ADP Jobs Added Disappoints, Leisure And Hospitality And Manufacturing Are Biggest Losers (It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Recession)

Confounded Interest ^ | 12/06/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

[Kaiser8408a]

Yes, its beginning to look a lot like a recession!

After ADP has printed lower than BLS for the last two months…

Source: Bloomberg

…expectations were for a small tick higher in November (from 113k to +130k), despite the ugly JOLTS print. However, ADP reported just 103k jobs added (and October revised down to 106k)…

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing saw the biggest job losses but Leisure and Hospitality lost jobs for the first time since Feb 2021…

ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson notes that:

“Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.”

Bidenomics…

Job-stayers saw a 5.6 percent pay increase in November, the slowest pace of gains since September 2021. Job-changers, too, saw slowing pay growth, posting pay gains of 8.3 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since June 2021. The premium for switching jobs is at its smallest in three years of data.

Is this the recessionary signals the STIRs market is banking on for 125bps of rate-cuts next year? Because stocks sure aren’t thinking recession.

You know things are really bad in the US when Time Magazine chooses singer and airhead Taylor Swift (aka, Ms Travis Kelce) as its person of the year.

[Kaiser8408a]

Taylor Swift is Time's Person of the Year, not anyone who stood up to Hamas or stood up to Biden, etc.

[Jim W N]

What are the words represented by the letters “ADP”?

[mrmeyer]

Automatic Data Processing.

[Vermont Lt]

All of a sudden those “openings” are evaporating. Anyone who has ever been involved in running a business knows that the first thing you do is cut jobs by eliminating open positions. We will see the JOLTS number start to struggle. Then we will roll into lay offs—probably after the end of the year.

We may not have a hard landing. But its gonna be a bumpy ride.

[Vermont Lt]

ADP is the largest payroll processor in the country. As the folks who actually print paychecks…they have a pretty good handle on what is going on. I like it because the government doesn’t mess with it.