Posted on 09/21/2023 12:17:08 PM PDT by davikkm
This crisis has unfolded by design, leading to significant shifts in market expectations and Fed policy.
In a recent development, the 10-Year Note Yield has surged to 4.45%, a level not seen since November 2007. Markets have adjusted rapidly to this change, with rate cuts no longer being priced in until September 2024. Just three months ago, the expectation was for four rate cuts by the end of 2023, but now the possibility of another rate hike by December is back on the table, and rate cuts are not expected for a year.
This shift indicates that the Fed is more hawkish than anticipated. They’ve held the benchmark rate within the 5.25-5.5% target range, with 12 officials foreseeing one more hike this year and 7 expecting it to remain on hold. Median rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have also changed, indicating a more aggressive stance.
The 10-year yields are hitting 16-year highs, potentially signaling concerns about inflation. Historically, the Fed’s policies have influenced markets mainly through their statements. However, over the past two years, a growing number of market participants have become skeptical of the Fed’s intentions, leading to a lack of confidence in their guidance. To bring inflation back under control, the Fed must regain the confidence of the markets, which is now a significant challenge.
“I also noticed a shift in my 401K value also, Bidens economy is not a very good one”
Inflation and/or high interest rates can murder stock prices. Smaller companies that need to borrow can be at risk of failing. Commodity based companies, like oil, can offer some protection.
“Central Banks (another form of central planning) never have the nation’s or the citizens’ best interests at heart. They are just another tool that’s used to transfer wealth from the many to the few.”
There is no advanced economy that lacks a central bank. It’s not “central planning”, it’s a necessary part of a banking system.
Commercial/retail banks have to have a lender of last resort or you risk a system collapse that detroys otherwise sound banks.
The Fed failed to fulfill this role in 1930-33 and one third of America’s banks collapsed, wiping out depositors and investors alike, hurling the country into the Great Depression.
When there’s too much money there isn’t enough of it.
Your analysis is incorrect or my post. Did you not see what I emphasized? He correctly stated that the FED would make a mistake in a different way and that they have incorrectly understood their job. That is what is happening now.
Inflation is the cruelest of taxes.
“Inflation and/or high interest rates can murder stock prices. Smaller companies that need to borrow can be at risk of failing.”
Correct—almost all financial advisors have the elderly heavily in the stock market to “fight inflation”—and they have it exactly wrong.
Financial advisors are hazardous to your financial health.
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