Ceasefire message [Detailed evaluation from an Israeli perspective

I received the text below via my father (a retired professor). I came from a cousin of one of his colleagues, an Israeli. I found it extremely detailed, thoughtful and informative, and thus worth sharing whether I agreed with bits of it or not.

I was actually thinking about writing a mail concerning the current hostage release and Trump's controversial statement. But my friend Abraham beat me to it. Despite its length, as usual it is very readable and I recommend it. There is one thing I want to add that Abraham only touched upon tangentially. The question of re-settling the Gazans in other countries. The feeling in Israel is comparable to you having a terrible neighbor in your building or neighborhood. One that is crazy and violent and that you feel threatened by. You'd be very happy to get rid of that neighbor. You'd love to find a way for him to leave. The vast majority of Israelis are against ethnic cleansing or forcible deportation, or anything that hints at it. Our soldiers would never load Gazans onto trucks at gunpoint. We were the victims of expulsions and deportations throughout our history and we haven't forgotten that. But if countries could be found that are willing to accept Gazans, and if they left Gaza to find a better life somewhere else on their own free will, then we would not have a problem with that. We think that is what Trump was suggesting in his statement. But of course, he wasn't clear on details. And in any event, the chances of finding countries willing to accept Gazan refugees are about zero. So the whole thing is a mute point.

It has not been that long since my last email, but enough has happened for me to sit down and write again. The most important change in our lives is that there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Looking at the blank page, this is going to be a challenging email to write. The events exist on three different planes: Reality, Perception, and Emotions. All interrelated but all different. The roller coaster of emotions and events that I described in the last email have only become more intense, with steeper hills and sharper curves. I will try to convey the various feelings and facts as I describe that roller coaster of what has happened to us. Buckle up.

On January 15th, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire that is supposed to lead to an end to the war.

I asked some people how they felt. One person told me: “I am in favor, and sad. And frustrated and angry”. Another said: “This is insane, but I am for it”.

David Barnea, the head of the Mossad and one of the chief negotiators said: “Everyone is saying that this is a bad deal, but this was the only deal. Which by definition makes it a good deal”.

When the ceasefire was announced, the country was caught up in various emotions summed up by the quotes above. Almost everyone thought it was a bad deal. However, the vast majority of Israelis, 73%, were in favor of the ceasefire. We were for it, and hated it. Very mixed emotions.

After we were attacked on October 7th, we went to war with two goals – remove Hamas from power and return the hostages. At first, those goals seemed mutually exclusive, but by the time of the first ceasefire, the two goals were meshing. We were beating them so badly they agreed to a ceasefire with a release of hostages just to catch their breaths. However, subsequent to that first ceasefire, the war aims began to diverge again. Regardless of our military victories, we could not rescue the hostages en masse. They were dispersed throughout Gaza, in tunnels and in homes. The only way to return the hostages was to make a deal with Hamas, which by definition, meant that Hamas was still in power. The two war goals became impossible to reconcile.

When the ceasefire was announced, there was a lot of anger in Israel, and much of it was directed towards Netanyahu.

On the right, there was anger and resentment that Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire that left Hamas in power, failing in one of the two main goals of the war. The feeling was that Netanyahu had sold out the country, caving into the new Trump administration.

On the left, there was anger and resentment that Netanyahu agreed to basically the same deal that was on the table in May and then again in August. The previous two times, Netanyahu had made a big deal over the need to stay on the border road between Gaza and Egypt, the Philadelphia Corridor. The entire security leadership, including the head of the army, the Defense Minister, the head of the Shin But and the head of the Mossad, had all said we do not need to hold the border road for our security. Netanyahu held a televised address and told us they were all wrong, and it was imperative that we stay. He was willing to risk the lives of soldiers and hostages to hold on to the Philadelphia corridor. For most of Israel, his protestations were seen not as caring about our security, but trying to preserve his government, given that the extreme right had said they would bolt the coalition if there was a ceasefire.

Now, in January, when Trump’s Middle East Advisor, Steven Witkoff, told him to make the agreement, he agreed to leave the border road. The left was irate. What had changed regarding our security, they asked? Nothing. How many people died, soldiers and hostages, because he wanted to placate his right-wing partners to stay in power, and then caved in anyway when Trump’s advisor told him to take the deal.

We were all angry for our own reasons, and frustrated. We had fought a long hard war and it seemed as if we had failed in the goal of replacing Hamas.

And, everyone, right and left, felt that it was a bad deal. In the Hezbollah ceasefire, we agreed to a withdrawal from southern Lebanon while they agreed to withdraw to north of the Litani River and to not rearm. While it seemed as if they would never live up to the agreement, at least they would be violating the agreement if they did rearm. More on this later.

In the Hamas ceasefire agreement, they agreed to return the hostages. We agreed to allow the people in the Mawasi tent city in southern Gaza to return to their homes in the north. We agreed to withdraw from the cities and the central east-west axis route of Netzarim in the first phase, and the Egyptian border road in the second phase. We also agreed to give up Palestinian terrorists for the hostages. As opposed to the first ceasefire, the hostages would be released three a week rather than ten a day. All this, and Hamas did not have to agree to disarm or not rearm.

