Posted on 05/17/2024 9:18:27 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
By the early 400s, the Roman Empire was coming apart at the seams and in desperate need of strong, competent leadership. In theory, Honorius should have been the right man for the job.
Born into the royal household in Constantinople, Honorius had been groomed to rule, practically since birth, by the finest experts in the realm. So even as a young man, Honorius had already accumulated decades of experience.
Yet Rome’s foreign adversaries rightfully believed Honorius to be weak, out of touch, divisive, and completely inept.
He had entered into bonehead peace treaties that strengthened Rome’s enemies. He paid vast sums of money to some of their most powerful rivals and received practically nothing in return. He made virtually no attempt to secure Roman borders, leaving the empire open to be ravaged by barbarians.
Inflation was high. Taxes were high. Economic production declined. Roman military power declined. And all of Rome’s foreign adversaries were emboldened.
To a casual observer it would have almost seemed as if Honorius went out of his way to make the Empire weaker.
One of Rome’s biggest threats came in the year 408, when the barbarian king Alaric invaded Italy; imperial defenses were so non-existent at that point that ancient historians described Alaric’s march towards Rome as unopposed and leisurely, as if they were “at some festival” rather than an invasion.
Alaric and his army arrived to the city of Rome in the autumn of 408 AD and immediately positioned their forces to cut off any supplies. No food could enter the city, and before long, its residents began to starve.
Historians have passed down horrific stories of cannibalism– including women eating their own children in order to survive.
Rather than send troops and fight, however, Honorius agreed to pay a massive ransom to Alaric, including 5,000 pounds of gold, 30,000 pounds of silver, and literally tons of other real assets and commodities.
(The equivalent in today’s money, adjusted for population, would be billions of dollars… similar to what the US released to Iran in a prisoner swap last year.)
Naturally Honorius didn’t have such a vast sum in his treasury… so Romans were forced to strip down and melt their shrines and statues in order to pay Alaric’s ransom.
Ironically, one of the statues they melted was a monument to Virtus, the Roman god of bravery and strength… leading the ancient historian Zosimus to conclude that “all which remained of Roman valor and intrepidity was totally extinguished.”
Rome had spent two centuries in the early days of the empire– from the rise of Augustus in 27 BC to the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD– as the clear, unrivaled superpower. Almost no one dared mess with Rome, and few who did ever lived to tell the tale.
Modern scholars typically view the official “fall” of the Western Roman Empire in the year 476. But it’s pretty clear that the collapse of Roman power and prestige took place decades before.
When Rome was ransomed in 408 (then sacked in 410), it was obvious to everyone at the time that the Emperor no longer had a grip on power.
And before long, most of the lands in the West that Rome had once dominated– Italy, Spain, France, Britain, North Africa, etc. were under control of various Barbarian tribes and kingdoms.
The Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Vandals, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Burgundians, Berbers, etc. all established independent kingdoms. And for a while, there was no dominant superpower in western Europe. It was a multi-polar world. And the transition was rather abrupt.
This is what I think is happening now– we’re experiencing a similar transition, and it seems equally abrupt.
The United States has been the world’s dominant superpower for decades. But like Rome in the later stage of its empire, the US is clearly in decline. This should not be a controversial statement.
Let’s not be dramatic; it’s important to stay focused on facts and reality. The US economy is still vast and potent, and the country is blessed with an abundance of natural resources– incredibly fertile farmland, some of the world’s largest freshwater resources, and incalculable reserves of energy and other key commodities.
In fact, it’s amazing the people in charge have managed to screw it up so badly. And yet they have.
The national debt is out of control, rising by trillions of dollars each year. Debt growth, in fact, substantially outpaces US economic growth.
Social Security is insolvent, and the program’s own trustees (including the US Treasury Secretary) admit that its major trust fund will run out of money in just nine years.
The people in charge never seem to miss an opportunity to dismantle capitalism (i.e. the economic system that created so much prosperity to begin with) brick by brick.
Then there are ubiquitous social crises: public prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law; the weaponization of the justice system; the southern border fiasco; declining birth rates; extraordinary social divisions that are most recently evidenced by the anti-Israel protests.
And most of all the US constantly shows off its incredibly dysfunctional government that can’t manage to agree on anything, from the budget to the debt ceiling. The President has obvious cognitive disabilities and makes the most bizarre decisions to enrich America’s enemies.
Are these problems fixable? Yes. Will they be fixed? Maybe. But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”.
Plotting this current trajectory to its natural conclusion leads me to believe that the world will enter a new “barbarian kingdom” paradigm in which there is no dominant superpower.
Certainly, there are a number of rising rivals today. But no one is powerful enough to assume the leading role in the world.
China has a massive population and a huge economy. But it too has way too many problems… with the obvious challenge that no one trusts the Communist Party. So, most likely China will not be the dominant superpower.
India’s economy will eventually surpass China’s, and it has an even bigger population. But India isn’t even close to the ballpark of being the world’s superpower.
Then there’s Europe. Combined, it still has a massive economic and trade union. But it has also been in major decline… with multiple social crises like low birth rates and a migrant invasion.
Then there are the energy powers like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia; they are far too small to dominate the world, but they have the power to menace and disrupt it.
The bottom line is that the US is no longer strong enough to lead the world and keep adversarial nations in check. And it’s clear that other countries are already adapting to this reality.
Earlier this month, for example, China successfully launched a rocket to the moon as part of a multi-decade mission to establish an International Lunar Research Station.
