Posted on 11/05/2024 7:52:28 AM PST by Red Badger
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
12:56 PM · Nov 4, 2024
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2.1M Views
Quite encouraging.
Penn is the key. He has to win it. That late Iowa poll is a BS attempt to boost Dem turnout.
Too big to rig.
Some people just want to lose.
The question is, will he be denied his victory as in 2020?
Exactly. or as my martial arts instructor used to say, punch through your target
Concur.
There is zero authentic enthusiasm for Harris. It is all manufactured hype. The only real thing I hear from “passionate supporters” of Harris are the deranged ramblings about treason, J6, etc. It’s laughable in a way but also very sad they resort to such low tactics. Yet that just isn’t enough - probably because nobody really believes that “Trump is Adolf” BS - to motivate people. White women abortion fans is about it.
The early vote has benefited Republicans mostly because Democrats haven’t shown up. Now if GOP turnout at the polls today is about as strong as it usually is (less those who did pay heed and vote early) it’s hard to see how Harris can pull this off.
Down ballot could be a different story. Everybody hates Congress but loves their congressman. It’s very rare for a huge swing either way but it important Trump comes in with something of a mandate - strong in the EC but just 270 will do… but also with Congress going in too. His first term was hamstrung by Pelosi but with House and Senate maybe Trump can get some serious things accomplished. Something that the next generation of GOP candidates can build on.
All assuming America wins tonight. Vote and pray.
Yes, I look at social media a lot, it really gives a good focus on the mindset of the country. It helped me pick correctly that Trump would win in 2016 and Biden would win in 2020.
Well in 2024 it’s obvious as hell to me that Trump is going to win. Just take a look at Kamalas Twitter account, almost every comment is from Trump supporters. Kamala supporters are nowhere to be found. She is going to be obliterated.
https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1853826929633235440
At Trump’s rallies last night he looked like he knew.
I like your optimism! I learned long ago that it was better for me to be pleasantly surprised than count on the desired outcome and be disappointed, but that just proves as Tom Petty put it “the waiting is the hardest part”.
All it means is the Democrats are going to have to steal more votes to win after the vote count.
Sounds plausible.
Although I do think NH is in play.
The micro sample of Dickson Knotch (sp?) the tiny tiny first returns from NH was telling. In my memory, it’s never been anything but 100% democrat. It tied 3-3 for Trump.
As an aside, I woke up at 2:30 after having a dream about that little town and the results were exactly as I dreamed, with a follow up of a blow out in favor of Trump. Don’t pretend to be a prophet or a psychic, but it was very encouraging.
I remember back in the early 80’s, some pundit on TV said something to the effect that if every eligible American voted 100%, it would scare the hell out of the politicians...........
Second, I am not saying Trump won't win (though it is still far from certain), I am just acknowledging the leftist propensity to cheat, massively. After "COVID" and 2020, it is hard not to be concerned, though the early numbers and Heels Up's obvious incompetence and unpopularity are grounds for optimism.
I woke up at 2:30 as well.
I had to go pee..................
Yep, it’s a completely different vibe than 2020. I thought Trump would win in a squeaker then, and yes there was most likely cheating that got Biden the “win”, but it certainly was close enough for them to get away with it.
I just don’t see that this time. I don’t think they’re even going to bother, they’ll take the “L” and regroup for 28.
Voted in Bucks County PA and it was VERY heavy turnout-—waited 45 minutes. Usually there is “zero” wait time. Hopefully it’s a good sign because if she gets in I will literally have to sell the house and figure things out from there.
Black pill is a tendency to look at a half full glass and see a half empty one.
There has been a lot of that around here lately.
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