Posted on 05/10/2023 8:36:34 AM PDT by LS
Hi all, Haven't posted much here because of my substack but some events in the last few days shouted out "FreeRepublic!"
1) The Trump/RDS "race." There is no race. This was over before it began. My estimate is that RDS will get Kasich (the Mailman) level delegates, if that. I think with him at the latest poll at 17% vs. Trump, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 5%, RDS is closer to Vivek than he is to Trump, and I won't be surprised if Vivek doesn't push him hard. (Bannon thinks Vivek has topped, RDS settles at 15%. I think Vivek can get above 10%, and that RDS can drop to about 10%).
*The money. Yes, RDS has a ton of money. So does Tim Scott--btw, did it bother any of you that the minority head of the banking committee in the Senate is getting oodles of cash from the Wall Street banks? Shocking! At any rate, the battlefield of American politics is littered with the bodies of candidates who were awash in money: Steve Forbes, Phil Gramm, Hillary Clinton (Cankles).
*More concerning is that RDS or McClintock in PA who raised tons of cash don't GIVE THAT TO OTHER RACES to "advance the GOP." Heck no. And this is precisely why Larry Elder, Nick Knack Haley, and other absolute no names "run" for president. They don't have any intention of winning, or even competing. They have every intention of raising tons of cash they can travel the country on, network, have nice dinners . . . hey, almost like a televangelist!
*On the general election RDS/Rutabaga vs Trump/Rutabaga matchup polls, these are analgland gibberish. Let's start with some very basic sources on "Who are Trump voters?" There are two great books, not to mention Baris's ongoing polls: "The Great Revolt" by Salena Zito (who got PA in 2016 right and who has been extremely accurate about PA's voters) and "Bellwether Blues" by Jon Jacubowski, about Ohio's swing voters. "Great Revolt" conducted a massive poll of Trump voters, then engaged in extensive lower-tier interviews with hundreds. "Bellwether Blues" did the same on a much smaller level. Both found the same thing, which is backed up repeatedly by Baris and by midterm performance:
There is a large swath of voters who voted in 2016 and 2020 for Trump who hate both parties. Prior to 2016, they never voted before (many). They are NOT "swing" voters---i.e., vote D one year, R the next. They are TRUMP voters only. I did the math on this based on Baris's estimate of the % and they come to between 10=12m of the 2020 electorate. These are referred to as the UNDERVOTE. Repeatedly in mid-terms, even when Trump has endorsed a candidate, they perform behind Trump. A key example is J.D. Vance in OH, who won, but came in a few points behind Trump's 2020 levels. More recently, Ron Johnson barely eked by while Dan Kelly lost, all because Trump was not on the ticket. These people will not come out for "conseratives" or "Republicans." They only come out for Trump. (Lake, for example underperformed Trump in both Maricopa and Pima Co.)
*So, the question becomes, where does RDS get back these voters in a general election? Where does he "make up" 10m Trump voters who stay home? And it ain't the suburbs. Baris's polling shows that working class white women prefer Trump, that Trump gets 27% of the black vote, that he gets more of the Hispanic vote than RDS. Where RDS consistently leads is with COLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE MEN. Not surprisingly, this group is the most loyal pro-abortion vote. In short, RDS would in 2024 come in somewhere around 68-70m (I think Trump will get over 80m).
*So, the next issue is cheating. Again, RDS has no shot. If they cheated Trump in 2020 (I believe they did, but that's not relevant), the question is simple for RDS: what have you, or the RNC, done in any way to prevent the cheat in 2024? If the answer is nothing (correct) RDS would lose by an even bigger margin than Trump did/would.
*In short, there is no argument for RDS (or any other R) that can address the UNDERVOTE or the CHEAT.
*Now, Newsom on reparations. Not surprising he would veto this. He wants to be Pres, and no one who has voted for/supported reparations will ever be pres. That's a bridge too far for most white voters.
*Illegals: in the short term the ONLY course of action is to re-ship them immediately to blue cities and burbs. Keep the busses rollin'. I know, I know, this doesn't address the criminality of the whole thing, but we aren't gonna do that with Rutabaga in office.
Here's the longer-term problem: Rs/Trump need to start now prepping the public for mass deportations. This will be a firestorm among the Hoax News media and DemoKKKRats will squeal, but by 2024, this may indeed not only be possible but popular---but it begins immediately by letting the public know this is coming. Don't know if even Trump has the backbone for this, and if he does, he will immediately be attacked as uncaring, blah, blah, blah.
And that's today's good news.
I am all in for Trump. Even though my tagline might indicate otherwise.
But what if the swamp rats get Trump? What if Trump and his big ego and bigger mouth gets Trump himself?
It would be a stupid mistake to place all our hopes and dreams on Trump. If we take RDS out of the picture and we do have to go with some Plan B, then what?
I’ll tell you what. We are left with Nikki, Christie, Hutchinson. Even Pence.
If the Swamp “gets” Trump, we’re finished.
There is no way you get those extra 10-12m.
Trump’s REPUBLICAN/INDY support in 2020 was just 64m.
Apathy, simply don't care, want to be left alone, discouraged by the systemic cheat, etc.
Approximately 50% of the current population, which is a whole lot of people.
Whoever taps into that pool takes it going away.
Passion, honesty, and a willingness to actually fight instead of going along with the current occupants (both sides) gets their attention.
If they don’t find a way to stop the cheating, any of the GOP candidates will go down, lose to either the vegetable or that twit Newsom. Trump would be the strongest of them all, and the immigration issue is what he won on back in 2016.
Thanks Larry.
Yes this. Plan B isn't viable.
Correct.
We won’t stop all of the cheating. We just need to stop enough to win the EC. That involves perhaps curbing just 10%.
👍😁👍
Also, what are you thoughts about a left-leaning populist candidate like Robert Kennedy, Jr. taking the Democrat nomination?
As they are now doing at the border.
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