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Little Brother, where art thou?

“The massive Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to China that Russia hopes will replace the European gas export market is delayed, … reports. China doesn’t need the gas as much and Russia is desperate, cementing its little brother role”

“Russia’s planned gas mega-pipeline to China hit by construction delay”

“Moscow and Beijing have not yet agreed details of mammoth infrastructure project, says Mongolian prime minister“

“Construction on the Kremlin’s long-planned mega-pipeline connecting Russia’s western gasfields with China is expected to be delayed, the prime minister of Mongolia has warned, in a blow to Moscow’s plans to secure a new market for the gas it previously sold to Europe.

The so-called Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which will cross Mongolian territory, has been a priority for Moscow for more than a decade but gained even greater importance since Europe curbed its imports of Russian gas in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Mongolia’s prime minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene previously told the Financial Times that he expected construction of the 3,550km pipeline, including 950km through Mongolian territory, to begin in 2024. Asked whether the partners will stick to that timetable, he said that Russia and China are yet to agree on critical details of the mammoth infrastructure project.

“Those two sides still need more time to do more detailed research on the economic studies,” Oyun-Erdene said in an interview, adding that record global gas prices during the past two years had complicated negotiations. “The Chinese and Russian sides are still doing the calculations and estimations and they are working on the economic benefits.”

Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak wrote in the state-backed magazine Energy Policy on Thursday that the timing on construction will be finalised after signing binding agreements with Chinese partners.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at least twice last year, but while Russia has repeatedly emphasised its readiness to launch PS-2, Beijing has been conspicuously silent.”

https://www.ft.com/content/f37f4b84-0d2c-4e7b-882c-3fb26822bb9c?shareType=nongift

Aftermath Of Last Night’s Airstrikes
As the U.S. determines what effect 85 strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria had, there were new attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/everything-we-know-about-the-aftermath-of-last-nights-airstrikes

Damage Report
While the Pentagon has yet to release a bomb damage assessment, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said while 23 militia members were killed in and around Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria, the ultimate damage to their operations was limited.

SOHR stated that 13 militia members were killed in American airstrikes on positions in Al-Mayadeen city while another 10 were killed in airstrikes on positions in Deir Ezzor countryside.

There is an ongoing “state of alert, redeployment and repositioning of Iranian militias and the evacuation of many positions, for fear of more strikes in the coming hours,” SOHR reported.

“The American strikes on Iranian militias in the areas of Deir Ezzor and its countryside caused confusion for those militias, but they do not end the Iranian presence in the region, as Iran has at least 20,000 Syrian and non-Syrian fighters spread over a geographic area extending from Al-Bokamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border, passing through Al-Mayadeen and Deir Ezzor, all the way to Jabal Al-Bushri, the depth of the Syrian desert and the T2 station.”

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ Nice. A Huge Group of Russians Get Taken Into a Pocket ]

==
Day 711: Feb 04

Today, there is a lot of news from the Avdiivka direction.

But first of all, there is an important update from Crimea.

As you remember, the Ukrainian Air Force conducted a comprehensive combined strike on the peninsula.

Recently released satellite footage confirms that Russian claims about the interception of all missiles were untrue because the command center on the Belbek Air Base was completely wiped out.

Apart from the killed general, there are reportedly dozens of losses. Moreover, the Spokeswoman for the Ukrainian Southern Group of Forces reported that in the aftermath of the Ukrainian strike on the Russian missile-carrying corvette, approximately 40 Russian crew members were killed.

When it comes to the Avdiivka direction, the most intense clashes are taking place in the central part of the region.

The situation here was extremely confusing because, based on the geolocated footage, Russian soldiers were continuously spotted on the first streets of Avdiivka, while simultaneously Ukrainians were present on the main defense belts in front of these streets.

The Ukrainian fortifications here are quite formidable and helped to repel countless Russian attacks in this region.

The first line of fortifications is located between the railway and the highway and mostly consists of trenches. The second line is north of the railway and heavily relies on the bunker inside the embankment.

The last line is located around the Tsarska Okhota restaurant.

So, the presence of Russian forces on the streets of the town forced many analysts to conclude that Russians suddenly breached all these lines of defense and initiated urban fighting. Nonetheless, there was no footage of battle or convoys.

