Posted on 12/28/2023 8:04:09 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Alarm! With rampant inflation, The Federal Reserve has raised rates to tame inflation. And with the rate increases, US pending home sales have fallen -5% since last year.
With new home sales plummeting (playing catch-down to reality) and existing home sales bouncing very modestly off record lows (SAAR), pending home sales were expected to rise modestly MoM in November (+0.9%). However, Pending Home Sales missed expectations, unchanged in November (from an upwardly revised October decline of -1.2% MoM).
That left Pending Home Sales Index still down over 5% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
That leaves the Pending Home Sales Index at a new record low…
Source: Bloomberg
The index of contract signings for existing homes declined in the South, the biggest US housing market, to the lowest level on record.
Pending sales climbed in the other three regions.
The trend in pending home sales appears to tracking mortgage rates (with about a one-month lag), suggesting things may be about to pick up more solidly in the next few months…
Source: Bloomberg
“Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“With mortgage rates falling further in December – leading to savings of around $300 per month from the recent cyclical peak in rates – home sales will improve in 2024,” Yun said.
Optimism – from a realtor – whoever would have thought!?
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Only because my area is completely sold out. There’s hardly anything on the market.
“There’s hardly anything on the market.”
You can sell your house and make a nice profit. Then where do you live? In a tent in San Francisco?

There is an incredible disparity in housing prices by area and states.
Most folks in Southern California could sell their crappy old fixer-upper on a postage stamp lot and buy a modern mansion in West Virginia or several other states in flyover country.
I don’t live in San Francisco, but thanks for your concern.
The illiteracy and innumeracy of the journista class never fails to amaze me. Being down -5% is a rise of 5%.
Apparently, even simple math is hard.
These people are idiots.
IT ALWAYS SLOWS DOWN BEFORE CHRISTMAS.
Thanksgiving to the first of the New Year is a dead zone.
Idiots.
Joe will get credit for the natural annual increase in the spring.
“President Biden has orchestrated a reviving housing market!”
Texas has had an invasion of Californians over the past decade causing prices to skyrocket. Homes that once sold for in the lower 100K are now selling in the millions.
With all the new BIG name corporations like Apple and such moving in, there is a housing shortage even with construction going faster than ever. During the lockdowns, we’d never seen such building and could barely drive through the neighborhood for all the trucks.
The drop in sales is good news so maybe prices will come down a wee tiny bit.
Same here in Idaho. Also rent is now double in 3 years......or more.
(Also rent is now double in 3 years......or more.)
Yikes 😳
Joe Biden and the Democrats are really making it hard on Americans.
Pending home sales are way down in my area, but asking prices are not. Consequently there is a record number of homes currently listed for sale with very few buyers.
Sellers don’t want to lower their asking prices because they won’t be able to afford a replacement home. Buyers don’t want to pay anything close to asking prices because they will not be able to afford mortgages at current rates.
Most people decide how much house they can afford to buy based on the monthly payments on a 30 year mortgage. By that mrasure, if you could afford to buy a $400K house when Brandon took office then you can only afford to buy a $250K house today.
If the Fed lowers interest rates next year to help Brandon get reelected then inflation will take off again. In 1979-80, the Fed increased mortgage rates all the way to 19% to break Himmy Carter’s inlation. The real estate market is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
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