Posted on 02/13/2023 6:32:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
9 more tank losses! I still think tank losses are a good proxy for how this war is going. RuZZia’s new offensive is a smashing failure.
Vuhledar, again.
“Two Russian T-80BV tanks were taken out of action by Ukrainian AT mines in quick succession in the vicinity of Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast.”:
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1624916164915736577
“A Russian T-72B tank was disabled by Ukrainian anti-tank mines during an attempted attack in the vicinity of Svatove, #Luhansk Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1625086988779937792
“The Ukrainian 44th Artillery Brigade destroyed a Russian BMP IFV, 2A65 Msta-B 152mm howitzer, and 2A36 Giatsint-B 152mm field gun in #Zaporizhzhia Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1625083296387325954
“Colonel Vitaly Sukuev, the commander of the VDV’s 108th Air Assault Regiment, was killed in Ukraine. https://vk.com/wall-177197390_25920…”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577403797114011648
“Video showing four Russian tanks, including two damaged T-80BV, and a damaged BMP-3. It looks like they struck mines. Not fully clear the status of the other two tanks, but they were likely damaged/abandoned as well.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1625047839448375296
“Video of improvised loitering munition strikes by Ukraine’s 35th Marine Brigade on a Russian tank and troops.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1625081612416196608
“Alexander Khodakovsky says Ukraine struck the DNR Vostok unit’s headquarters. He says that destroying a battalion command post is a greater problem than losing an army CP, because battalion CP’s gather and analyze information that higher CP’s rely on.”
“HIMARS flew to the headquarters of the “Vostok” battalion, among the “200” officers of the Russian Federation”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1625052237755039744
“A shell fired from an AHS Krab howitzer exploded far from the Wagner HVC and the Russian soldiers calmed down, thinking it was not for them, but suddenly the kamikaze drones swooped”
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1624863118819045376
The marines are dying, right now.
“A man that looks like Putin strangely declares that the Pacific and North Fleets marines are “fighting heroically, right now”. The same marines that drive over each other on BMPs and run around aflame near Vuhledar. Is this person aware at all of what’s going on in the war?”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624895649714958339
“Quadcopter of Ukraine’s 92nd brigade destroyed a Russian tank The drone itself was reportedly lost to this attack by the tank’s ammo detonation.”
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1624936894881472512
“Pakistan to send military aid to Ukraine including 10,000 Grad rounds writes Economic Times. It will arrive in Ukraine through the German port of Emden with subsequent transit through Poland.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1624899821042540546
“Azerbaijan troops have joined Ukraine in capturing Wagnerites with their pants down.”
https://twitter.com/moscow_english/status/1624877886367727619
Droned
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1624865734814842882
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1625048566728105985
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1625075915620319232
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 12, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> F-16 Shoots Down “Octagonal Object” Over Lake Huron (Updated) <——
For the third time in three days, an unknown object has been shot down, a U.S. Rep. from Michigan said Sunday.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/fighters-shoot-down-object-over-lake-huron
Excerpts:
[Object described as an octagon with strings hanging down from it, no visible means of propulsion or way it stayed in the air]
a pair of 148th Fighter Wing “Bulldogs” F-16C/Ds launched out of Madison, Wisconsin ... the object was ‘octagonal’ and was shot down by F-16s using an AIM-9X missile at around 20,000 feet.
More info coming out now that the octagonal object had strings hanging from it but no payload on them as reported by CNN ... It’s worth mentioning that there is building high-fidelity visual intelligence that has been collected on these objects.
The F-16s would carry targeting pods on alert - in the case of the 148th, the highly capable Sniper ATP - as is now customary. The low altitude, daytime intercept would have allowed them to collect high-quality IR/EO video of the entirety of the object before shooting it down. This is in addition to handheld cameras.
The object likely landed in Canadian waters. It was likely the same object detected over Montana, but that F-15s could not find once they arrived on scene. They don’t know exactly what these objects are, but they made enhancements to radars out of abundance of caution and at the direction by President Biden. They are trying to understand the purpose and nature of these smaller unidentified objects.
-They are small and produce a very radar low radar cross-section, going at speed of the wind. It is a challenging to gain descriptions of them due to speed of fighters [strange statement as the fighters carry advanced targeting pods].
Radars filter out information based on clutter, such as low-speed clutter. They have adjusted some of those filter ‘gates’ including velocity and altitude gates to see what was out there after the Chinese balloon incident. This was paired with a heightened alert to look for these types of targets. First time NORAD has taken kinetic action against an airborne object in American airspace.
-They won’t officially categorize them as balloons or as having some type of a propulsion system, although there could be a gaseous envelope inside. They don’t know what country they are coming from. When asked about aliens, said they just won’t rule anything out at this point.
They have scrambled fighters on tracks they cannot correlate with what those fighters see once on station. They cannot attribute some of them over the years. They may look back at overlooked incidents now that their posture has changed.
They are still searching for object that was taken off Alaska’s north coast. A Navy P-8 and helicopters are looking, but they do not have it now. They had extra intelligence that the large balloon taken down off South Carolina was from China.
-Getting a radar track on these smaller objects is very hard. An AIM-120 would be lower probability of success against them. Looked at using gun shots yesterday and today, but size of the target was an issue, as was altitude for the one from yesterday.
They could get so close to object you could fly into the debris or hit it. AIM-9X has been weapon of choice. Contrast between the target and sky above allows for AIM-9X to work well for this mission
Won’t talk about if they have interfered with sensors ... Shape could make them hard to detect. Need to ‘get their hands on one’ to see if that’s the case. Would not elaborate on shapes they are seeing.