Instead, Russian sources continued publishing drone strikes on Ukrainian fortifications, implying that defenses were not breached.

A fighter from Avdiivka reported that the situation was stable, and the spotted groups of six to eight Russian soldiers were opportunistic sabotage groups, all of which were gradually hunted down.

Suddenly, the situation deteriorated significantly, and Ukrainian fighters in the Tsarska Okhota restaurant suffered an unexpected attack from behind.

As it turned out, Russians got lucky and discovered an old pipe that was once supposed to service the chemical plant or water filtration station, and found out that it reached the first streets of Avdiivka.

Russian sources later released a video about it, claiming that the pipe is two kilometers long and that they were using it for deploying troops.

That is why, at first, during the experimental stage, Russians only deployed small groups that Ukrainian soldiers dismissed as lucky sabotage groups.

And that is why later after the concept was proved, Russian forces reportedly sent a large assault group of 150 soldiers through the pipe into the Ukrainian rear.

In the aftermath of this big attack, Ukrainians were taken by surprise and forced out of their defense lines.

After the withdrawal, Ukrainians realized that the Russian garrison was relatively small and cut off from the mainland and started preparing for a counterattack.

In the meantime, Russian forces tried to assume as many houses in the residential area as possible while securing the pathway for friendly forces.

Understanding the weakness of the Russian position, Ukrainians were not afraid of using a lot of heavy equipment.

Combat footage shows that Ukrainians assaulted Russians with Bradley armored fighting vehicles.

Based on the geolocation, Ukrainians were operating near the bridge, implying that the main fortification of the Tsarska Okhota restaurant was retaken.

The fate of the other two lines of defense remained ambiguous, and both parties claimed control over them.

However, retaking the Tsarska Okhota restaurant was enough because, from here, Ukrainians managed to meet and completely demolish a Russian column that was supposed to reinforce Russians in the residential area.

Geolocated footage from Ukrainian drones shows the scattered remnants of the Russian column.

Simultaneously, Ukrainians assaulted the residential area. The operation here was much more difficult as it required clearing all houses.

Combat footage shows that Ukrainians were dropping heavy anti-tank mines from drones, as well as attacking Russians with tanks, reducing the occupied houses to ruins with high-explosive shells.

Complete eradication of the enemy was not achieved, so the region is constantly shelled.

Satellite footage reveals that these three streets have already turned to black ashes, but the fighting continues.

Overall, this was one of the most clever and well-conducted Russian operations.

However, the fact that Ukrainians took back the Tsarska Okhota restaurant undermined Russian plans by cutting off Russian reinforcements.

Russian analysts express deep concerns about the prospects of the bridgehead as the wedge in which Russian assault groups and detachments are operating is too narrow.

Russians can keep basic supplies of bullets, food, and fresh soldiers through the pipe but nothing more, as crawling for 2 kilometers is very difficult.

The best solution for Ukrainians is to find the old schemes of pipes in the region, find where they lead, drop several JDAM bombs on the facilities that Russians use to enter the pipe, and only then initiate the clearing operation.

Reporting From Ukraine will be on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2024

1. The Russian online community noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer any new information in his interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson and simply repeated longstanding Kremlin talking points about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for American audiences.

2. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev noted that Putin told the Western world in the most thorough and detailed way why Ukraine did not exist, does not exist, and will not exist.[6] Medvedev’s description of Putin’s interview further demonstrates that Russia has not abandoned its maximalist goals of eradicating Ukrainian statehood and that Putin does not intend to negotiate with Ukraine on any terms short of these goals.

3. Delays in Western aid appear to be exacerbating Ukraine’s current artillery shortages and could impact Ukraine’s long-term war effort ...

ISW continues to assess that the collapse of Western aid to Ukraine would likely lead to the eventual collapse of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and hold off the Russian military and could allow Russian forces to push all the way to western Ukraine closer to the borders of NATO member states.

4. Newly appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi identified several of his goals as commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Syrskyi stated that his primary agenda is to set clear and detailed plans for the Ukrainian command as well as to facilitate the quick distribution and delivery of necessary materiel to combat units deployed throughout the theater.

