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Posted on 05/13/2026 12:06:14 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
According to an analysis by independent astronomer Bill Gray, developer of the Project Pluto software used to track near-Earth objects, the spent SpaceX rocket stage will crash into the Moon on 5 August 2026 at about 06:44 UTC (02:44 EDT).
Gray reports the impact should occur around Einstein crater, a heavily impacted area at the threshold between the lunar near side and far side.
"The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets. We know those with immense precision," Gray explains.
At the same time, solar radiation pressure, or the push exerted by sunlight, is constantly acting on the object in ever-changing ways.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencealert.com ...
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This image shows a pair of craters made in 2022 when the upper stage of China's Chang'e-5 T1 mission hit the moon. One of the craters is about 16 meters across and the other about 18 meters across. The China National Space Administration does not provide figures for the mass of their rockets, but it probably had a mass similar to 2025-010D, and we'll probably get a crater of roughly similar size. It will be coming in at an angle of 34 degrees from the vertical, straight enough down that I don't expect the crater to be very elongated.Courtesy Lunar Reconnaissance orbiterUpper stage impacting the moon on 2026 August 5 | Project Pluto | most recent update May 12 2026
During the Apollo program seismometers were left on the Moon, but those went out of service in 1977. An Indian probe on the surface does have a newer one.
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And then.....aliens.
“The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets. We know those with immense precision,” Gray explains.
At the same time, solar radiation pressure, or the push exerted by sunlight, is constantly acting on the object in ever-changing ways.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
makes perfect sense to me! /s...
“constantly acting on the object in ever-changing ways.”
Which is it?
Constant?
Or Variable?
I was just thinking about that. Thanks for posting.
This was exactly my first thought!
It’s constantly variable.
Where is Iron Eyes Cody when you need him.
Most of it is inertial, traveling in a slowly varying trajectory, the variance resulting from small forces at work, including wobbles from the lumpiness of planetary bodies (see the “Potsdam Gravity Potato” keyword), the solar wind, and of course the tidal transfer of momentum.
He’d be in close-up, shedding a tear, then enjoying some mostaccioli.
This is so funny and I don’t know why!!!!!
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