Posted on 12/08/2025 3:42:42 PM PST by jerod
In recent days Russia’s medium ice-class LNG carrier Buran has failed repeatedly to reach the Arctic LNG 2 terminal in Ob Bay as thick, early-season ice has shut down regular navigation. The events underscore mounting winter constraints on the Northern Sea Route and the project’s acute shortage of powerful Arc7 carriers.
The Arc4-class Buran attempted four times since December 2 to push south into Ob Bay, alternately following closely behind two nuclear icebreakers, 50 Let Pobedy and Arktika, working to open a path through the ice. Two nearby Arc7 LNG carriers in service of neighboring Yamal LNG project were also part of the convoy.
Despite the support Buran never made it far enough south to reach the Arctic LNG 2 site. Sea ice in Ob Bay has reached 50 cm or more in thickness amid temperatures plunging below –20°C, shutting down approaches earlier and more forcefully than in recent years.
The difficulty is particularly consequential for Arctic LNG 2, which sits further south in Ob Bay than its sister project Yamal LNG – making its access corridor more vulnerable to fast, early ice formation. The Buran is one of four Arc4-class LNG carriers available to Novatek. Although the company may have hoped these vessels could continue sailing into December, their medium ice-class is proving insufficient for the heavy first-year ice now building in the region.
Last month Buran also struggled to pass through the East Siberian Sea, taking a week to find a path through the ice.
After nearly a week of back-and-forth maneuvering at the mouth of Ob Bay, the Buran has seemingly abandoned its efforts and retreated back into the Kara Sea. Its withdrawal sharply illustrates the limitations of both Russia’s icebreaker support and the vessel lineup allocated to the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project.
Polar View Sentinel 1 images showing Buran’s path through the sea ice in the mouth of Ob Bay on December 7. (Source: Sentinel 1)
Novatek has only one Arc7-class LNG carrier, Christophe de Margerie, available for Arctic LNG 2 this season. But the ship is currently far away, near Kamchatka, after being dispatched on a winter eastbound voyage through the Northern Sea Route toward Asia. The move, seen as risky from a logistical standpoint, leaves the project without its most capable vessel for the moment.
For now Russia continues operating a nuclear icebreaker, Sibir, along the eastern section of the Northern Sea Route, likely to facilitate Christophe de Margerie’s return via the route back to pick up another cargo at Arctic LNG 2. Though Novatek may also elect to not risk its sole Arc7 vessel; Christophe de Margerie previously sustained damage along the NSR during a winter transit requiring a months-long stint at a Chinese shipyard.
The Buran’s failed attempt underscores the steep operational hurdles facing Arctic LNG 2 as it tries to sustain even minimal winter exports. Without enough Arc7 carriers, and with Arc4 vessels unable to overcome the advancing ice, the project’s ability to maintain output in the coming months appears increasingly constrained.
A second Arc7 LNG carrier Alexey Kosygin could possibly become available in the coming weeks. The vessel continues to undergo sea trials near Russia’s Zvezda shipyard in the Far East. After a year of repeated trials sources say the LNG carrier could be getting close to commissioning.
That global warming is going to kill us all. I’m in Virginia and have several inches of pre-christmas snow.
Ice? In the Arctic? Ice in the Arctic? Who knew?
I live in the Canadian Maritimes... And we've had at least 4 snowfalls in the 'past' week or two. It's going to be long freaking winter.
I thought the arctic was melting.
Gorebal Warning is going to kill us all....
The reality is that we’re heading into a Cooling period.
But the solution hasn’t changed: more deindustrialization, less energy use, more taxes, more communism.
“That global warming is going to kill us all. “
Is that you Al?
BiXiden?
James Hansen?
Gavin A. Schmidt?
et. al. ?
It is China that is keeping the controversial project running. And the backing from Beijing is likely to continue. Project owner Novatek is now granting Chinese buyers a major discount on LNG from the project.
According to Reuters, Chinese companies can now buy gas from the Arctic LNG 2 with a 30-40 percent discount.
The four tankers, all of them on international sanction lists, are operating as ‘shadow vessels’ for Novatek. In April 2025, they all changed names. The North Air, North Mountain, North Sky and North Way became Buran, Voskhod, Iris and Zarya respectively. They also changed their flag state from Panama to Russia.
It’s so unfair!
The one year Farmers Almanac is looking right and they go out of business.
This can’t be true. The Arctic is supposed to be ice-free now. ManBearPig told us so!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novatek
Controversies
In September 2021, CFO Mark Gyetvay was arrested in the United States.[36] He allegedly hid $93 million worth of assets in offshore accounts. If convicted, he could face a decades-long prison sentence. He has since been released on a $80M bond.[37] On March 28, 2023, a jury found Gyetvay guilty of hiding his foreign assets, defrauding the IRS, and failing to file tax returns between 2005 and 2015. He faces up to five years for each of the first two counts and an additional year for each return not filed. The verdict will be delivered on September 21.[38] Gyetvay was sentenced to 86 months incarceration on that date.[39]
In April 2022, former Deputy Chairman on the Board of Directors, Sergey Protosenya, reportedly stunned his wife and daughter with an axe and then stabbed them to death before hanging himself, at a luxury villa in Lloret de Mar, Spain. He had a fortune of over $400 million. Two other similar reports of gas company executives killing their wives and children emerged around the same time in Moscow. Investigators have not found evidence of third parties despite the case not looking like a typical murder-suicide.[40][41] Novatek issued a statement casting doubt on a murder-suicide theory.[42]
I’m still trying to figure out how raising taxes on poor and middleclass people reduces global warming... It’s a head scratcher.
Maybe the Davos-London folks will drop the global warming propaganda, now that cold weather is helping them against Russia.
So... Working with this Novatek appears to be a very dangerous job. It’s typically Roughnecks who die while working for these energy companies... Not the white collar executives.
Well, it’s actually global climate change, you see...
Seems like a failure in planning more than any dramatic shift in ice patterns, as in general there is less ice in the arctic this autumn than in past years, in other words, the winter pack is building slowly, but perhaps more so on our side of the hemisphere ( very little ice observed yet in Hudson Bay for example ) ... a very strong storm is forming west of Ireland at present and heading for the arctic, so I expect a peak of media reports of unusual warmth in Svalbard and Franz Josef Land soon. The usual variations, means nothing to the actual state of climate change, if any.
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