Posted on 03/05/2026 5:24:21 AM PST by Rummyfan
The men in Zhongnanhai do not rattle easily. Decades of patient statecraft, a foreign policy built on studied ambiguity, and an economy engineered to absorb external shocks have granted Beijing’s leadership a remarkable tolerance for turbulence. Operation Epic Fury, the American-Israeli air campaign now dismantling Iran’s military architecture, has produced something unusual in the corridors of Chinese power: visible confusion.
Xi Jinping is scrambling. The word is not used lightly. For a leader who has built his image on strategic composure and long-horizon thinking, the current moment is acutely dangerous. Not because China faces a direct military threat, but because every available response to the crisis in the Persian Gulf leads Beijing into a trap of its own contradictions.
First, the Iranian counterweight is gone. In 2021, Xi told senior Party officials that “the East is rising and the West is declining,” that America was “the biggest source of chaos in the present-day world,” and that China was entering a period of strategic opportunity. Iran was central to that thesis. Beijing needed a defiant Tehran to keep Washington pinned down in the Gulf, to sustain a sanctions-proof energy corridor, and above all, to stand as living evidence that American power had hard limits. The entire architecture of CCP’s dogma of inevitability, which rested on Iran’s ability to endure, and Epic Fury removed the foundation in a single afternoon.
(Excerpt) Read more at zinebriboua.com ...
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Read this earlier and several other Chinese dissident articles. Xi has his hands full. His image is taking a beating and the Red party can’t have that.
The long game of the last 10 years has just blown up in his face.
Xi is 72. Not too old, really. But I wonder what will happen to China after he is gone. He seems to be completely central to China’s current vision. China has political, economic and demographic challenges. If they enter a period of weakened central control, it might get very bad for them.
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The Iranian oil isn’t flowing out to China.
The Russian oil flow is being partially blocked.
FDR would find Xi’s shoes far more comfortable than Hoover’s.
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing.
China is also watching the rare earth minerals choke point evaporate as well. That is missed by many as to how impactful that is.
I think China was going for more an economic and resource power than militarily. They know they can’t really achieve parity militarily and the cost to even try is prohibitive, heck it hurts us to keep being so built up.
Now the key elements to both the economics and resource influences are collapsing, and Xi’s internal propaganda has the lie put to it publicly. Such a loss of confidence and real impact may push the party to take some actions against him.
72 isn’t old. But Xi has a habit of removing anyone that he thinks might threaten his power. Which means there aren’t any heirs apparent waiting in the wings when he does die. If he dies without a clear successor the power struggle could be long, brutal and destabilizing to the whole country.
CC
The Chinese are inveterate gamblers.
The bet was that they could keep filling their gas tanks.
Kinda dumb.
Trump has played a similar game Reagan did with the Soviets in going after oil. By decontrolling oil prices and opening production, prices collapsed and so did Soviet cash flow. Trump has simply cut off Venezuela and Iran.
The hazard is that it’s the same thing we did to Japan before WWII. Oil is economic life and death. In attacking Iran we have set a modern precedent for China to take our chip lifeline in Taiwan. So we are in troubled waters too. Between tariffs and American wholesalers getting cold feet and looking for alternative suppliers to Chia, they have a glut in manufacturing capacity.
Their ‘ace in the hole’ is that it’s going to take the better part of a decade to crank up American manufacturing and once we do we’ll find that our entitled employee base is irredeemably badly educated. Whether we can fix enough of that remains to be demonstrated. Trump is a gambler too.
Here is a big “What If”. What if Trump offered to sell oil to China to make up for what they lost in Venezuela and Iran? If China became dependent on Oil from the U.S., how would that change the dynamics of Global power? Think about it.
Author is very smart.
I love that idea…price will be $100/barrel
I would bet that America will decide it's easier to push for automation and AI rather than to try to reform education and create a generation of skilled workers. Our human capital is poor stuff in a variety of ways. Human labor contributions will be minimized and machines will be a preferred path forward.
ITGRC, Trump has offered to ensure China receives the oil it needs. The unstated hitch being that China will no longer be able to avoid paying the prevailing market price.
Russia and China have been weaponizing Iran for decades and their weapons have proved to be impotent. We only lost 3 F-15’s to friendly F-18’s.
FDR was more rotten than XI. Frig that POS!!
I doubt seriously that AI will replace the plant electrician, maintenance mechanic, or millwright. No way. The military has been the primary source of those skill sets.
If something isn't done about the schools in this nation, we.re going to end up with maybe three generations of sluggo's walking about sucking their thumbs..
The scary part is our nation will need educated solders as well as workers. With today's liberal teachers, I Think we're in big trouble..
“it’s going to take the better part of a decade to crank up American manufacturing and once we do we’ll find that our entitled employee base is irredeemably badly educated.”
*************
Some portion of that base, perhaps a large one, will be replaced by AI and automation. Those lacking education, skills and motivation will quickly lose their sense of entitlement.
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