During the days after the agreement was signed and before the hostages came home, there was a pall in Israel. Our emotions ranged from sadness to frustration to anger. And then the hostages began coming home.

As I stated above, there were two goals to the war. Topple Hamas and bring home the hostages. There is a value in Israel to never leave anyone behind. It is ingrained in you in the army, and in society. It is a value in the army that everyone who leaves on a mission comes home, alive, wounded or dead. No one is ever left behind.

The value is also a deep seeded Jewish value from the Middle Ages of rescuing hostages at any price. Sadly, there are actual prayers dedicated to freeing hostages because, in the Middle Ages, capturing Jewish people and holding them for ransom was a real thing. There are prayers for the safe return of hostages. Prayers that we now say again every week in synagogue, and that hang on banners at the Western Wall.

From the outset of the war, returning the hostages was paramount, not only because it was right, but because it defined who we are as a society. The hostage families put pressure on the Likud that they were abandoning the values of Zionism, and pressure on the Ultra-Orthodox that they were abandoning the values of Judaism if they did not set the return of the hostages as their highest goal.

If we were frustrated that Hamas was still in power when we agreed to the ceasefire, that dissipated when the hostages began to come home. Whatever we thought when the deal was signed faded into the past. We would deal with Hamas later. Now, the goal of bringing them home was being achieved.

We were not just bringing home hostages. They were not faceless or nameless. Every hostage and every hostage family have become a part of us, a part of our families and our story. On that Sunday we did not bring home three hostages. We brought home Roni, Doron and Emily.

Over a year ago, I wrote how emotionally challenging it was when the hostages came home. How we were thrilled for a half hour when we saw them get out of the Red Cross vehicle, and then were devastated as we re-lived their stories, and October 7th, over and over again. This time it is the complete opposite. The names of the hostages who will be freed are given the day before their release. We find out about them. Who they are. What happened to them and their family. And we meet their family. We re-live their pain of October 7th, but by the time they are released, we have already internalized that part of them, and we know them, their story and their family, much more deeply than just what happened on that awful day. They become our friends, our family. They are a part of us. The news media hardly uses their last names. Last week Keith, Yarden and Ofir came home – that is how it was reported.

And when they come home, we cry. All of us. We cry when we see them. We cry when they meet their families. The news broadcasters cry. The politicians cry, even those on the right who believe that the deal is so bad we shouldn’t be doing it. I understand that people have seen Netanyahu cry. The President has cried on television.

We are all one country. When they come home, the politics don’t matter. Our loved ones have come home. We have lived up to the values of the State and Judaism. And the hostages understand what is going on here too. When they are in the helicopter flying to the hospital, they are given a white board to write a message to the country, to all of us. And they send us their love and gratitude.

And it is personal. Everyone of us knew or knows someone who is a hostage, or at least knows someone who knows someone. In our family, one of the women soldiers who was being held hostage was my daughters’ camp counselor. They saw her being captured on the news while we were sitting in that hotel room after being displaced when the rocket from Gaza hit our building. They were 16 years old, we were homeless, and they asked me if she would be okay. How was I supposed to answer that? I wished I could tell them that everything would be okay, that she would come home, but how could I? I could not say that she was going to be okay. For fifteen months they kept asking me, and for fifteen months they wore a bracelet with her name on it, and attended vigils for her and the other hostages. They once led Havdalah services, the service to mark the end of Shabbat, at hostage square, invited to do so because they knew her. And now, in the second release of hostages, the women soldiers came home. But not just soldiers, their camp counselor came home. It was a happy ending to a long emotional journey for our family. While we were crying as we watched her come back to Israel, the girls cut the bracelets off their wrists. No more vigils. No more asking if she would be okay. She had come home.

I know that Smotrich, one of the central right-wing politicians, cries, even though he does not agree with the ceasefire. And that sums up who we are and what we feel. The struggle of how to achieve the twin goals of the war are split along political lines of left and right, but the struggle also exists within all of us. All of us want to topple Hamas, and all of us want the hostages home. While we disagree on priorities, we all want the same things. Most people do not think the other side is evil, because they understand the other side since the same struggle exists within ourselves.

While this is true, the families of the hostages obviously want their loved ones home at all costs, and do think the far right politicians who were against the ceasefire are evil. And some politicians on the extreme right treat the hostage families as the enemy, and are cruel to them. But that is not the norm in mainstream Israel, or even among most right-wing politicians or supporters, or even hostage families or supporters. Yesterday, one of the daughters of a released hostage held a press conference where she asked for the government to continue the ceasefire until everyone comes home, and acknowledged that it was a difficult decision to stop the fighting when the evil terror group Hamas, who kept her father captive and tortured him for over a year, remains in power. Balancing the two goals exists in all of us.

