| --> YouTube-Generated Transcript <-- |
| 0:00 | · | for the first time since June. |
| 0:02 | · | So we're seeing a little bit of |
| 0:03 | · | a recovery there in the crypto |
| 0:05 | · | space to help set up the |
| 0:06 | · | trading day. We welcome in |
| 0:07 | · | Kevin Hincks alive from the |
| 0:09 | · | Cboe this morning for our pre |
| 0:11 | · | Bell playbook. Good morning to |
| 0:13 | · | you Kevin. All right so we've |
| 0:14 | · | got the futures coming off the |
| 0:15 | · | lows this morning. Perhaps all |
| 0:17 | · | thanks to some of the data we |
| 0:19 | · | got this morning. We're in a |
| 0:21 | · | bit of a data fog but we are |
| 0:23 | · | getting a little bit more |
| 0:24 | · | clarity. What are you seeing |
| 0:24 | · | out there this morning. Good |
| 0:26 | · | morning. Good morning Sam. Yeah. |
| 0:28 | · | After a bit of an ugly day |
| 0:30 | · | yesterday, a better than |
| 0:32 | · | expected ADP private payroll |
| 0:34 | · | report has the has the futures |
| 0:37 | · | like you mentioned off their |
| 0:39 | · | lows and actually turning |
| 0:40 | · | positive. Now as we get to the |
| 0:42 | · | 9:00 hour. Now what did we get. |
| 0:44 | · | We got the ADP private payroll |
| 0:46 | · | report that came in 42,000 jobs. |
| 0:49 | · | That's better than the 25,000 |
| 0:52 | · | expected. Much better than |
| 0:54 | · | -32,000. Remember we had two |
| 0:57 | · | negative months in a row for |
| 0:58 | · | jobs. So a nice jump here to |
| 1:01 | · | 42,000. An interesting of that |
| 1:03 | · | 42,000 74,000 of it was |
| 1:07 | · | companies 500 employees and |
| 1:09 | · | higher. So the larger companies |
| 1:11 | · | were doing a lot of hiring. |
| 1:12 | · | Here's how it broke down. |
| 1:15 | · | Companies with 1 to 19 |
| 1:18 | · | employees down 15,000, 20 to 49 |
| 1:21 | · | employees up 5050 to 249. Down |
| 1:28 | · | 25,250 to 499. Up 5000. And |
| 1:30 | · | then again over 574,000 jobs. |
| 1:34 | · | Now break it down by by sector. |
| 1:37 | · | Trade and transportation. |
| 1:38 | · | Utilities up 47,000 jobs. |
| 1:42 | · | Education and health services |
| 1:44 | · | up 25,000 jobs. Financial |
| 1:46 | · | activities up 11,000. Those are |
| 1:49 | · | the main positives. Leisure and |
| 1:51 | · | hospitality, one that we watch |
| 1:52 | · | for the services sector down |
| 1:55 | · | 5000 jobs. Professional and |
| 1:57 | · | business services down 15,000 |
| 1:59 | · | and information services down |
| 2:03 | · | 17,000. Wages were pretty much |
| 2:05 | · | flat from month to month as job |
| 2:07 | · | movers actually got raises |
| 2:11 | · | compared to jobs. Stairs, Sam. |
| 2:13 | · | But all things considered, a |
| 2:15 | · | market that may have been |
| 2:17 | · | bracing for a weak number, not |
| 2:18 | · | so much as we get a nice bump |
| 2:20 | · | to 42,000 private payrolls. I |
| 2:23 | · | suppose it's an encouraging |
| 2:25 | · | number, and particularly when |
| 2:26 | · | you look at some of the |
| 2:27 | · | headlines that we've been |
| 2:28 | · | tracking with regards to IBM |
| 2:30 | · | becoming the latest to slash |
| 2:31 | · | some jobs as well. But I |
| 2:32 | · | suppose we've got to give some |
| 2:34 | · | credence to these private |
| 2:36 | · | reports, given that we don't |
| 2:36 | · | have much else to work with. So |
| 2:38 | · | certainly as far as that number |
| 2:40 | · | is concerned. Looking pretty |
| 2:41 | · | positive this morning. We throw |
| 2:42 | · | it ahead of course to services |
| 2:44 | · | PMI out later in the hour. But |
| 2:45 | · | just on another data printer |
| 2:48 | · | mortgage applications. What are |
| 2:49 | · | you seeing there as far as the |
| 2:51 | · | weekly survey. So mortgage |
| 2:52 | · | applications slipped slightly |
| 2:54 | · | from last week. But you |
| 2:55 | · | remember last week was a big |
| 2:58 | · | jump of 7.1% on the composite |
