their party’s chances of keeping control of the chamber in November’s midterm elections.

In the St. Louis-based 1st Congressional District, freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell seeks a second term. He must first clear a strong primary challenge from his predecessor, former U.S. Rep. Cori Bush, who was a member of the group of progressive House members known as The Squad.

Bell defeated Bush in the 2024 primary by nearly 6 percentage points with the help of about $8.6 million in outside spending from the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, which promotes U.S.-Israel relations. Bush has been a vocal critic of Israel since its response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. The committee spent about $3.1 million in July against Bush and in support of Bell ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

The district is heavily Democratic. Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris received about 78% of the district vote in her unsuccessful 2024 presidential run against Trump.

On the other side of the state, Democratic U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver is running for a 12th term on much different turf than the compact, Kansas City-based district he’s represented for more than 20 years. The Republican-controlled state Legislature’s mid-decade redistricting plan carved up heavily Democratic Kansas City among three districts and stretched what remained of Cleaver’s 5th Congressional District eastward to pick up heavily Republican areas. Cleaver is now running in a district that Trump carried with about 58% of the vote, compared with the current 5th District, which supported Harris with about 61% of the vote.

The six Republicans running to challenge Cleaver in November include former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, state Sen. Rick Brattin and former law professor Brett Hueffmeier.

Voters will also decide the fates of four statewide ballot measures, including one that would make it harder to pass citizen-driven proposals to amend the state constitution and another that would eliminate the state income tax.

Amendment 4 would change the vote threshold required to pass voter-initiated ballot measures to amend the state constitution. Currently, only a simple statewide majority is needed to approve a constitutional amendment put on the ballot by voters. If Amendment 4 passes, a voter-initiated proposal would require a vote majority in each of the state’s congressional districts.

Amendment 5 would require the state Legislature to phase out individual income taxes in Missouri and expand sales taxes.

Kansas Republicans will narrow down a crowded field for governor in a state primary as they look to retake the state’s top office after eight years of Democratic rule. Democrats will decide competitive primaries for governor and U.S. Senate, while Kansans across the state will consider whether to amend the state constitution to allow direct election of state Supreme Court justices.

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, making the race to replace her a top takeover opportunity for Republicans. Although Kansas votes reliably Republican in statewide federal contests, the state also has a 60-year streak of electing governors from the opposite party of their immediate predecessors.

The Republican primary for governor will be the latest test of Trump’s influence in Republican primaries this year. He has endorsed state Senate President Ty Masterson over former state Rep. Charlotte O’Hara, financial services executive Philip Sarnecki, state Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab.

The Democratic primary field features state Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall seeks his party’s nomination for a second term and has Trump’s endorsement. Marshall won his 2020 primary with about 40% of the vote against former Secretary of State and current state Attorney General Kris Kobach.

He faces a quixotic primary challenge from Arch Naramore, who will appear on ballots under his middle name, Pond.

The crowded, 11-candidate field for the Democratic nomination includes former U.S. Department of Agriculture official Christy Davis, Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton, real estate developer and entrepreneur Erik Murray, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, retired financial services executive Sandy Spidel Neumann and marketing professional and Afghanistan War veteran Noah Taylor.

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Kansas since 1932. No Democrat has ever been elected to the seat Marshall holds since the state first began direct elections of U.S. Senators in 1914.

Voters will also decide a statewide ballot measure that would allow the direct election of state Supreme Court justices and remove the governor's role from the process. Under the current system, a commission of mostly attorneys compiles a list of three finalists to fill a state Supreme Court vacancy, and the governor makes the final choice.

Also on the ballot are contested primaries for U.S. House, secretary of state and state Board of Education. All 125 state House seats are up for election in 2026. Republicans control 70% of seats in the chamber.

Washington state will hold a primary for U.S. House and other offices as firefighters battle wildfires that have devastated the state's second-largest city, Spokane, and forced local officials to operate under a state of emergency.

Elections officials have advised voters in the affected areas to use a state website to verify whether the ballots they have cast have been received and how to obtain a replacement ballot if necessary. Voters have until 8 p.m. local time to have their ballots hand-postmarked at a U.S. Post Office or returned to a ballot drop box. One drop box in the evacuation zone will be closed once any remaining ballots are collected, according to a Spokane County advisory.

Roughly 67,000 people in the Spokane area are under evacuation orders. The state conducts elections almost entirely by mail with relatively little in-person voting.

A key U.S. House battleground this fall will be in the state's 3rd Congressional District in southwest Washington, bordering Oregon to the south and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is running for a third term in the seat she first won narrowly in 2022. She faces eight primary challengers, including Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who has a key endorsement from Trump.

Washington state has a top-two primary system in which all candidates compete on the same ballot and the two highest vote-getters regardless of party advance to the general election.

Trump received 50.3% of the vote from 3rd District voters in 2024, while Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris received 47%. Gluesenkamp Perez received 50.1% and 52% of the vote in the 2022 and 2024 general elections, respectively.

Incumbents are running for reelection in nine of the state’s 10 congressional districts. The exception is the 4th Congressional District, where Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Newhouse is retiring after six terms. Newhouse was among 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a mob of his supporters.

Eleven candidates are running to replace him, including Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and entrepreneur and former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, both Republicans. Trump endorsed McKinney in January on the five-year anniversary of the insurrection. He previously endorsed Sessler’s unsuccessful bid to unseat Newhouse in 2024. Trump received 59% of the 4th District vote in the presidential election that year.

About half of Washington’s 49 state Senate seats and all 98 state House seats are up in 2026. Democrats currently control about 60% of seats in each chamber.

Three of Washington’s nine state Supreme Court justices are on Tuesday’s ballot, including Chief Justice Debra Stephens. A fourth seat is open. Although state Supreme Court seats are nonpartisan, liberals hold a majority and the ideological balance of the court is not at stake.

