The Coming Wave of Freshman Failure. High-school grade inflation and test-optional policies spell trouble for America’s colleges.

A columnist covering K-12 education, I come to you, dear reader, with a warning: There’s a coming wave of college-freshman failure that will stress the institutions and systems of our universities. Grade schools haven’t and likely won’t recover from pandemic-era learning losses, and so, ready or not, a poorly educated generation is soon to flood your campuses.

We’ve all read the statistics. Students lost out on months’ worth of education, obliterating two decades’ worth of academic improvements. What’s more, we’re experiencing something of a “long Covid” in education. According to the testing company NWEA, students aren’t just not catching up. Rather, due to chronic absenteeism, behavior challenges, staffing shortages, and a general ennui in K-12 schooling, they are actually backsliding.

This alone would pose a substantial problem for higher ed, but the obfuscation of admissions standards at colleges and universities only compounds the difficulty.

Consider GPAs. While a persistent problem for years, grade inflation has made even more headlines recently. In Los Angeles, where 73 percent of eleventh graders received an A, B, or C in math, only 19 percent actually met grade-level standards. According to the Los Angeles Times, the same disparity plays out across ages and subjects:

"Grade schools haven’t and likely won’t recover from pandemic-era learning losses, and so, ready or not, a poorly educated generation is soon to flood your campuses."

Really? The schools closed down for "months," and those students can never catch up now? Many homeschoolers who never attended a single day of school for 12 years do well in college. Many of those who do well were self-taught.

If school kids aren't doing well academically, the pandemic lockdowns and closures weren't the reason.

"At this point, over 80 percent of colleges no longer require the submission of standardized test scores for admission. Of course, universities (ostensibly) abandoned the use of these measures in an attempt to be understanding, fair, and equitable."

"Equity" was not the reason why colleges began dropping the SAT requirement 10 years ago. At the time, all kinds of people were complaining about the SAT, and the word "equitable" was not thrown around in the arguments I heard. I was paying close attention because I was a big believer in test scores as equalizers, so all my kids took that test. Other people hated that test. Truth be told, many smart students first go to community college and transfer later to universities where they do very well. No SAT scores are required from transfer students (with a few exceptions). The reason colleges require SAT scores from freshmen is the bragging rights. Colleges are ranked according to their freshman classes, and SAT scores are part of that ranking.

"When students complain about unfair grading practices or unmeetable expectations, will professors and institutions hold fast, or will they crumble and sink?"

Many professors (especially in mathematics) have no problem flunking students. Some students take courses (such as calculus) twice before they pass. Remember, in college, students drop and withdraw from courses when they're not doing well. Then, they take those courses again later.

IMHO, college education has gone downhill, but not for the reasons some people seem to believe.

The admissions process is irrelevant by the time the first midterm tests are administered. The grossly unqualified will be roadkill. A "normal" class at UCSD with well qualified students often generates a spread of 85 to 100 percent scores on exams. The unqualified outliers manage scores in the 60% range. There is nothing nice about the cut throat competition in an undergrad classroom. You make the grade or you don't. When there is excessive fallout, the blame goes right straight to bad admissions policies putting grossly under qualified students into a hotbed of capable, competitive students.

I recall at least 20 years ago a former Valedictorian of a Kentucky County HS went to college and flunked out. She sued her school for not preparing her. Probably with some truth.

That is where standardized tests like SAT and ACT provide a better reference for student capability. GPA and honors are "nice", but the context of the school matters. Getting a 4.0 GPA at MIT vs a community college is a very different level of academic rigor and competition. The same applies to high schools. You have no idea of the rigor of the curriculum that generates a high flying GPA.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.