| 3:00 | · | number today, down 1.9%, down |
| 3:05 | · | 0.6% in terms of purchases and |
| 3:07 | · | refinances, down 2.8%. But if |
| 3:10 | · | you look at the two weeks, |
| 3:13 | · | mortgage applications have done |
| 3:15 | · | extremely well in in the |
| 3:16 | · | aggregate for the last two |
| 3:18 | · | weeks. So a slight slip though |
| 3:21 | · | this week in mortgage |
| 3:22 | · | applications. But we are 35 |
| 3:25 | · | days from a fed meeting, Sam, |
| 3:26 | · | as you know, and the |
| 3:28 | · | percentages for fed rate cut |
| 3:30 | · | that had dropped to 60% are |
| 3:33 | · | starting to creep back up. As I |
| 3:34 | · | look this morning, 72% chance |
| 3:37 | · | of a 25 basis point rate cut. |
| 3:41 | · | So overall, the mortgage, |
| 3:43 | · | mortgage applications, business, |
| 3:44 | · | housing in general they need |
| 3:45 | · | and want lower rates, as you |
| 3:48 | · | know Sam. Yeah, absolutely. And |
| 3:50 | · | obviously we continue to pass |
| 3:52 | · | over a number of these report |
| 3:54 | · | cards as well. The second |
| 3:55 | · | biggest week as far as earnings |
| 3:56 | · | are concerned. So keeping us |
| 3:57 | · | pretty busy. I'm just looking |
| 3:59 | · | across some of the names that |
| 4:00 | · | really stand out this morning. |
| 4:01 | · | Mickey D's talking about a |
| 4:03 | · | challenging environment. You've |
| 4:04 | · | also had Carver, as far as you |
| 4:07 | · | know, some of the other fast |
| 4:08 | · | food and casual dining, you |
| 4:10 | · | know, raising some alarm bells |
| 4:12 | · | there, particularly about the |
| 4:13 | · | younger demographic. And then |
| 4:15 | · | you have on the other side of |
| 4:17 | · | things with technology, AMD |
| 4:17 | · | with a double beat. It seems |
| 4:19 | · | like the in-line margins is the |
| 4:21 | · | worry here, but I suppose it |
| 4:23 | · | doesn't help to report on a day |
| 4:24 | · | where there had been so much |
| 4:27 | · | concern about AI valuations and |
| 4:28 | · | that conversation. So what are |
| 4:29 | · | you seeing? What stands out to |
| 4:32 | · | you about some of these |
| 4:33 | · | earnings? Kevin, what's really |
| 4:35 | · | impressive is McDonald's. |
| 4:35 | · | McDonald's is currently up |
| 4:37 | · | about 8 or 9 between 8 and $9 |
| 4:40 | · | premarket. That's on an |
| 4:42 | · | earnings per share miss this |
| 4:43 | · | morning. But if you look at the |
| 4:46 | · | numbers sales were better. |
| 4:48 | · | Revenue was better. And they're |
| 4:50 | · | guiding strong. So that stock |
| 4:51 | · | that had sold off in the last |
| 4:53 | · | couple of weeks during the |
| 4:55 | · | month of November, jumping back |
| 4:57 | · | up about 8 or $9 premarket. |
| 4:59 | · | Yeah. Remember we talked about |
| 5:02 | · | this a lot yesterday on the |
| 5:03 | · | Schwab network. You know when |
| 5:06 | · | you look at AMD they have |
| 5:08 | · | rallied so much. Just like so |
| 5:10 | · | many of these tech giants. You |
| 5:12 | · | put up good numbers and you |
| 5:14 | · | still can't hold the levels |
| 5:15 | · | that we traded up to. So not |
| 5:18 | · | surprising. I've got AMD down |
| 5:22 | · | about oh let's call it 5 or $6 |
| 5:24 | · | somewhere between their pre |
| 5:25 | · | market. But that's a flesh |
| 5:27 | · | wound compared to how much the |
| 5:29 | · | stock has rallied over the last |
| 5:30 | · | three and six months. I'll give |
| 5:32 | · | you the numbers Sam. The last |
| 5:34 | · | six months on AMD up 153%. So a |
| 5:37 | · | couple dollars on the downside. |
| 5:39 | · | That's a flesh wound Sam a |
| 5:41 | · | flesh wound. Yes certainly. I |
| 5:43 | · | mean many analysts are sort of |
| 5:44 | · | suggesting that AMD very much |
| 5:46 | · | is a 20 over 26 story, |
| 5:48 | · | particularly how it positions |
| 5:49 | · | itself to compete with the |
| 5:50 | · | likes of Nvidia. It wasn't a |
| 5:52 | · | bad |
