Posted on 07/14/2025 9:32:40 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111
After years of embarrassing failures, including fires and a sinking dry-dock, Russia might scrap its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov. According to the Russian newspaper Izvestia, the decision to end the carrier’s long-stalled overhaul seems certain. A retired Russian admiral even stated that classic aircraft carriers are “a thing of the past,” vulnerable to modern missiles.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalsecurityjournal.org ...
Someone explain to me how Russia is a threat to expand beyond Ukraine?
They haven’t conquered Ukraine yet. They only are a global threat with nuclear weapons, so the ability to ruinate the land which makes conquest irrelevant. You even have to question if their nuclear delivery systems are as capable as they once were, or were they ever capable?
Our stuff works, does the Russian?
Nothing says power like a ship that can operate for months or even years at sea with 10,000+ well trained crew ready to laydown hell on any coastline in the world.
Aircraft carriers will ‘never’ go out of style.
It’s been scrap for decades. When was the last time they did a launch or landing with it? When was the last time the boat was away from land on deep water?
Western Canada has more oil than anything else. It’s also renewable. We’re not going to run out.
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Canada, essentially the Albert oil sands, produces 5.88 million barrels/day. A 4% rise. Canada’s oil consumption is 2.33 million bpd. Exportable 3.5 mbpd.
US consumption is 19 million bpd. China is #2 at 16.4 million bpd. #3 is India at 5.6 mbpd. Make no mistake here, consumption is not trailing production.
As for renewable . . . don’t know what that means. Abiotic theories of oil have been around forever. It does not matter how oil is formed. It only matters where to find it.
One does not run out of oil. One runs short.
Are they also going to scrap the fleet of tugboats used to drag this thing around from port to port?
When do you think America will run out of American/Canadian/ world oil reserves?
We are behind on drone manufacturing.
When do you think America will run out of American/Canadian/ world oil reserves?
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Hmm, I just typed that one does not run out of oil.
One runs short, via consumption growth outstripping production, which may decline. Consumption decline is a rare thing if population rises.
Look, I have provided the link to BP’s Bible of oil, the World Statistical Review, often. It is at energyinst.org and the spreadsheet is linked inside their .pdf (the line under the QRcode within). Not as easy as it used to be to get.
Well, hell, maybe it is. I’ll just provide it:
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
On that page on the right is a big orange box. That’s not what you want. A few lines down and to the left is another clickable orange link that says Download the Data. That is the .xlsx spreadsheet in excel format.
Tab upon Tab of various energy measures, country by country. The Bible of oil.
Here’s another link.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=M
That’s US oil production historical. Have a look at 2008.
Interest rates smashed to zero right then. Everyone knew there was oil in shale that was frackable, but unless interest rates on the loans for that process were zero, it could not be done.
So interest rates slammed down and stayed down until very recently. Now then. Think about the question you asked, if you were asking in 2007. BTW, from the spreadsheet US oil consumption in 2007 was about 20 million bpd. So there, producing about 5 mbpd and burning 20 mbpd. Differential from tankers.
US consumption fell during the GFC and then again slightly during covid. 19ish mbpd now.
When you come up with a guess post it.
“Aircraft carriers will ‘never’ go out of style.”
indeed ... and i think that the number of modern, atomic powered, deep water aircraft carrier fleets is a good way to rank world powers: the greater the number, the higher the ranking ...
That’s reasonable.
You did not ask the right question. You asked when do you think we’ll run out of reserves local or global. Answer is never, until the earth is vaporized by supernova.
What you meant to ask was “when do you think society will be horribly smashed by oil scarcity, local or global.”
Lots of variables on that. Maybe the most powerful is never addressed — the inevitable African oil consumption explosion.
How about . . . when will we see lines at gas stations as we did in the 1970s. That one . . . within 20 yrs.
LOL, no I was trying to get to this distant future you constantly post about where we are all empty of oil and only Russia still has it.
You post so much nonsense about Russia I was hoping you would start pinning down that timeline for us.
Personally I don’t think of 20 years for gasoline lines reappearing as distant future.
Lemme offer up a graph. The shape of a fracked shale well’s production: Hmmm no graph, here is the AI text:
Key characteristics of a typical single shale well oil production graph include:
Initial Peak: Production starts at a high rate shortly after the well is brought online.
Rapid Decline Phase: In the first 1 to 2 years, production declines steeply, often by more than 60–70% within the first year.
Stabilization Phase: After the initial sharp drop, the decline rate slows, and production stabilizes at a lower level, continuing for several years at a relatively flatter decline rate.
This pattern is consistent across various shale basins despite differences in geological conditions.
Russia has the Bazhenov shale. They have not even bothered fracking there yet.
So yes, theirs runs out (short) last.
When do we all run out and only Russia has oil left?
100 years, 200? 400?
You mean when do we have gasoline lines and Russia does not?
That’s reasonably within 20 yrs. Russian oil consumption is 3.6 mbpd. Production 10ish mbpd.
Loss of some production is far less risk to them.
I keep trying to get you to explain this with some sort of guessed time “”Make no mistake here. Oil is everything, and theirs will run out last.””
Russia and Saudi Arabia? Until 2100.
It won't matter because at that point, we'll have nuclear power everywhere. And yes, we will use electric vehicles.
Our EVs suck right now. But we will be making better batteries soon.
It pains me to say it, but I suspect hypersonic missiles will make them go out of style. Maybe some sort of laser defense will come to the rescue(?)
The concept is that “running out” has more or less no meaning. You can relate it to a regional differential but it works like this.
Oil is not a reservoir. It’s pores in rock. There are no oceans of oil in some spot. There are pores. You drill a hole into the porous area and the enormous pressure differential forces the contents of the pores, pressed on by miles of rock above, up the bore and . . . gusher.
A field of oil (rock) that goes empty means the pores, of perhaps the size of a Coke can, that are outside the range of permeability for that bore will not flow. You will never spend money to drill another bore in the hopes of hitting that Coke can shaped/sized pore. So it gets left behind. Forever.
And that means . . . you did not run out. You can’t run out. There will always be those stray pores all over the planet, left behind forever. That’s why these questions of when do we run out cannot mean anything. They can on a relative basis. But not absolute.
All that can mean anything is production flow falls under consumption. By more and more. And you import. The 1970s were a surprise to Carter, who was told by Texas that when the Arabs embargoed, Texas could make up for it.
Texas did not because it could not. So we had lines at the gas stations.
Understand the numbers. Memorize them. The world becomes more clear if you know how much oil China and India MUST have per day.
BC, AB, SK are loaded. Need political nonsense out of tbe way. More than enough. Many wells can fill back up in 30 years. Renewable as lumber.
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