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Posted on 05/12/2026 9:00:52 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
U.S. gasoline inventories are on pace to drop to historical seasonal lows by late summer, further straining a tight fuel market upended by the war in Iran.
Stockpiles are expected to fall below 200 million barrels by the end of August, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a May 4 note. The projections for record seasonal low fuel inventories are the latest indication that the global energy supply crunch appears set to continue for months to come.
“The U.S. gasoline market is genuinely tight and tightening further into summer,” Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats and strategists Charlotte Firkins and Amy Gower wrote.
Total gasoline inventories stood at 222 million barrels as of late April — the lowest for that time of year since 2014, according to the Energy Information Administration.
In Morgan Stanley’s base case projection, in which current market trends “partially normalize,” inventories will fall to 198 million barrels by the end of August. That’s less than levels for the period at any time in modern data, according to the note. The decrease would push total gasoline stockpiles to the lowest at any time since October 2012, according to the EIA.
Inventory levels trending that low would widen the margin between gasoline futures and Brent crude futures — a price difference known as the gasoline crack spread — to $40 a barrel in July, according to the note.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. have been lower before. But seasonal lows in gasoline supplies during the summer — when demand typically picks up as Americans hit the road — could raise prices at a time when consumers are already grappling with higher fuel costs. On average, U.S. drivers paid $4.48 a gallon at the pump as of May 4, according to the American Automobile Association.
Falling U.S. stockpiles are likely the result of a “collapse” in gasoline imports into the East Coast as the global market scrambles to secure fuel, Morgan Stanley said.
“The traditional resupply mechanism from Europe and the Middle East has effectively stopped,” the analysts wrote. “Saudi, Malaysian and large ARA cargoes are absent.”
Meanwhile, high margins for diesel and jet fuel — supplies of which are running shorter as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — are incentivizing refiners to produce more of those fuels instead of gasoline. U.S. gasoline exports have also remained elevated as foreign buyers snap up barrels that might otherwise be delivered to domestic markets. And U.S. demand for gasoline remains “resilient,” according to the note.
In the most extreme case, in which supply constraints continue an additional one or two months, stockpiles could fall as low as 190 million barrels by the end of August, according to the note. That would send the margin for gasoline against Brent crude in July near $45 to $50 a barrel.
Still, a full reopening of the strait would bring stockpiles closer to normal ranges — and imports could recover regardless as it becomes more profitable to send gasoline from Europe to the East Coast.
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Stock up while you can.
They’re setting us up for gas prices to rise.
It benefitted his climate change agenda for sure...No Gas for you!!
We’re down two refineries this year. Plus problems at refineries in the Midwest. Time to dump the RFG and move fuel to where it is needed. Or reopen the mothballed refineries temporarily under Federal control/private management.
The EIA.gov last report of US gasoline exports is 05-01-2026 @ 856K BPD.
That number is not the highest value of barrels per day (BDP) for US exports.
What reasons did they give for closing refineries?
So even though the US is not dependent on Middle East oil and even though we export more gas than we import.....
Prices are still skyrocketing.
Because oil is a global commodity. (This should not be news to anyone.)
Those gas exports are reflective of the fact that overseas buyers are purchasing from America to make up for the lack of supply that would normally have come through the Strait of Hormuz.
Wish I could. it’s already hitting $4.59, up $.15 from yesterday. I remember when Obama said we’d pay $5/gallon for gas. We’re almost there. :(
Where I live, there is absolutely no effect on traffic. The roads are still completely jammed.
multiplenicks (implying that it's not multiple people with critical opinions, but one person operating sockpuppet accounts);
randspam (Rand Paul is not mentioned once);
tds (How is this Trump Derangement Syndrome?);
tdstrolls (Again, how is this article trolling anyone?);
It's pathetic, is what it is.
Please please… no more winning. 5 bucks a gallon is enough. And the damnedable thing about it. Trump is going to hand over power to the democrats who want European gasoline prices to last forever.
Must be some crazy stuff in those Epstein files.
Plus more EVs and hybrid vehicles (which use less gas)on the road nowadays. We use less gas today than in the past. The problem is diesel fuel prices (whatever happened to bio-diesel?)
Another refinery up in smoke in Tulsa,
Now incorporate the millions of gallons produced since the first shipment of crude from Venezuela to Houston Chevron- for gasoline processing and shipment to all other distributors, including by pipeline.
Show the Venezuelan crude oil shipments since Maduro taken and instant conversion of off shipments to China,Cuba etc.== sent to the USA in Houston. The number of tankers is quite large and quite constant.
This graphic is, simply wrong. Largely and Bigly. Stock up for summer— pre supposed and deliberate jacking of prices on false supply information. Kind of things the generic oil companies do all the time only more so. Week 20 on you “chart” has not begun. That would be Week of 18 May, 2026 from January 1 2026. A lot is happening right now, and before then. Including seizure and shipping of Iran oil by the US. Paid to the US. Saudis are overjoyed to help with removal of IRGC. NO US troops needed for any in country lifting.
Oh, for bleeps sake.
I wish people would do their own research.
The red line is not at Week 20. Look again.
The graphic is about gasoline stocks. So is the article.
Per the US Energy Information Administration's Stocks of Crude Oil by PAD District, and Stocks of Petroleum Products,1 U.S. Totals table that is current as of 5/01/2026:
Total Motor Gasoline as of 5/1/2026: 219.8 million barrels
Total Motor Gasoline as of the prior week: 222.3 million barrels
Total Motor Gasoline as of the prior week: 225.7 million barrels
Total Motor Gasoline as of two years ago: 228 million barrels
How, exactly, is it "largely and bigly wrong"?
5.20 for gasoline and 6.50 for diesel in Eastern Oregon.
Definitely putting a dent in my vacation plans. Just gonna boon dock close by and give up my usual multi thousand mile summer road trip in the rv.
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