The hostage release is happening in waves. Thirty-three hostages will be released in the first phase. Three hostages a week, and after six weeks, the final fifteen. It will be an emotional challenge for us. We know that eight of the hostages are dead, and their bodies are coming home. Among the dead are probably three members of the Bibas family; the mom, Shiri, the four year old, Ariel, and the now two year old baby, Kfir. The father, Yarden, was released last week and the first thing he said was: “where are Shiri and the boys?”. It was and is going to be heartbreaking, as we find out who else has died in captivity and watch their families grieve.

There is a hierarchy of who is getting out in this first part of the ceasefire. First out were the civilian women, then the women soldiers, then the old men, then infirmed men. In the second phase the civilian men and male soldiers will be released.

In the first release, three of the civilian women came home, including Emily Damari, who lost two fingers on October 7th and whose hand now perpetually looks like the sign language sign for love. Her hand has become the symbol of resistance and survival for all of Israel. She is a remarkable person, as are all of them. She is constantly smiling and showing off her hand.

After the release of the three civilian women, that left two more civilian women. Shiri Bibas, who, as I said, is probably not alive, and Arbel Yehud, who was being held by Islamic Jihad and not Hamas. In the second release, four of the five women soldiers were released. Israel immediately stopped the ceasefire agreement.

After the second release, Israel was supposed to allow the residents of northern Gaza to return to their homes in the north. They have been living in a tent camp in the south for over a year. Israel blocked the road and refused to let them through, demanding from Hamas that Arbel be freed before any other aspect of the agreement would be implemented. Hamas said that it was complicated and that they had to negotiate with Islamic Jihad. Israel said they didn’t care. The civilian was supposed to be returned, and she wasn’t.

It was a standoff. In Israel, Arbel became the symbol of everything we are fighting for. The hostages are not just numbers, they are people. It was great that four soldiers returned, but they were not interchangeable with Arbel. She was supposed to come home. Arbel, not someone else. We would not abandon her. The world would stand still until she came home.

There were around half a million people on the road, no longer in the tent camp and not able to return to their homes. They started chanting in Arabic: “release Arbel, release Arbel”. It was the most dramatic challenge to Hamas’s rule since they seized power in 2005.

For Israel, it was a reaffirmation that we will bring everyone home, and just as important, that no one is a number but everyone is a real person with a real life.

Hamas caved and set up an extra exchange mid-week that included Arbel, Agam (the last female soldier) and Gadi (an 80-year-old man). We brought Arbel home and we made Hamas bend to us.

If I just described our emotional state, there is also the reality of the ceasefire.

Netanyahu has taken much flack for accepting more or less the same deal that was on the table in May. The problem for Netanyahu is that he deserves it. His protestations about the border road being essential only for its importance to no longer matter when Trump’s advisor arrived and told him he had to take the deal showed him to be making political decisions rather than security decisions.

However, while the protests that we took the same deal are true, what is also true is that we took that deal at a different time. In May we had not yet killed Sinwar or Haniya. We had not dealt with Hezbollah. Assad was still in power in Syria. We had not yet bombed Iran and destroyed its entire aerial defense system and missile construction capabilities. The world is a very different place now than it was in May or August. Remaining at war changed the face of the Middle East, and gave us victories that were unimaginable in May. We could make the deal now because we did not in May.

But there is another side. Could we have taken the ceasefire deal in May, got some of the hostages home, and then resumed fighting and achieved everything that has happened since? This question will divide Israel for years to come, with some people blaming Netanyahu for the unnecessary deaths of some of the hostages, especially Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Alex Lubnov, Carmel Gat, and Almog Sarusi. They were the six hostages murdered when Sinwar was on the run, and three of them were on the list in May of hostages to be released. On the other hand, there will be people praising him for holding steadfast, continuing the war and reshaping the Middle East while regaining our deterrence. Yoav Gallant, the former defense minister, gave a televised interview this week where he blamed Netanyahu for not making the deal, and for not even wanting to attack Hezbollah. The other day I drove by fresh graffiti that said: “Bibi Murderer”. Yet he is a hero to some. We are, and will be divided on this issue for a long time.

There is another side of the ceasefire agreement. Until now Hamas had also not agreed to the ceasefire. They were also the obstacle. While Israelis have a right to blame their own government, they should not forget that the other side did not agree to the ceasefire either. Which leads us to Hamas.

When the ceasefire was announced, we were frustrated and despondent over the fact that Hamas was still in power. If the second stage was supposed to lead to the end of the war, then we failed in our mission to rid Gaza of Hamas rule.

When the first hostages came home, Hamas put on a show with the hostages paraded around in front of countless Hamas terrorists with their guns. It sure did not look like we won the war.

That feeling changed almost immediately. At first, it began changing because we did not care. We were and are so wrapped up in our emotions about the hostages, we did not pay attention to Hamas. Then, something else happened.

To understand what happened to how we are relating to Hamas emotionally, it is important to understand how we feel about the war. We were attacked on October 7th by a cruel, sadistic, barbaric evil entity who wants to destroy us. We were forced into a war for our survival. An existential war. We are sorry for the civilians who were hurt and killed on the other side, but we blame Hamas for their suffering, not us. We went to war to defend ourselves against an evil enemy.