Syrskyi stated that he intends to balance between having Ukrainian forces conduct combat missions and building Ukraine’s combat power by restoring and training Ukrainian units

Syrskyi added that the introduction of new technical solutions and the implementation of lessons learned from successful modern combat experience, specifically with drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems, is a path towards Ukrainian victory, echoing themes from former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s recent focus on using technological innovation and adaptation to offset Russian forces‘ numerical advantages.

Syrskyi further discussed these goals at a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on February 9 in which the two discussed plans for improving logistics and the quality of training for Ukrainian forces in 2024.

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ Ukrainians Unleash RC Cars With Machine Guns to Storm Russian Positions ]

Day 719: Feb 12

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.

The most intense clashes are taking place on the northern flank.

First of all, Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack north of Bohdanivka and reestablished control over several important tree lines.

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that this area is located on a hill, making these positions tactically significant. From these tree lines, Ukrainians exert much higher control over the settlement that is located in the valley.

In the aftermath of this counterattack, Russian forces had to withdraw from the central part of the village. Shortly after that, a Russian “Storm-Z” instructor stated that the settlement is not tactically significant for Russian efforts anyway, since the village is located in a lowland and is vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery fire.

Several Ukrainian fighters reported that based on the intercepted radio talks, Russians want to enter Chasiv Yar before the March.

It seems like most Russian deadlines for achieving military objectives coincide with the elections that will take place in March.

Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesman reported that the Russian military command is transferring reserves to this direction in an effort to break through Ukrainian defensive lines in front of Chasiv Yar.

Following the resumption of the offensive effort, new Russian reinforcements started launching attacks along the highway. The goal of these forces was to establish control over the cemetery and the small forest behind it, which are located on the edge of the highlands.

Russians understand that without establishing a foothold on the elevated platforms, the prospects of reaching Chasiv Yar are nonexistent. Russians concentrated their artillery fire and started launching one attack after another, regardless of the losses.

In the meantime, Russian drone operators focused on thwarting Ukrainian rotation. Unfortunately, Ukrainians did not manage to adjust to such a sudden concentrated push and withdrew from what was left of these positions.

Russian sources posted combat footage showing how Ukrainians were leaving their positions. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces are about two point three kilometers from the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.

In order to capitalize on their success, Russian forces started deploying heavy equipment. The spokesman for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the region stated that Russian forces recently began conducting mechanized assaults, which is a departure from the previous pure infantry assaults.

Ukrainian fighters from the twenty-sixth artillery brigade posted a video showing how they are hunting down Russian armored vehicles in Berkhivka.

It seems like by that time, Ukrainian forces adjusted and even started responding with aviation. Footage released by Ukrainian fighters shows how Ukrainians are firing from helicopters.

The freshest updates indicate that Ukrainians repelled a major Russian mechanized assault. Ukrainians successfully hit the first vehicle in the column, immobilizing the rest of the vehicles, and opened fire.

Based on the video, half of the assault unit survived and retreated. Russian analysts stated that even though the situation for Ukrainians is very difficult, Ukrainians are still exerting high control over the region because they are located on the highlands, while Russians have to fight uphill.

Another small-scale but very interesting development happened a bit to the north. Here, Ukrainians conducted the first in history assault with radio-controlled ground drones with machine guns.

The footage is relatively old because Ukrainians did not want to post it immediately.

Ukrainian fighters from the 5th Assault Brigade advanced toward a Russian strong point on the side of the road and opened fire at it. The new models of these drones are smaller and more mobile.

Development of drone technology is deemed to be instrumental in achieving success and breaching the Russian defense in the future because these vehicles are very fast, do not trigger anti-tank mines, while being robust enough to withstand anti-personnel mines, and can overwhelm any strongpoint with fire.

In order to minimize territory losses to Russian offensives, while Ukrainians are developing drone technologies and organizing efficient and fast production, they are building robust defense lines.

Ukrainians took lessons from Russians and started building hundreds of kilometers of defenses along the entire contact line. The most heavily fortified area is actually the Bakhmut direction.

Here, Ukrainians have five defense lines, and in the new strategic update that I released yesterday, I analyzed where Ukrainians think the next major Russian offensive will take place, how their defenses aim to stop it, and, in some cases, how they force Russians into death zones.