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The Big Happening [Syria analysis]
Substack ^ | 12/22/24 | Big Serge

Posted on 12/25/2024 2:17:55 PM PST by EnderWiggin1970

There is an oft-quoted remark from Vladimir Lenin, which in its English formulation usually reads something like: "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

This is one of those aphorisms which has been exercised practically to death, but there are rare occasions where it perfectly fits the chaotic tempo of world events, and few cases fit the bill better than the fall of the Syrian Arab Republic and its embattled (former) President, Bashir Al-Assad. Syria was first plunged into Civil War by an escalating insurgency in 2012, and more than a decade of grueling positional fighting and sieges, including a maddening four-year siege of Aleppo, saw the frontlines in the country coagulate into an uneasy quasi-stasis.

The Assad regime’s endurance (with timely and crucial assistance from Russia and Iran), which saw government forces claw back from the brink beginning in 2015, became something of a running joke, spawning the infamous “Assad Curse”, in reference to Assad’s proclivity to politically outlast western leaders calling for his removal. Having survived more than a decade of Civil War and successfully recapturing Syria’s crucial urban corridor from Damascus to Aleppo, few people saw what was coming next.

(Excerpt) Read more at bigserge.substack.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Military/Veterans; Society
KEYWORDS: ajoyousazovxmas; anotherbidenwar; anotherputinfail; assad; assadworshippersonfr; assistantdemsonfr; bidenclaimscredit; geopolitics; merryazovnazixmas; quotinglenin; rabidrussophobes; russia; russiarussiarussia; sunnidictatorship; syria; timbersycamore
I always appreciate this bloggers' insights on the Ukraine SMO as well as on military history, and his analysis of Syria is as insightful as ever. I particularly appreciated his point that the Syrian population (mostly in the western coastal/oasis cities) is dependent on the natural resources (gas/oil) and agriculture of the eastern region. If Syrian is broken apart by continued fighting or otherwise unable to cultivate the eastern resources to the benefit of the whole Syrian population, than the bulk of the population will remain impoverished and readily radicalized by any credible savior who comes along.

"The vast and bloated population of the oasis city corridor cannot survive without access to both the more productive agricultural lands in the east (and even then, remediation of the irrigation system and more favorable rainfall will be essential) and the ability to export Syria’s gas and oil resources. If the interior urban corridor remains cut off from the economic resources of Syria’s east, it will be doomed to remain an overpopulated and impoverished breeding ground for dissent and violence. It likewise requires access to the coastal range to facilitate economic access to the Mediterranean. Syria’s astonishing population increase in the latter half of the 20th Century was only possible because the Syrian Arab Republic linked the corridor of oasis cities with the the coastal range and the Euphrates basin in the east. In other words, for the population of Syria to have any viable economic future, the country must have essentially the same discrete territory that it had prewar - and even then, the deteriorating irrigation system in the east makes a stable recovery doubtful."

1 posted on 12/25/2024 2:17:55 PM PST by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970

The CIA Timber Sycamore regime change program finally worked. With uncountable billions, close air support for ISIS/FSA/Al Qeida, and bombing Syrian military and Russian contractors... we were able to bring in a Sunni wahabbist dictatorship!

We withdrew the 10 million reward on the terrorist who became their leader.

Now we just have to convince the world it was a good thing.
Too bad for Christians.


2 posted on 12/25/2024 3:04:58 PM PST by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2024... RETURN OF THE JEDI..)
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To: sauropod

.


3 posted on 12/25/2024 6:53:03 PM PST by sauropod ("You didn't take a country. You only won a football game!" - Dan Dakich Ne supra crepidam)
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To: DesertRhino

Erdoo the Islamist dictator of Turkey is behind all of this. He is the only head of state of a nation that shelter’s ISIS Terrorists and arms and supports them.

This will not end well.

They are trying to cement control before Trump is sworn in.

ComDem’s are to blame for allowing it to happen.


4 posted on 12/25/2024 7:16:01 PM PST by Texas Fossil (Texas is not about where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind and Attitude.)
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To: DesertRhino

Amr Tsarfati-

“Egypt requests the closure of the Syrian embassy in Cairo until further notice.”

(there were demonstrations in Egypt in past 2 days calling for removal of Sisi, but the numbers did not look large. So called Palestinians I suspect.)


My call on this? Turkey (Erdoo) is trying to take down President Sisi in Egypt and take over Syria. The Al Qaeda freak turned “statesman” is showing his terrorist colors already. No one is being fooled.

I have watched Sisi a long time. He saved Egypt from Obozo’s take down of Mubarak and installation of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Egyptians can see through this.


5 posted on 12/26/2024 4:11:01 AM PST by Texas Fossil (Texas is not about where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind and Attitude.)
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To: DesertRhino
Too bad for Christians.

One thing I've noticed is that since the end of the Cold War the State Dept. etc. has consistently acted to break down protections and bulwarks against persecution and genocide of Christians all over the world. I'm hardly kidding when I opine that Satan has been in charge of the State Department since that time.

6 posted on 12/26/2024 7:56:05 AM PST by EnderWiggin1970
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