During the war, we were aware of the plight of the civilians on the other side. However, we saw almost nothing in Gaza except small glimpses of a background when our soldiers were interviewed on television. Abroad people have a very different view of the war. They have seen the destruction of Gaza. We did not. We speak Hebrew. We do not watch CNN or any other foreign language news broadcast. When Hamas put on the show of releasing the hostages, they did it with the background of Gaza. What we saw for the first time was the complete destruction of Gaza.

I am going to write something uncomfortable now that is important to understand before going on. Seeing the destruction of Gaza made Israelis feel pretty good about the war. If just a few days earlier we were emotionally distressed over Hamas still being in power, it became obvious that they are presiding over a pile of rubble. If they won the war, it sure seemed to us to be a pyrrhic victory. They went to war to destroy Israel, and here it is, a year plus later, and Gaza is destroyed. What kind of victory is that? I want to stress here that our feelings were directed towards Hamas, not the Gazans. Hamas came to destroy us, and we destroyed their country, regardless if they are parading around as if they won.

When the women soldiers came home in the second release, stood on the stage that Hamas had built for a show, and waved at a hostile crowd smiling as if they were on stage in central Tel Aviv in front of their fans, and then pumped their fists in the air, the myth of Hamas being victorious was gone for Israelis. Who was more powerful? The masked men standing on a pile of rubble that used to be their homes, or our 20-year-old soldiers who were all but giving them the finger after fifteen months of being in hell.

The feeling in Israel became – who cares if it’s a bad deal. Let’s get them all home, and then we will take care of the other part – ending Hamas’s rule. We are more powerful than they are. Not just militarily, but morally.

Looking back on what I wrote in the July email, I said that for Hamas, victory is remaining in power. Survival is victory for them, regardless of how destroyed Gaza is, because they can then rebuild themselves and, they held off the mighty Israeli army.

In war, perception is as important as fact. There is a constant in war that if you do not totally destroy your enemy, everyone gets to declare victory no matter how badly you were beaten. Who won the first Gulf War between Saddam and the Allies? Even though Kuwait was liberated, both sides went home and declared victory. Here is Hamas, still in power, declaring victory, and for much of the world, that is what they see. Not that Israel decimated Hamas and Gaza, but that Hamas is still standing and therefore victorious. They survived the juggernaut of Israel, never mind that they started the war and before we went into Gaza the world thought we were going to be massacred because of the tunnels. They are still standing; therefore, they won.

Hamas’ military capabilities were decimated in the war as well as their arms production and smuggling capabilities. We also eliminated their leadership.

What we did not do was remove them from the civil administration. That was a governmental decision. As alluded to above and in previous emails, Netanyahu’s extreme right partners see only one solution for Gaza. A return to a military occupation and rebuilding settlements there. Anything else and they would have left the coalition leading Netanyahu’s government to fall. However, the army refused to reoccupy, and both the Israeli public and world leaders did not want that either. The logical choice was some kind of Palestinian Authority rule. Netanyahu, not being able to bring back the PA due to internal political considerations, and not being able to demand a military occupation due to the resistance of the army and public, did nothing and has, until now, allowed Hamas to stay in power.

Hamas is still in civil control. They are no longer getting money from abroad but they are in control of all humanitarian aid, both food and medical. They confiscate the aid and then sell it. The aid has become their money source. The public relies on them to feed them and take care of their medical needs. They are still the dictators of Gaza. No one can stand against them or they will be shot, and their families will go without food.

And with that money they are recruiting new members to be terrorists. The new terrorists are sixteen-year-old boys who are offered fifty dollars to join Hamas. That money could be the difference between their families eating or not, so they join. Hamas once again has a huge fighting force, although they are untrained and undisciplined. All this because Netanyahu wanted to stay in power.

Hamas is making a show of strength when releasing the hostages. However, for Israelis, that show seems hollow. Last week the release happened on the rubble of Sinwar’s house. It is not clear what message they wanted to convey, but the message received in Israel was that their leader was dead and his house destroyed. How is that a victory, or a sign of strength?

The most telling event for Hamas since the ceasefire, besides the calls by the Gazans to release Arbel, was what happened after Israel opened the Netzarim corridor and around half a million Gazans returned to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip. Once there, they found that over 80% of northern Gaza is destroyed. There was nothing to come back to. According to Hamas, around 30% of them returned to the tent cities in the south because there is no infrastructure, nowhere to live, no running water or electricity and food prices are four times higher in the north. That number of 30% is low. Estimates are that at least half of them have returned to the south. Whether they returned or not, they have no homes and no possibility of homes in the near future. They have nothing. They are pissed at Hamas and blame them for their situation, and are even more pissed because Hamas keeps telling them that they won the war. The definition of winning the war for Hamas (its own survival) and for the Gazans (having a life) are two very different things.

An aside. The reason why there is so much destruction is because almost every building was a military site, either housing an arms cache or a tunnel entrance. In the urban war, our army destroyed their military which meant destroying their cities.

