Posted on 11/03/2024 8:10:36 AM PST by cgbg
Let us look at some early voting numbers (includes mail in and in person early voting)
I pulled out eight large or key or interesting states where full data was available.
I compared the registered Democrat percentage of early votes in those states comparing 2024 to 2020 presidential election figures.
Democrat leaning Independents were not included in these numbers, only registered Democrats.
Democrats have hundreds of millions to get their vote out Tuesday. If we’re counting on them not to turn out, we lose.
Republicans have to hit historic turnout levels to prevail.
One of the interesting side effects of mail in and early voting is it eliminated the effectiveness of local peer pressure.
In the old days if you lived in a hard core Democratic precinct all your friends and neighbors were on the lookout to make sure you voted.
Now the Democrat can just say “I mailed in my vote earlier this week” and then they can get away with not voting.
I think that is part of what is happening in 2024.
(If anyone checks on them later after the election with precinct registration data they can just say “I don’t know what happened. It must have gotten lost in the mail.”)
” I wonder if Democrats are thinking “Crap, I can’t vote for that idiot Kamala and I sure am not voting for Trump, so I’ll just sit this one out”...?”
So far, that is exactly what has happened in many the inner cities where the RATs are counting on huge margins — Mikwaukee, Philadelphia and Atlanta as just a few examples.
Could still change, but time is running short.
I’d much rather be in our position than theirs.
I am just crunching numbers—not “counting” on anything:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/american-voters-expectations-for-voting-this-year/
No emotion.
No drama.
No hope or fear.
Cold equations.
I mailed it but USPS; they probably dumped mine in that creek dump.
If a candidate hast to go and demean themselves on Saturday night live three days before the election something is definitely wrong. It made her look incredibly weak and stupid.
Minor addendum — Wisconsin and Michigan do not register by party so early vote examination has to know the county of concentration of Dems vs GOP.
WI has about 5% blacks in the electorate. Nearly all are in Milwaukee, and Milwaukee county’s early vote turnout is much diminished from 2020.
Thanks.
You are welcome.
There was Ohio data available earlier this week—it was a ridiculous early vote blowout for President Trump.
Unfortunately they took down the data.
I also read that the Texas numbers are similar—insane President Trump blowout—folks are going to be stunned with those numbers.
Assuming a "best case scenario" for Democrats, I used the 2020 final November general election returns by county to break out the early voting turnout by county. This assumes that 2024 turnout will match 2020 turnout, which is why I called it "best case" for Democrats.
What I found is that the "best case" for Democrats is that they are outpacing Republican early-voting by only 2.8%.
-PJ
Of course they took it down, they can’t have it look close before they attempt the steal.
I agree this is the best tea leaf to read.
There is no reason democrat early voters would not show up, except they are not voting.
The only potential (and I agree this is a weak potential) is they switched from early voting to voting absentee. I don’t see much compelling reason for such behavior, however. I’m sure there is data on absentee returns by party affiliation to check.
I’m caustically optimistic this will have large down ballot effects, such that the stated intent by RINOS (China Mitch) to interfere will be weakened.
Here is one article that has just the mail in voters by party in Ohio:
A crazy Republican blowout and mail in votes are the strength of the Democrats:
Republican: 612K
Democrat: 394K
No bring friends and family. Drag people to polls.
There is a win, then there is a win to beat the cheat, then there is a win RINOs are scared.
If you want to dig deeper in the links you can compare mail in ballots requested to mail in ballots submitted—also by party.
I’m voting on election day. Early voting is just another part of the ballot fraud scam — either my early ballot will get “lost” or will be replaced with the DNC slate, or will give the DNC the numbers they need to fake before election day is over. I hope no one here falls for that.
Texas article:
More than a million Republican lead in Texas.
That is the Democratic strength.
Nobody is ready for the Trump wildly high numbers in Texas.
Fraud can happen in dozens of different ways.
There is no way to get around it.
I do not think it will have a major impact this election—but there is no way I can prove that.
There was Ohio data available earlier this week—it was a ridiculous early vote blowout for President Trump.
Unfortunately they took down the data.
I also read that the Texas numbers are similar—insane President Trump blowout—folks are going to be stunned with those numbers.
—————————————————————
I’m in Central Ohio for the first time in my life. I voted early. I voted on Thursday. I waited about an hour and this was at 11 o’clock in the morning.
Here is one article that has just the mail in voters by party in Ohio:
A crazy Republican blowout and mail in votes are the strength of the Democrats:
Republican: 612K
Democrat: 394K
——————————————————-
This is good news for our Senate candidate. But as far as Trump, it’s a fine deal.
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