For the third time in nine months, Virginia residents will vote in a statewide election, this time to choose nominees for U.S. Senate and U.S. House, including in some competitive swing districts that could decide control of the narrowly divided chamber in November.

The congressional primaries will take place using the commonwealth’s existing district boundaries. Voters approved a more Democratic-friendly map in April, but Virginia’s highest court invalidated the new boundaries less than three weeks later.

The failed effort to enact a new Virginia map was in response to a largely successful push by Trump and state lawmakers in several Republican-controlled states like Texas and Missouri to redraw their congressional maps ahead of schedule and boost their party’s chances of maintaining their fragile U.S. House majority.

Under the current map, Virginia’s most competitive U.S. House seat is likely in the 2nd Congressional District, where a rematch may be in the works between two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans and the Democrat she unseated in 2022, former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria.

Luria is among four Democrats seeking the nomination, but the retired Navy commander and former House Select Jan. 6 Committee member dwarfs the rest of the combined field in terms of fundraising and available cash as of mid-July. Kiggans, also a former Naval officer, is unopposed in the Republican primary.

A contested primary is also underway in the neighboring 1st Congressional District, where seven Democratic hopefuls are running to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman. That field includes Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, retired Navy Commander and former corporate government affairs executive Jason Knapp, and attorneys Salaam Bhatti and Mel Tull. Wittman, who is seeking a 10th full term, is unopposed for renomination.

In the 7th Congressional District, which straddles Northern and Central Virginia, freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Eugene Vindman faces no primary challengers in his bid for a second term. In November, he’ll face the winner of a three-way primary between Republicans Philip Harding, Doug Ollivant and Rick Smithers.

The Democratic primary in the 5th Congressional District also features a comeback attempt by a former member of Congress. Tom Perriello served one term from 2009 to 2011 in the Charlottesville-area district. If he wins the three-way primary, he would likely face Republican U.S. Rep. John McGuire in a district that Trump won with about 56% of the vote.

Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has endorsed Luria, Taylor and Perriello in their congressional primaries.

At the top of the ballot, Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is unopposed in his bid for a fourth term. Running to challenge him in November are Republicans Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa and David Williams. Warner has held the seat since 2009 and won his last reelection with 56% of the vote.

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Washington will “elect” the usual leftist suspects.

In Washington, all voting is by mail, and there is no real oversight by neutrals of the counting process.

Purely by coincidence, the Dims captured complete control of the state when that vote by mail was instituted, and have never lost it since.

Go figure.

Yeah, nothing of any real interest is happening in Washington except perhaps 2 items:

1. Who will replace Dan Newhouse (RINO) in CD-4? There are 3 main GOP candidates who will split the open primary vote sufficient that possibly a Democrat will make it to the November ballot (and then lose). The best Republican has to be perennial candidate Jerrod Sessler.

State Senator Matt Boehnke (RINO) is also in the race, but the favorite is probably Amanda McKinney who claims the “Golden Trump Endorsement”. Her other high-profile endorsements scream “squish!” but her alleged platform *sounds* conservative.

2. What percentage of the overall vote will “moderate” Democrat incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez get in CD-3?

Unlike her first 2 elections, she is no longer running against Joe Kent, but instead her opponent this year will be flaccid state Senator John Braun. Given all the other marginal seats the GOP will be losing in 3 months, and how few good pickup opportunities there are, this is an important seat to take. But Braun is not favored, and this district has moved noticeably leftward over the past few years (liberal invaders from Antifa-land across the river?).

Today’s primary will give some indication of how November might unfold in CD-3. And if Democrats are somehow shut out in CD-4, that would be nice but still hardly assures the election of a *conservative* in Washington’s most GOP-oriented district.

One continues to wonder why the GOP never makes any serious effort whatsoever in CD-8, which is only a nominally Rat-leaning district (D+1). But they never really try, and 2026 is no exception. Schrier (D) will win without breaking a sweat in November.

It still amazes me how deranged as a nation we’ve become that Democrats can even be conceived as viable candidates as b.s. insane they’ve become.

Right?

It seems like anything on the Dems platform ... but, especially the Commie and other LOONEY issues/beliefs they espouse - would be VERY low hanging fruit for Repubs to run NON-STOP ads on, leading up to these races.

Why aren’t we?

Maybe we are and I’m just missing it.

“ Their key to winning is apathy on our side.”

It is beyond apathy. It is disgust with what the congressional Republicans have not done for their constituents while they are in Washington. The Senate, especially, never giving Trump a recess appointment, not passing any legislation of importance since July 2025, working against Trump and us with the SAVE act, etc.

James failed twice for the senate and had to settle for a house seat. Wish him well but he has a coming-up-short history. Blacks running for statewide seats are a tough nut to crack.

Maine-2. Trump won the district but the democrat Golden kept winning. Now that he’s quitting the former governor LePage will succeed him. Too bad he’s too old to think long term.

Then there’s the die hard republicans ten to 20 percent. They need to actively tap into those republicans who don’t show up. Every one should be assigned 5 or ten of those ‘slackers’ and go to work on them. I’m talking coffee at Starbucks, inviting them to GOP events as if they were going to a church where god isn’t mentioned. I do believe it is doable. The county GOP offices have their names. With 17-20 competitive house seats up it wouldn’t have to be nationwide.

Here’s how voting worked in my MO precinct. We show our voter ID, and a government-issued photo ID. Worker looks at the picture and at me. Tell the workers which ballot we want, Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, or Independent, confirm our information, sign on an iPad, get our ballot, fill in the circles, put the ballot into a machine that confirms we voted.

Being a primitive Republican state, I assume we’ll know the results by this evening, unlike more progressive states where the results might not be known for weeks.

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