Also, to be accurate, about 40-50% of the south of Gaza is destroyed. Better than the north, but not good.

Hamas has no ability to rebuild Gaza. The money they are earning off of controlling the humanitarian aid is enough to hold their terrorist group together, but not enough to rebuild. While in general they don’t care about the civilians, they do understand that the situation in Gaza can not be perpetual. Something must be done. And Hamas will not get global support for them to rebuild. For this reason, they have turned to the Palestinian Authority and have asked the PA to partner with them in rebuilding Gaza. The PA is credible, and would get the global funding.

What they want is for the PA to take civil control over Gaza, while they rebuild their military infrastructure, much like the relationship Hezbollah had with Lebanon before the current war where Hezbollah was a shadow government within Lebanon, and was in control of the country in all but name. On the one hand, the PA will not want this to happen. On the other hand, the PA does want a foothold in Gaza, so they may actually agree to partner with Hamas. The problem for the PA is that they are weak. They won’t want to allow Hamas to rebuild militarily, but they will not be able to stop them alone.

From Israel’s perspective, where just a few weeks ago we were depressed that we entered into an agreement that left Hamas in power, Israel now believes it has the upper hand. Right now the goal is to get the hostages home, leaving the other goal, displacing Hamas from power, for later. For now it is okay that Hamas is in power, and even rebuilding. The rebuilding might be concerning, but their military presence is a shadow of what it once was, with untrained kids, and can be taken care of later, after the hostages are home. Much like we have been doing since the active war ended months ago. Allowing them to regroup only to destroy them again.

We now see this as a conflict bigger than just the active war, and we need patience to see it through. Just as we entered into a ceasefire with Hezbollah not knowing how it would be implemented, only to have Syria fall within ten days, the end of the conflict in Gaza has not been written yet.

Life in Gaza is unsustainable. The population cannot continue to live in tents forever. Money and organization are needed to rebuild. If the world is not willing to give that assistance to Hamas, then in the long term, Hamas has no future there. The people are suffering, and they will want solutions. If Hamas cannot give them those solutions, they will either leave* the Gaza Strip or turn on Hamas. If we let the situation remain as it is, Hamas will lose because they will be the obstacle to rebuilding.

* Estimates are that between 30% and 50% of the people would leave immediately if there was somewhere to go. An interesting thing about this statistic is that it is primarily young people who were educated by Hamas.

For Israel, for the moment, the status quo is the best strategy. Let Hamas tread water while we get our people home, and let the Gazans get more frustrated.

Hamas is trying to raise money from Turkey, Qatar and Indonesia, but will probably fail. The rest of the world has to decide how to rebuild Gaza but as long as no one will give Hamas money, they will eventually lose power.

There is one more factor in play that might affect the future. We are releasing terrorists to get the hostages back.

For the 33 hostages, we are releasing 1,900 prisoners. One thousand are detainees arrested during the war, members of Hamas but not those responsible for Oct 7th.

Of the remaining 900, the formula is: 30 for each hostage, and 50 for each of the five soldiers.

Among the 900 are 737 security prisoners that are to be released in the first phase. They are members of Fatah, Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), many of whom have been serving life sentences for murder and terror attacks. They include three architects of the Jerusalem bus bombing on June 11, 2003, the perpetrator in a 2018 terror stabbing in the West Bank, and one of the organizers of a December 2002 attack inside the kitchen of a yeshiva, killing two students and two IDF soldiers. I want to list some of the murderers because their names matter.

- Zakaria Zubeidi, the former Jenin commander of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, who was convicted in 2019 for his part in shootings near Beit El. He also is tied to multiple terror attacks, including a bombing that killed six people at a Beit Shean polling station where members of the Likud party were casting votes in the 2002 primary.

- Iyad Jradat is serving a life sentence for orchestrating the 2003 terror attack in Moshav Gadish, killing one and wounding four others.

- Ahmed Dahiri, a senior PIJ official, who is convicted of murder in that same terror attack.

- Mahmoud Atallah who is serving a life sentence plus 15 years for killing a Palestinian woman he suspected of collaborating with Israel.

- Wissam Abbasi and Muhammad Odeh who carried out five bombings across Israel between March and June 2002, killing 35 people and wounding hundreds, including bombings at Moment Cafe in Jerusalem, the Sheffield Club in Rishon Lezion, and the Frank Sinatra cafeteria at Hebrew University.

- Ahmed Barghouti, operational commander for the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, who is serving 13 life sentences in Israel for involvement in terror attacks in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem that killed six people, including a police officer. This is not Marwan Barghouti, the Palestinian leader who until now is not on any list to be released.

- Khalida Jarrar, a PA lawmaker from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. She is convicted of the 2019 bombing that killed 17-year-old Rina Shnerb and wounded her brother and father while they were hiking in the West Bank.

- Khalil Jabarin, who stabbed Ari Fuld, a father of four, multiple times in the back and neck as he was standing outside a West Bank supermarket in 2018.

