Posted on 10/22/2024 1:01:48 PM PDT by Red Badger
(DCNF)—Journalist Mark Halperin said Tuesday that former President Donald Trump will secure victory on Nov. 5 if early voting trends hold.
While Democrats maintain a significant lead in early voter turnout, Republicans have cut the gap compared to 2020, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Halperin, on his 2WAY platform, said all the analysts he has spoken to since Monday believe Trump will win if this trend continues, as Democrats will be unable to combat Republicans’ early vote gains on Election Day.
VIDEO AT LINK............
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that’s a big if, we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win the election … Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day … It’s extraordinarily important, and we got to track that day to day,” Halperin said. “That’s more important than the polls right now. It’s more important than almost anything because it’s giving us insight into a variety of factors that are accounting for a Republican overperformance by various metrics in the early voting in the battleground states.”
The journalist later quoted a blog post by The Nevada Independent CEO and editor Jon Ralston published Monday evening.
WATCH:
“The Clark firewall, that’s Clark County where Las Vegas is, where the vast majority of the state’s population is, has all but collapsed. The Democrats usually have a huge lead there, 4,500 votes. The rurals are overperforming their share of the electorate,” Halperin said. “And [Ralston] says … ‘It’s too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.’”
“As we said yesterday, don’t overread the early vote, okay? It can change. We don’t know exactly who’s casting these ballots, how they’re voting, etc.,” Halperin added. “But every analyst I’ve talked to in the last 24 hours, including people who speak publicly, say if this continues, Donald Trump can’t lose because the Democrats can’t possibly do well enough on Election Day.”
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten asserted Monday that Trump will probably gain ground against Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day, despite her potential early voting lead.
“We’re expecting that Election Day vote to be very good for Donald Trump. And the average polling, we see him up by 17 [points],” Enten said.
“Even if Harris leads in that early count because of this mail vote, Donald Trump is very likely going to close the gap pretty quickly on Election Day,” he added.
Trump currently holds leads over Harris in all of the top battleground states, according to RealClearPolling averages.
Ah, but the shipping containers are already being loaded on to long haul trucks...pallets and pallets of ballots for the cackling one!
Way too much is being made of this.
If votes are coming in early, then that means they will not come in late because they already came in.
In other words, accurate early voting results predict exactly how many ballots the DNC will need to fake.
If the numbers hold up…
Time to double down. Grab Harry and his friend drag them to the polls!
She’s going to get huge numbers in the 2AM to 4AM voters on the day after the election.
I live in Tennessee. Trump will probably do well here. ;-)
How do you know that? If this is all it takes for complacency then folks really never cared much at all about inflation, open borders, transgender mandates, and other vile issues. If anything, articles like this encourage folks to finish strong. And it discourages the opposition.
In some people. But another post got me to go down to vote at noon today and my wife just left to go vote, too.
I agree.
I also must recognize that I live in a bubble. I post among like-minded people here and my Twitter algorithm pretty much feeds me nothing but "Trump is gonna win!" tweets.
As such, I try to remain cautiously optimistic.
Anyways, lurking over at DU, I can see they live in their own bubble. They're convinced that Kamala is running away with it and the polling is all skewed by worthless polls paid for by Trump's campaign. They're certain that the early voting numbers are showing the Democrats with a massive advantage.
So, we all live in bubbles. Keep this in mind. It ain't over yet.
Agreed—the models are based on a series of assumptions—no clue if those assumptions are correct or not.
The writers have too much time on their hands.
I like the polling trends—which are much more meaningful than the raw numbers—but this “early voting” stuff does not make a whole lot of sense to me.
I went this afternoon. It was crazy busy. There was a line at 2 p.m. when I got there. One of the men working the polls said he’s been doing this for years and has never seen turnout like this.
It is said not to judge a book by its cover, but I’d bet a month’s paycheck that at least 90% (if not 100%) of those “books” at my polling place this afternoon were voting the same way I did.
I did on opening day. Long line about two hours all total.
The problem imo is they had only four voting machines open
and operating. Many people can't wait like that. I my case
I'm retired and don't have a schedule to keep except where is
the toilet.
They still have several days to bring out an October surprise. I don’t care what they drag out, I’m voting for Trump! I don’t put it past them to start a hot war to cancel elections; they’re THAT evil.
You are exactly correct. Considering that 2020 advice was to vote on election day and now the advice is to vote early, of course Republicans are going to have a stronger showing now than they did in 2020.
No overconfidence please.
I’ll still be going to vote in person on November 5th
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Hell I’ve voted in person already. Had to stand in line
for a while to get into the voting machines. But once in
It was fast as the ballot wasn’t that long.
I followed the links to the Nevada article and read it a couple of times to make sure I understood what the writer was trying to say.
All of this is based on an assumption (or model if you prefer) that early voting enthusiasm (turnout percentage of registered party members) is a reasonable proxy for total voting enthusiasm (and therefore turnout).
There is no way to know if this has any validity or not.
Considering that 2020 advice was to vote on election day
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Wasn’t it still screwed up on election day? Wasn’t the
country still in some forms of lock down?
The point is they are polling those who have already voted AND those who will vote on election day.
Trump is so far ahead among those who will vote on election day, that the early vote lead the RATs have is not nearly enough.
No time to get complacent. As the author states, this could change, but overall this is GREAT news!
No need to downplay it.
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