RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 26, 2023

The Institute for the Study of War ^ | June 26, 2023 | Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

[Timber Rattler]

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the Russian military and continue fighting against Ukraine and to cause individuals most loyal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to self-identify. Putin continued to denounce the organizers of the armed rebellion as traitors. Putin thanked Russian society and the Russian security forces for defending Russia’s sovereignty and expressed gratitude to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for brokering negotiations with the perpetrators of the rebellion. Putin did not name Prigozhin specifically, but Putin’s speech leaves little room for any rapprochement with Prigozhin.

Putin stated that Russia’s true enemy is Ukraine and distinguished between the Wagner Group fighters and the armed rebellion’s organizers, presumably Prigozhin and Prigozhin loyalists, and offered Wagner Group fighters three choices. Putin gave the Wagner Group commanders and fighters space to distance themselves from Prigozhin’s armed rebellion, stating that “we know that the overwhelming majority of Wagner Group fighters and commanders are also Russian patriots, devoted to their people and state.” Putin stated that Wagner fighters who seek to continue “serving Russia” can sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) or other Russian security services, retire and go home, or go to Belarus (presumably to be with Prigozhin). Putin praised the work of Wagner Group commanders likely in an effort to retain them as the Wagner Group integrates into the MoD. The MoD’s ability to retain as many of Wagner’s current commanders as possible during the integration and subordination process is likely critical to maintaining the Wagner Group’s combat effectiveness and morale.

The Kremlin indicated that Russia aims to retain Wagner forces in order to sustain its operations in Ukraine and other international engagements.

[Timber Rattler]

Comrade Putin sounds worried. Good luck getting mercenaries and convicts to join the Russian Army.

[dforest]

Why don’t you post some articles about Ukraine and the strength of the Uke military and strategies you support.

You Zeepers are weak and transparent as plastic wrap.

Putin lives in your heads 24/7.

How about a Ukraine assessment?

[JonPreston]

10,000 Ukrainian killed/wounded since the non-counteroffensive

[blitz128]

Imagine hitler pardoning Valkyrie participants,
there was an attempted coup by their words or at very least armed insurrection/mutiny. Where Russian soldiers and equipment were lost. And putins response ,
meh

Very weak, and Russian military response even weaker

[hardspunned]

I know you pay no any attention to Orban. Your media masters have him way down on the dangerous nationalist maniac list just above Trump.

“If this could happen, it’s a clear sign of weakness. But if it happened in 24 hours, it’s a sign of strength... You know, Putin is the president of Russia. So if anyone suggests that he might fail or that he might be replaced, then he does not understand the Russian people and Russian power structures,” Orbán said.

He added that in Russia, everything functions differently than in European countries. According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, Putin will remain president in 2024.

“Russia does not work the way we do. The structures in Russia are very stable. They are based on the army, special services, and police, so it is a different country, it is a military-oriented country,” the head of the Hungarian government said.

According to Orbán, Prigozhin’s trip to Moscow will have no effect on the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

“I think that everything is over, and the war continues. This is not an event that will lead us to peace, because I always look at this war from the point of view of peace, because I think that the most important thing is to achieve a cease-fire and somehow to agree to peace. This event will not play any role in that,” Orbán said.

[Right_Wing_Madman]

"Neocons in Ukraine" is like watching old Road Runner cartoons. I look forward to your next foolproof plan, Wile E.

[adorno]

Zeepers are weak and transparent as plastic wrap.

Why don't you tell us about how Putin is honorable and decent and only wishing peace and tranquility and about how his invasion of Ukraine is intended to save the people of Ukraine?

Tell us about Putin's love of western values and how the Russian soldier are peace-keepers and only kill women and children to save their souls and send them to heaven for a better life. After all, life here on Earth is hell and we're all better off dead, and Putin is willing to help.

[BroJoeK]

dforest: "Why don’t you post some articles about Ukraine and the strength of the Uke military and strategies you support.
You Zeepers are weak and transparent as plastic wrap."

So far, Ukrainians have liberated about half the total Ukrainian land occupied by Russians in March 2022.
Their most recent counter-offensive, starting in early June 2023, is said to have liberated another 50 square miles, though some reports suggest a much higher number still being contested, not yet classified as "liberated".

Other reports are suggesting the US government has urged Ukrainians not to take advantage of Russia's internal political turmoil.
This seems very counterintuitive, but we must remember 1) Ukraine does not take orders from Washington and 2) all Washington was really saying is: stick to you plan, don't throw it away in favor of chasing some illusionary Russian political turmoil.

A final point: Ukraine's military is said to now total nearly a million men & women.
Of those not already on the front lines, it's said Ukraine has organized, equipped and trained about 12 new combat brigades.
Of those, only three are so far committed to the new counteroffensive. The rest are held in reserve, to be used when needed.

[delta7]

Not worried at all. Wagner group are legends in Russia. They still have many “ warriors “ signing up for this “ Legendary group “, many experienced ex Russian Army soldiers…..much like the storied French Foreign Legion.

Notice acknowledgement Wagner is used in many other countries ( Syria, Africa, etc), they are indispensable ( like the US contractors in Iraq, Afghanistan ) to Vlad’s foreign policy.

My bet- follow what the US did with Blackwater, Dyncorp, etc….” Disband” by phony news campaign ( or as here, move headquarters out of country to Belarus- see if Wagner moves HQ out of St Petersburg), then rename the new company, go deeper into the Black Ops scene, based far away from the prying Russian population.

Wagner will still give the Western military heads huge headaches in the future.

Much speculation they will be moved into Belarus to keep Poland from doing anything stupid….in fact, recent Belarus news states they are building a huge Wagner compound ( three dispersed housing/ training bases) just outside of Minsk…..these bases started construction a few months ago- which screams this whole mutiny thingy was staged, pre- planned….the West outplayed again?

[BroJoeK]

"10,000 Ukrainian killed/wounded since the non-counteroffensive"

According to Russians.

Ukrainian results may differ.

[BroJoeK]

delta: "Much speculation they will be moved into Belarus to keep Poland from doing anything stupid….in fact, recent Belarus news states they are building a huge Wagner compound ( three dispersed housing/ training bases) just outside of Minsk…..these bases started construction a few months ago- which screams this whole mutiny thingy was staged, pre- planned….the West outplayed again?"

I've seen no evidence "the West" was in any way involved or "played".
What seems to be the net result of everything is that Wagner will end up with a chokehold on the Belarus capital, Minsk.
This could make Yevgeny Prigozhin a serious national power in Belarus, presumably still loyal to Putin, powerful enough to prevent any thoughts of independence from Russia manifesting in Belarus.

Perhaps powerful enough to launch another diversionary attack on Kiev.

[caww]

.....the West outplayed again?

An argument certainly can be made that's so. On thing commonly stated now is this defiantly is not the way Putin would normally handle an insurrection against him or his country......