Their names are important because Hamas lacks any real leadership since Israel has eliminated Sinwar, Deif and Haniya. That might change with the release of these murderers, especially Zakaria Zubeidi. Israel decimated the Hamas leadership, and the current leaders are second rate. There is no one to replace Sinwar, Haniya and especially Deif, who organized their army. Zubeidi might be the person to replace Deif. Something to watch out for in the future.

Depending who they are, they are being released to the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza or abroad. They are being given a hero’s welcome in the West Bank and Jerusalem, and Hamas is getting accolades for attaining their release, giving Hamas more stature in the territories. However, the ones who can not remain in the Palestinian territories have nowhere to go. No one wants them. Currently, in Cairo, there is a hotel full of them. Egypt won’t let them onto the streets, and no other country will take them, so they sit in a hotel. In the last release, Egypt refused to even let them in as a passage to another country, and those terrorists are sitting in Khan Yunis waiting for somewhere to go.

It is painful to watch mass murderers be released. Painful for society, and painful for the families of the victims. It is the price we are paying to save our own, but it adds to the mixed emotions of the ceasefire deal.

It is impossible to write about what is happening and not mention the Trump declaration.

Trump began his administration by sending his Middle East negotiator, real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, to force Netanyahu to take the ceasefire deal in spite of the political ramifications for Netanyahu.

Then, in a press conference with Netanyahu, Trump declared that the US would seize direct control of the Gaza strip, find a new place for the Gazans to live, keep it as an American territory and build a Riviera on the Eastern Mediterranean Coast.

Hamas started a war to bloody and isolate Israel. Instead of defeating Israel, it is now faced with the fact that the American President has presented the removal of the Palestinian population as a solution to the Gaza crisis.

The statement has rocked the Middle East. No one thinks that Trump’s proposal will happen. He has already backtracked from it. However, presenting it as an option has shaken the status quo that the only solution is two states for two peoples. Trump legitimized the conversation of one state for one people, with the removal of the other people from the land. If the world does not want Trump’s vision to happen, it now must take responsibility to find another solution.

Declaring that the solution is to move the Gazans out of Gaza is a signal to the Middle East and to the Palestinians. If there is no accommodation with Israel, the Palestinians might find themselves stateless forever. It places the responsibility of the conflict on the Palestinians and the world, instead of just on Israel.

Trump’s declaration has helped save the ceasefire on the Israeli side. Netanyahu did not want the ceasefire because his right-wing partners were against it, both because it would end the war with Hamas in power, and because of the release of Palestinian murderers. Trump had forced Netanyahu to take the agreement, and Ben Gvir did leave the government. Netanyahu convinced Smotrich to stay until the end of phase one, thereby maintaining his coalition for the moment, but phase two was in doubt. Trump’s statement has given Netanyahu cover. Now he can say to both of them: “Let’s keep the agreement and bring home all the hostages. And after that happens, the US will step in and get rid of Hamas for us.” Of course that is not going to happen, but everyone can save face and pretend that it will. Trump created a security blanket for Netanyahu to stay in power and get the hostages home.

On the other side, Hamas has to decide what to do. How do they stay in power, or share power? Is it worth it to continue with the agreement, or break it and keep some of the hostages as their only bargaining chip to keep themselves in power? It is unclear what they will decide.

While all this is happening, Israel has opened up another front in the war in the Territories, or the West Bank. Hamas was building an infrastructure within the areas that are under full control of the Palestinian Authority. Starting in December, the PA tried to root them out, especially in Jenin, and was unsuccessful. In mid-January, Israel joined the Jenin campaign. Israel has also been fighting in Tulkarem. The battle in the West Bank has included bombing both cities and ground troops entering the PA run zones.

The PA is trying to be the sole military presence in the Palestinian territories, but is too weak to do so. Israel is not willing to allow Hamas to flourish there, leading it to supersede the PA as the military authority. The release of the Palestinian prisoners makes the situation worse for the PA. Hamas’s popularity is rising as they are seen as folk heroes who can force Israel to make concessions.

The inability of the PA to control Hamas in their territory has ramifications for Gaza. How is the PA expected to rule Gaza if they can’t even rule Jenin?

The issue of the West Bank is also affected by Trump. If the Americans are willing to clear out the Palestinians from Gaza, who is to prevent them from supporting the same policy in the West Bank. For this reason, the PA is floating the idea of moving the Gazans to the West Bank to solidify their power and keep themselves relevant. And maybe even get a state, if only on the West Bank.

There still is a greater conflict going on. In mid-January we were supposed to leave southern Lebanon, with American and French guarantees that Hezbollah would not regroup there. Hezbollah has not lived up to its side of the agreement, and Lebanon has not taken control nor stationed its army in southern Lebanon. Given the circumstances, we announced that we would continue to occupy southern Lebanon.

Even though Hezbollah has not lived up to the agreement, they continue to show signs of weakening. Israel continues to bomb any attempt they make to either move back south, or rearm. This week we bombed an arms depot that they were trying to set up. This is significant because the ceasefire treaty gives us the right to do so, and Israel is sending the message that it will no longer tolerate any arms buildup of Hezbollah or their return to power.

