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Posted on 03/09/2026 7:23:20 AM PDT by chrisinoc
New Article: Building an OSINT Pipeline to Cut Through the Iranian Conflict Noise.
SPOILER ALERT: We're winning.
I just published a long-form analysis on the Iran conflict and the strategic dynamics around it. Sorry for the Substack-only publication; the article itself was far too long and complex in formatting to publish with π tooling. (Feedback to the π team - if you can just make full Markdown capability, I would be thrilled.)
Before anything else: I'm only a civilian data analyst, not a military officer or intelligence professional. This piece is the result of two weeks of intensive work where I did something unusual.... I built and experimented with an AI-assisted OSINT synthesis pipeline using military doctrine, think tank research, and public reporting.
Part of the goal was to produce something useful for readers.
But honestly, the bigger goal was education for myself, forcing a structured process to sort signal from noise in an information environment that's chaotic right now.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
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https://datarepublican.substack.com/p/data-analysis-of-the-state-of-the
Data analysis is good and by all data metrics we are “winning.” But its fair to ask if we are achieving our long-term objectives. Once we are done bombing Iran back into the Stone Age, will a government remain in place whose objective is to foster terrorism against the US, Israel and the West? And if the answer to that question is yes, how long will it take that government to start funding proxies around the world and producing missiles, drones and nuclear material again?
Threepost now.
The rest of the DataRepublican keyword, sorted:
Many of us here are old enough to remember how unpopular the Shah was in the late 70’s. Carter abandoned him and got blamed for losing Iran. We first have to acknowledge how far the Shah overstepped his bounds when it came to ruling the country. The mullahs on the other hand were much worse-think of Ukraine supporting the ‘liberating’ Nazis over Stalin. In the be careful-what-you-wish-for world I think the populace would do it again. The next regime will be just as difficult. While the Shah sent university students here to help modernize Iran too many of the students turned on him. There are enough crazies in the country whoever rules the country will have to rule with an iron hand. It will require an element of ruthlessness that will remind the population of the Shah.
The objectives are
Prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
Cripple Iran’s ability to project power.
Regime change.
If we achieve the first two, the war is a success.
Obliterating the regime (in particular the IRGC, which is analogous to the Waffen SS) will take care of all three. End of next week at the latest?
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unpopular during the peak of left-wing agitprop & leftwing media indoctrination. The left is always seeking a country (preferably wealthy) to devour. Any pushback is automatically labelled repression.
” But its fair to ask if we are achieving our long-term objectives”
I’m at an elevated level of skepticism over this aspect; not the wisdom nor necessity for this war. I think Israel’s attack on the oil facilties is quite possibly a stretegic blunder. And, my understanding is that Trump is pissed off at it, bigly.
I think it turns the assault into something more of an assault against the Iranian people. Yes, no matter what, only a few will get their hands on oil money, but a reasonable replacement/successor government could maybe throw a few shekels at the water & power infrastructures.
Now we are talking about equipping the Kurds, 1950’s CIA style. And this threatens to evolve into some form of civil war, because ordinary Iranians could well not cotton to this idea. Certainly it will piss of Turkey, big time.
The Kurds are long, long overdue for their own country, but I don’t think this method will go over with anyone BUT the Kurds. And the Iranians could well take the effort as an imposition of whatever new government the US decides upon.
I continue to think that the IRGC which is a giant mafia as far as I’m concerned will very possibly morph into 2-6 sub-mafias, like the New York families and deliberately create whatever chaos they can. After we are done with the kinetics over there, there will be nothing BUT oil, and every malevolent force is going to work to get their hands on it. With the oil attacks, somebody is going to have to insert themselves in the form of engineering and construction over there for 6 months to 2 years to rebuild what has been wrecked. That period of time is perfectly adequate for those folks who will immutably find a way to eff things up.
The thing that most concerns me is that NOBODY I have heard among the many analysts and pundits has proferred the multi-mafia idea. I am not smart enough to have thought of this all by myself.
You posted:
“There are enough crazies in the country; whoever rules the country will have to rule with an iron hand. It will require an element of ruthlessness that will remind the population of the Shah.”
Yep. I’m not expecting petunias and rainbows to come of this. I’m not sure it will help that much at all. But, I’m not sure it could have been avoided either.
That is a video from 2024, when Iran fired a salvo of about 200 missiles in retaliation for Israel killing the leaders of both Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran no longer has the capacity to launch large salvos.
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