-As to why did it take so long to re-calibrate radars when the Chinese balloon program was briefed by intel last August? They say the timing in the intel after the Chinese balloon incident pushed this to occur, before then they didn’t see a need then. The PRC balloon was different because it transited the continental US.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 354.
Today the biggest news is coming from Bakhmut.
Here, the Russians carried out a successful attack that threatened one Ukrainian group to be completely cut off from the mainland.
Fortunately, this was not unexpected, and the Ukrainians withdrew, leaving the Russians a couple of deadly surprises.
When it comes to the northern part of Bakhmut, the situation became very dynamic.
As you remember, over the course of the last several weeks, I have been telling you that the Ukrainians in Krasna Hora continued holding their positions despite being one step away from operational encirclement.
I also told you that the moment the Russians achieve any success in the northern part of Paraskoviivka, the Ukrainians in Krasna Hora would immediately withdraw. And this is exactly what happened today.
The reason why the Russians suddenly were able to penetrate defenses in the northern part of Paraskoviivka is simple.
Last time I told you that the Russians had conducted a massive attack on Ukrainian positions on the hills, which despite high losses, was successful.
This gave them access to the local heights and also the ravine west of Paraskoviivka.
So, the Russians attacked them from the west, stretched Ukrainian troops, entered the northern part of the village, and forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from Krasna Hora.
The Ukrainians were ready for such development for weeks, so they prepared a plan for how to make the best of the bad lot.
Due to heavy fights, only a few buildings are suitable for establishing their positions, and the Ukrainians obviously knew which those buildings are.
A serviceman shared footage where he showed how they tracked Russian platoons using a thermal camera and then how Ukrainian artillery delivered a direct hit according to the coordinates.
When it comes to Bakhmut itself, the front line is shifting closer and closer to the river that goes right through the center of Bakhmut.
Today’s combat footage showed that the main Ukrainian positions right now are in the high-rise buildings.
These positions allow the Ukrainians to continue safely withdrawing.
When it comes to the southern part of Bakhmut, recent footage showed that the bridge over the canal had been blown up.
Some sources suggested that it was the Russians who blew up the bridge because they wanted to completely stop any movement on this highway, while other sources said that it was the Ukrainians who blew up the bridge to slow down Russian advances, prevent them from freely moving from one bank to another, and set conditions for a total withdrawal from Bakhmut.
It looks like the second explanation is more plausible, especially because today, a Ukrainian commander from Bakhmut made an announcement that from tomorrow they will restrict access to Bakhmut for civilians and volunteers.
This is good news because it means that the Ukrainians will precipitate their withdrawal. So far, it looks like the withdrawal is too slow, but it is part of the plan.
If the Ukrainians leave the eastern side too early, before the conditions are set for a complete withdrawal, the Russians will get closer and get ready for crossing the river and chasing the Ukrainians down.
However, if the Ukrainians leave the eastern side when everything is set for withdrawal, then the Russians will not be able to force the river and push, allowing the Ukrainians to use this time to withdraw.
Other news is coming from the northern part of the Luhansk region. Here the Russians have finally taken the village of Dvorichne and which caused the fights to shift to the neighboring village.
Right now, Hrianykivka is being stormed from at least two sides and the Russians reportedly entered the northeastern outskirts.
Russian sources report that they have also established control over several important positions near Lyman Pershyi and Synkivka.
A lot of sources are saying that the Russian offensive operation has started, however, right now, the units that engage in fights are still mostly the same units that have been on the ground.
Some analysts are saying that it is premature to call it an offensive operation until both sides engage their reserves that they have been preparing for this battle of strategic significance.
So far, both parties are keeping their reserves untouched, so we are yet to see the main developments unfold in this region.
“tank losses are a good proxy for how this war is going”
February has already exceeded January.
I guess that the charge of the mobniks will continue bleeding away Russian tank (also Aviation and Artillery) assets at an accelerated rate, until the start of the Spring mud season. The sickening rate of Russian Infantry losses may well continue through the mud.
After the mud, multiple Russian crises should be cracking in new and more serious ways; in their combat capabilities, finances and economy. When the Ukrainian counter attack occurs after the mud season, there will likely be another big harvest of Russian armor, after which, they will likely enter phases of the war where they no longer have a deep bench of replacement combat platforms to draw on for replacements. They will have to increasingly rely on lower tech weapons, while the Ukrainians continue upgunning to NATO weapons.
2023 looks like a much, much worse year for Russia than 2022.
“So far, both parties are keeping their reserves untouched, so we are yet to see the main developments unfold in this region.”
High intensity warfare for the coming weeks - a major stress test for the Ukrainian forces. May God bless them.
Has Saudi Arabia’s Relationship With Russia Reached Its Limits?
(https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Has-Saudi-Arabias-Relationship-With-Russia-Reached-Its-Limits.html By Simon Watkins - Feb 06, 2023)
This article argues that Brent (European) oil prices are now within Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven point for this year ($78, down a few dollars from last year, as the Saudi budget recovers from their 2014-2016 price war against American shale oil),but it is way below Russia’s current fiscal breakeven (around $114, up from $62 before this invasion of the Ukraine). Although the current Russian budget assumed a planning factor of $70 for Brent, that budget was planned as a wartime deficit spending budget, far from in balance. Russia is selling assets and printing rubles to cover its deficits, as it is now highly restricted from borrowing.
The author says that the American preferred range for Brent is $40-$80. In the USA, the concern over oil prices is more centered on its general economic impact, than on direct Government revenues. The Saudi and Russian budgets sink or swim on the price of oil.
Although Chinese demand is expected to recover as their massive COVID wave subsides with herd immunity and the end of cold & flu (&COVID) season, the author expects a 5-8% growth in Chinese oil import demand - likely not enough to significantly affect prices.
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