Lebanon elected a new President. They elected the anti-Hezbollah candidate, a clear sign that Hezbollah does not wield the power it once did within Lebanon.

The most telling sign of weakness is that Hezbollah promised the people of southern Lebanon that they would rebuild their homes and cities, but just two weeks ago told the public that they were having logistical problems and could not help them. Their logistical problem is that they have run out of money. Israel destroyed their gold resources and their banks. Iran used to ship money but Israel turns away any plane from Iran to Beirut. And they have no overland access to Iran anymore. Money can not be moved in bank accounts because of a global financial ban. But the most significant blow to their finances is that the new Syrian government has put an end to the drug production and transportation through Syria, cutting off the most important source of money for Hezbollah.

They are also not getting weapons. Not only does Israel not allow aerial shipments to enter Lebanese air space, but the new Syrian government keeps destroying their clandestine attempts to smuggle weapons from Iran that cross into Syrian territory.

In Syria, the new leader, Ahmed Al-Shara’a, is trying to build a Muslim society more akin to Turkey than Afghanistan. Not Jihadi but Muslim. He named a woman as head of the bank of Syria, a sign that the society will not be Jihadi. He is trying to cultivate ties with both Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and might let Turkey establish military bases inside his country to fight the Kurds. He has chosen not to take on the Kurds for now and instead build his country. He is looking for money from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the EU to do so. He is adamantly against Hezbollah, and will not let Iran control him, although he does want to establish relations with them. Everything he is doing is tangentially helping Israel. He has stated that he wants to concentrate on building Syria, not going to war with anyone, including Israel. Israel is taking a wait and see attitude towards the new regime. We have taken over the Syrian side of the security zone in the Golan, declaring that we want a new treaty before we withdraw. Syria is moving in a positive direction, both for itself, and for Israel. But Israel must figure out how to open doors with the new government rather than operate with outdated assumptions that Syria is an enemy regime.

The Houthis remain a threat to Israel. Israel is using this pause in the fighting to strengthen its intelligence gathering against the Houthis. Until now, Israel has successfully destroyed important infrastructure, but Israel would love to get the intelligence needed to kill the Houthi leadership. For Israel, this phase of the war is not over.

Then there is Iran. Iran is not over yet either. This war started with an attack by Hamas, but can only really end when Iran is dealt with. Israel hurt Iran pretty badly in the bombing raids, destroying their air defenses and missile production sites. But the Ayatollahs are still in power, and are still moving towards a nuclear weapon while continuing to export their ideology, terrorism and trying to rearm their proxies. We will need to decide how we want to proceed with Iran. But the war has already made it clear that the real enemy is Islamic Fundamentalist Iran, and not just its proxies.

Pan-Arab Nationalism died in the Six Day War. It was replaced by Islamic fundamentalism as a source of pride and identity for the Muslim world. Will Islamic fundamentalism die in this war, finally leaving the pragmatic Arab and Islamic world to welcome Israel as a fellow nation of the Middle East and make peace with the Jewish State? If that can happen, it can only happen by neutering Iran and destroying its influence.

As in any country, we are not only concerned with external affairs, but much of our time is consumed by internal issues and events.

The government continues to try to pass legislation that they present as reforming a corrupt system but is a mask for compromising the democracy. Seventy percent of the people are against these reforms, but the street protests have died down, at least for now. Here are a few of the bills being presented that might challenge our democracy. I list them here because they are a part of our lives, and are important enough to follow:

- Politicizing the Public Broadcast Channel – an attempt to control the media by making the selection of the committee who runs public broadcasting a political decision.

- Judicial Reform – this is still on the table in various iterations. Recently, the Supreme Court forced Yariv Levin, the Justice Minister, to convene the Judicial Selection Committee and name a new Chief Justice. He did not get the candidate he wanted, and now the Justice Minister, the Speaker of the Knesset and the Prime Minister are all refusing to attend the swearing in ceremony. They are acting like children who did not get their way.

- Knesset Immunity – this is a bill that will grant Knesset members blanket immunity from prosecution of crimes they may commit while they are Knesset members.

- Politicizing the Inspectors General – as with public broadcasting, this is an attempt to control the independent Inspectors General by politicizing the selection committee.

The government will try and perhaps pass some or all of these bills. However, they will all wind up in the Supreme Court and probably be nullified. By the time this happens, we will be headed towards new elections and the government will not have the time to continue to push their agenda.

Regarding the coalition, while there are cracks between the parties, there is no real sign that the government will fall. The various parties understand that they will not win the next election, and are holding on to power over any ideological issue. It is possible that ultra-orthodox conscription can bring the government down, but that still seems improbable.