By 2045, China hopes to construct a large, city-like base along with several international partners including Russia, Pakistan, Thailand, South Africa, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Egypt. Turkey and Nicaragua are also interested in joining.
This is pretty remarkable given how many nations are participating, even if just nominally. Yet the US isn’t part of the consortium.
This would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. But today the rest of the world realizes that they no longer need American funding, leadership, or expertise.
We can see similar examples everywhere, most notably in Israel and Ukraine. And I believe one of the next shoes to drop will be the US dollar.
After all, if the rest of the world doesn’t need the US for space exploration, and they can ignore the US when it comes down to World War 3, then why should they need the US dollar anymore?
The dollar was the clear and obvious choice as the global reserve currency back when America was the undisputed superpower. But today it’s a different world.
Foreign nations continuing to rely on the dollar ultimately means governments and central banks buying US government bonds. And why should they take such a risk when the national debt is already 120% of GDP?
In addition, Congress passed a new law a few weeks ago authorizing the Treasury Department to confiscate US dollar assets of any country it deems an “aggressor state.”
While people might think this is a morally righteous idea, the reality is that it will only turn off foreign investors. Why should China, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else buy US government bonds when they can be confiscated in a heartbeat?
All of this ultimately leads to a world in which the US dollar is no longer the dominant reserve currency. We’re already starting to see signs of that shift, and it could be in full swing by the end of the decade.
His mistake is that he's too emotionally tied to gold and silver. There's nothing wrong with commodities, but it's a very small segment of finance.
The US dollar is too strong in the opinion of many - including President Trump.
This issue is debt-based money - not precious metals.
That is what is enslaving the citizens of the world.
China is now in the position that the USA was after WW2: half the world's steel production, and a similar proportion of industrial goods.
China is a factory nation who's economy is utterly cratering - leading the rest of the world into the abyss of a very long-lasting recession that could turn into a depression for some.
” China is a factory nation who’s economy is utterly cratering - leading the rest of the world into the abyss of a very long-lasting recession that could turn into a depression for some. “
So like the USA in 1929, then ?
We are so screwed.
I don’t know. Whatever.
Every time I read one of these “ancient foresight” pieces, I receive the same enlightenment:
HANG ON TO YOUR WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION.
;-)
>> China is now in the position that the USA was after WW2: half the world’s steel production, and a similar proportion of industrial goods.
Yeah, but who’s #1 in moviemaking, music videos, sports, and pr0n? Huh?
I would think the present course of countries selling Treasuries is a pretty good indicator - but it would take something else, like, say, disclosure that there is no gold in Ft. Knox might do the trick.
Very much so.
The international bankers control the future actions and labor of the world, through debt-based currency.
This with "money" simply own "claims on the future labor of others". Money is a claim on debt.
Right now there is an enormous shortage of US dollars (Eurodollars) internationally to settle trade between nations.
That's why the nations of the world are doing everything they can to create new debt - including the US.
It's why student loans went from $300 billion outstanding in 2000 to over $1.8 trillion now.
It's why the government attempted to have people take out new debt in 2007/08 through their "Cash for Clunkers" program - instead of telling people to be wise with their spending and become debt free.
If all debt were paid off then there would be no money. There would be zero claims on debt - therefore zero money.
The roaring 20's were a means to have the servants take out large amounts of debt through speculation. People like Groucho Marx did heavy real-estate speculation in Florida.
Then the banksters pulled the rug in 1929. It was the largest transfer of wealth at the time. Those making the loans tooks the underlying assets from the slaves.
2007/08 wasn't an accident. It was planned. There are signs to look for that show when the banksters are getting ready to steal wealth again - I was writing about it in late 2006 into 2007.
We're at a much worse point now. The bubble pop will be ginormous.
Look at the equities market in 2007. It was reaching new highs every day. A "soft landing" was talked about often.
This go around I see numbers showing a downturn that will easily last 10 years or more.
People think it can't happen. Those same people need to study the economy of Japan - and the generations who had their lives stolen from them in the aftermath.
One problem? Most Republicans don't understand economics any better than the Demonrats.
Japan is selling US Treasuries because the yen is closing in on 160 again - levels not seen in over 30 years. Their people are suffering.
They're selling US Treasuries and buying yen with result, in a failing effort to prop up their currency.
It's not because they hate the US.
That is going to be many families with jobs crash even more and the housing bubble pops - with loans higher than the new value of the house.
It won't be pretty.
People should be watching the price of oil. It's an easy general indicator. Two wars going on, OPEC reducing inventory, and they still can't keep WTI above $80.
“It’s not because they hate the US.”
I don’t think selling Treasuries or pulling away from the Dollar as a Reserve Currency means a country “hates the US”.
Do you?
They're not going to establish a new reserve currency. The banksters won't allow it.
Besides, anyone thinking BRICS and their cohorts would be successful at it when they're all simply factory nations - at best - doesn't understand international trade settlement. Everybody, and I mean everybody, is clamoring for Eurodollars (US dollars in the foreign markets). There just isn't any to easily be had.
Nice old V8 automobile! Does it run?
>> This is an actual photo of me and my family.
Which one are you, Laz? :-)
I’m the one that looks like they’re living in poverty.
I think he’s the cute lil’ guy in the overalls.
>> That’s why the nations of the world are doing everything they can to create new debt - including the US.
>> It’s why student loans went from $300 billion outstanding in 2000 to over $1.8 trillion now.
Bullshit. Your screed is sounding a lot like a support group for Modern Monetary Theory.
Which itself is bullshit upon bullshit.
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