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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 12, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].

-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/

-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk

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Extra:
-—> F-16 Shoots Down “Octagonal Object” Over Lake Huron (Updated) <——
For the third time in three days, an unknown object has been shot down, a U.S. Rep. from Michigan said Sunday.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/fighters-shoot-down-object-over-lake-huron

Excerpts:
[Object described as an octagon with strings hanging down from it, no visible means of propulsion or way it stayed in the air]

a pair of 148th Fighter Wing “Bulldogs” F-16C/Ds launched out of Madison, Wisconsin ... the object was ‘octagonal’ and was shot down by F-16s using an AIM-9X missile at around 20,000 feet.

More info coming out now that the octagonal object had strings hanging from it but no payload on them as reported by CNN ... It’s worth mentioning that there is building high-fidelity visual intelligence that has been collected on these objects.

The F-16s would carry targeting pods on alert - in the case of the 148th, the highly capable Sniper ATP - as is now customary. The low altitude, daytime intercept would have allowed them to collect high-quality IR/EO video of the entirety of the object before shooting it down. This is in addition to handheld cameras.

The object likely landed in Canadian waters. It was likely the same object detected over Montana, but that F-15s could not find once they arrived on scene. They don’t know exactly what these objects are, but they made enhancements to radars out of abundance of caution and at the direction by President Biden. They are trying to understand the purpose and nature of these smaller unidentified objects.

-They are small and produce a very radar low radar cross-section, going at speed of the wind. It is a challenging to gain descriptions of them due to speed of fighters [strange statement as the fighters carry advanced targeting pods].

Radars filter out information based on clutter, such as low-speed clutter. They have adjusted some of those filter ‘gates’ including velocity and altitude gates to see what was out there after the Chinese balloon incident. This was paired with a heightened alert to look for these types of targets. First time NORAD has taken kinetic action against an airborne object in American airspace.

-They won’t officially categorize them as balloons or as having some type of a propulsion system, although there could be a gaseous envelope inside. They don’t know what country they are coming from. When asked about aliens, said they just won’t rule anything out at this point.

They have scrambled fighters on tracks they cannot correlate with what those fighters see once on station. They cannot attribute some of them over the years. They may look back at overlooked incidents now that their posture has changed.

They are still searching for object that was taken off Alaska’s north coast. A Navy P-8 and helicopters are looking, but they do not have it now. They had extra intelligence that the large balloon taken down off South Carolina was from China.

-Getting a radar track on these smaller objects is very hard. An AIM-120 would be lower probability of success against them. Looked at using gun shots yesterday and today, but size of the target was an issue, as was altitude for the one from yesterday.

They could get so close to object you could fly into the debris or hit it. AIM-9X has been weapon of choice. Contrast between the target and sky above allows for AIM-9X to work well for this mission

Won’t talk about if they have interfered with sensors ... Shape could make them hard to detect. Need to ‘get their hands on one’ to see if that’s the case. Would not elaborate on shapes they are seeing.

-As to why did it take so long to re-calibrate radars when the Chinese balloon program was briefed by intel last August? They say the timing in the intel after the Chinese balloon incident pushed this to occur, before then they didn’t see a need then. The PRC balloon was different because it transited the continental US.

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••Day 354.

Today the biggest news is coming from Bakhmut.

Here, the Russians carried out a successful attack that threatened one Ukrainian group to be completely cut off from the mainland.

Fortunately, this was not unexpected, and the Ukrainians withdrew, leaving the Russians a couple of deadly surprises.

When it comes to the northern part of Bakhmut, the situation became very dynamic.

As you remember, over the course of the last several weeks, I have been telling you that the Ukrainians in Krasna Hora continued holding their positions despite being one step away from operational encirclement.

I also told you that the moment the Russians achieve any success in the northern part of Paraskoviivka, the Ukrainians in Krasna Hora would immediately withdraw. And this is exactly what happened today.

The reason why the Russians suddenly were able to penetrate defenses in the northern part of Paraskoviivka is simple.

Last time I told you that the Russians had conducted a massive attack on Ukrainian positions on the hills, which despite high losses, was successful.

This gave them access to the local heights and also the ravine west of Paraskoviivka.

So, the Russians attacked them from the west, stretched Ukrainian troops, entered the northern part of the village, and forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from Krasna Hora.

The Ukrainians were ready for such development for weeks, so they prepared a plan for how to make the best of the bad lot.

Due to heavy fights, only a few buildings are suitable for establishing their positions, and the Ukrainians obviously knew which those buildings are.

A serviceman shared footage where he showed how they tracked Russian platoons using a thermal camera and then how Ukrainian artillery delivered a direct hit according to the coordinates.

When it comes to Bakhmut itself, the front line is shifting closer and closer to the river that goes right through the center of Bakhmut.

Today’s combat footage showed that the main Ukrainian positions right now are in the high-rise buildings.

These positions allow the Ukrainians to continue safely withdrawing.

When it comes to the southern part of Bakhmut, recent footage showed that the bridge over the canal had been blown up.

Some sources suggested that it was the Russians who blew up the bridge because they wanted to completely stop any movement on this highway, while other sources said that it was the Ukrainians who blew up the bridge to slow down Russian advances, prevent them from freely moving from one bank to another, and set conditions for a total withdrawal from Bakhmut.

It looks like the second explanation is more plausible, especially because today, a Ukrainian commander from Bakhmut made an announcement that from tomorrow they will restrict access to Bakhmut for civilians and volunteers.

This is good news because it means that the Ukrainians will precipitate their withdrawal. So far, it looks like the withdrawal is too slow, but it is part of the plan.

If the Ukrainians leave the eastern side too early, before the conditions are set for a complete withdrawal, the Russians will get closer and get ready for crossing the river and chasing the Ukrainians down.

However, if the Ukrainians leave the eastern side when everything is set for withdrawal, then the Russians will not be able to force the river and push, allowing the Ukrainians to use this time to withdraw.

Other news is coming from the northern part of the Luhansk region. Here the Russians have finally taken the village of Dvorichne and which caused the fights to shift to the neighboring village.

Right now, Hrianykivka is being stormed from at least two sides and the Russians reportedly entered the northeastern outskirts.

Russian sources report that they have also established control over several important positions near Lyman Pershyi and Synkivka.

A lot of sources are saying that the Russian offensive operation has started, however, right now, the units that engage in fights are still mostly the same units that have been on the ground.

Some analysts are saying that it is premature to call it an offensive operation until both sides engage their reserves that they have been preparing for this battle of strategic significance.

So far, both parties are keeping their reserves untouched, so we are yet to see the main developments unfold in this region.