Even if the current government loses the next election, they will still be around in the opposition sowing divisiveness in Israeli society. Israel is confronting the same issues that plague all western democracies in the 21st century. Politicians pushing fear as a way to rule. Society breaking into political tribalism over national interests, augmented by those politicians and media, both social and cable, that encourage those divisions by keeping people in echo chambers. Israel has a couple of advantages over other western societies. We are confronted with existential issues, like the current war, that by definition rise above political tribalism. We also still all go to the army, where you meet and befriend people who are not your ethnic group, economic status, or political tribe and you must trust your life with them. We are part of the western world, but so far, while the trends that exist in other western societies are affecting us, we have not yet succumbed to them because of our unique circumstances.

The issue of the Ultra-Orthodox going into the army is still being debated. The Ultra-Orthodox keep threatening to topple the government if they don’t get an agreement that does not force them into the army. The National Religious Party (Smotrich) is adamant that they need to be drafted. His community lost many soldiers in the war, and they want to know why it is okay for them to study Jewish texts and fight, but not the Ultra-Orthodox. This issue will probably be diffused by some face saving bill that everyone can pretend will solve the problem only to be thrown out by the Supreme Court. But by then, there will be new elections anyway. So until then, everyone gets to stay in power.

Our cost of living is going up, due to world wide inflation and the war. Our Value Added Tax has risen from 17% to 18%. Mass transportation is more expensive, as are common groceries. Still, for now it means saving a little less rather than not making ends meet. People are not complaining, instead accepting that it is the price we need to pay for the war and our survival.

The people of both the north and south are going home. A sign that the war is slowly being put behind us.

Finally, the war has taken its toll on society. There are people who are leaving the country. It is not a crisis yet, but there is a brain drain. It is something to notice. Those leaving are primarily professionals and doctors. However, for the vast majority of Israelis, we still have a sense of purpose and a feeling of community that explains why we are so optimistic and why people are still willing to go to reserve duty.

Saturday, February 8th, Eli, Or and Ohad came home from their hell in Gaza. Hamas put on quite a show, but the only thing that Israelis saw were the three men standing on a stage, emaciated, frail, pale and unable to open their eyes because too much time had passed since they last saw sunlight. Israel was heartbroken, and shocked. Comparisons were made to the Holocaust.

Or’s wife was killed on October 7th at the Nova Festival. They had arrived just a few minutes before the attack. He has a three-year-old who has been with the grandparents. Or did not know his wife had been murdered until he was released. Or was captured with Hersh, and also did not know Hersh was killed until he got out.

Eli’s wife and two daughters were murdered on October 7th. So was his brother and father. His brother’s body is still in Gaza. He too did not know any of them were dead until his release. The media reported his return by saying: “Eli has left one hell only to arrive in another hell.”

Ohad is known as the first hostage because his daughter, who did survive, called the most famous tv news anchor on October 7th while he was on the air and told him her father was being taken to Gaza. The anchor was incredulous. It was the first report of a hostage. When Ohad got out, the anchor called his daughter on live television and they cried together. Ohad came home emaciated. He hugged his family, and said: “Look. I went there extra-large, and I came back medium”.

We were shocked and heartbroken. Another dip and turn on that emotional roller coaster.

That roller coaster ride is not over. It is going to get worse when instead of live hostages, bodies will be returned to us. Over 70% of us want to continue to phase two of the ceasefire and bring everyone home, opting to achieve this goal before finishing off Hamas. The emaciated state of the hostages that were just released will put more pressure on the government to implement phase two and get everyone home.

We are optimistic that Hamas will be gone at the end of the conflict. We remain optimistic as a society with the vast majority of us believing there is a better future for the State of Israel just around the corner.

One more thing. We have chosen our singer for Eurovision. Yuval Refael. She is a survivor of the Nova massacre. She lived through the most horrific experience. She was wounded by shrapnel while she hid from Hamas for eight hours under the weight of the dead bodies of her friends. Now, she is representing Israel, beaming with a great smile as she sings songs about a better tomorrow. She is the epitome of resolve, resilience, hope and light.

The opinion fails to recognize that Netanyahu saved Israel from a Biden/EU supported ceasfire that was pushed while Iran and its three proxies were firing on all cylinders. Netenyahu held firm and it was Trump who won and restored arms in Israel and fear and dread in Israel’s enemies.

4 posted on 02/19/2025 3:06:30 AM PST by sauropod (Make sure Satan has to climb over a lot of Scripture to get to you. John MacArthur Ne supra crepidam)

Thank you. The analysis credibly explains why Israel made the hostage deal, the strategy behind the Trump proposal, and the continuing need to defeat Iran.

6 posted on 02/19/2025 10:28:27 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)

Thank you for posting. Long, but well worth the time to read. This is probably one of the most comprehensive and well written treatises covering the impact of the Gaza War on Israeli values, life, decisions and politics.

Based on the low number of comments, I fear that few Freepers took time to read this treatise. They lost an opportunity to gain significant insight and understanding of the situation in Israel.

I pray for Israel daily.

7 posted on 02/19/2025 1:10:40 PM PST by JeepersFreepers (The heart of the wise inclines to the right but the heart of the fool to the left. (Eccl 10:2 NIV))

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.