9 more tank losses! I still think tank losses are a good proxy for how this war is going. RuZZia’s new offensive is a smashing failure.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 12, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> F-16 Shoots Down “Octagonal Object” Over Lake Huron (Updated) <——
For the third time in three days, an unknown object has been shot down, a U.S. Rep. from Michigan said Sunday.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/fighters-shoot-down-object-over-lake-huron
Excerpts:
[Object described as an octagon with strings hanging down from it, no visible means of propulsion or way it stayed in the air]
a pair of 148th Fighter Wing “Bulldogs” F-16C/Ds launched out of Madison, Wisconsin ... the object was ‘octagonal’ and was shot down by F-16s using an AIM-9X missile at around 20,000 feet.
More info coming out now that the octagonal object had strings hanging from it but no payload on them as reported by CNN ... It’s worth mentioning that there is building high-fidelity visual intelligence that has been collected on these objects.
The F-16s would carry targeting pods on alert - in the case of the 148th, the highly capable Sniper ATP - as is now customary. The low altitude, daytime intercept would have allowed them to collect high-quality IR/EO video of the entirety of the object before shooting it down. This is in addition to handheld cameras.
The object likely landed in Canadian waters. It was likely the same object detected over Montana, but that F-15s could not find once they arrived on scene. They don’t know exactly what these objects are, but they made enhancements to radars out of abundance of caution and at the direction by President Biden. They are trying to understand the purpose and nature of these smaller unidentified objects.
-They are small and produce a very radar low radar cross-section, going at speed of the wind. It is a challenging to gain descriptions of them due to speed of fighters [strange statement as the fighters carry advanced targeting pods].
Radars filter out information based on clutter, such as low-speed clutter. They have adjusted some of those filter ‘gates’ including velocity and altitude gates to see what was out there after the Chinese balloon incident. This was paired with a heightened alert to look for these types of targets. First time NORAD has taken kinetic action against an airborne object in American airspace.
-They won’t officially categorize them as balloons or as having some type of a propulsion system, although there could be a gaseous envelope inside. They don’t know what country they are coming from. When asked about aliens, said they just won’t rule anything out at this point.
They have scrambled fighters on tracks they cannot correlate with what those fighters see once on station. They cannot attribute some of them over the years. They may look back at overlooked incidents now that their posture has changed.
They are still searching for object that was taken off Alaska’s north coast. A Navy P-8 and helicopters are looking, but they do not have it now. They had extra intelligence that the large balloon taken down off South Carolina was from China.
-Getting a radar track on these smaller objects is very hard. An AIM-120 would be lower probability of success against them. Looked at using gun shots yesterday and today, but size of the target was an issue, as was altitude for the one from yesterday.
They could get so close to object you could fly into the debris or hit it. AIM-9X has been weapon of choice. Contrast between the target and sky above allows for AIM-9X to work well for this mission
Won’t talk about if they have interfered with sensors ... Shape could make them hard to detect. Need to ‘get their hands on one’ to see if that’s the case. Would not elaborate on shapes they are seeing.
-As to why did it take so long to re-calibrate radars when the Chinese balloon program was briefed by intel last August? They say the timing in the intel after the Chinese balloon incident pushed this to occur, before then they didn’t see a need then. The PRC balloon was different because it transited the continental US.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 354.
Today the biggest news is coming from Bakhmut.
Here, the Russians carried out a successful attack that threatened one Ukrainian group to be completely cut off from the mainland.
Fortunately, this was not unexpected, and the Ukrainians withdrew, leaving the Russians a couple of deadly surprises.
When it comes to the northern part of Bakhmut, the situation became very dynamic.
As you remember, over the course of the last several weeks, I have been telling you that the Ukrainians in Krasna Hora continued holding their positions despite being one step away from operational encirclement.
I also told you that the moment the Russians achieve any success in the northern part of Paraskoviivka, the Ukrainians in Krasna Hora would immediately withdraw. And this is exactly what happened today.
The reason why the Russians suddenly were able to penetrate defenses in the northern part of Paraskoviivka is simple.
Last time I told you that the Russians had conducted a massive attack on Ukrainian positions on the hills, which despite high losses, was successful.
This gave them access to the local heights and also the ravine west of Paraskoviivka.
So, the Russians attacked them from the west, stretched Ukrainian troops, entered the northern part of the village, and forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from Krasna Hora.
The Ukrainians were ready for such development for weeks, so they prepared a plan for how to make the best of the bad lot.
Due to heavy fights, only a few buildings are suitable for establishing their positions, and the Ukrainians obviously knew which those buildings are.
A serviceman shared footage where he showed how they tracked Russian platoons using a thermal camera and then how Ukrainian artillery delivered a direct hit according to the coordinates.
When it comes to Bakhmut itself, the front line is shifting closer and closer to the river that goes right through the center of Bakhmut.
Today’s combat footage showed that the main Ukrainian positions right now are in the high-rise buildings.
These positions allow the Ukrainians to continue safely withdrawing.
When it comes to the southern part of Bakhmut, recent footage showed that the bridge over the canal had been blown up.
Some sources suggested that it was the Russians who blew up the bridge because they wanted to completely stop any movement on this highway, while other sources said that it was the Ukrainians who blew up the bridge to slow down Russian advances, prevent them from freely moving from one bank to another, and set conditions for a total withdrawal from Bakhmut.
It looks like the second explanation is more plausible, especially because today, a Ukrainian commander from Bakhmut made an announcement that from tomorrow they will restrict access to Bakhmut for civilians and volunteers.
This is good news because it means that the Ukrainians will precipitate their withdrawal. So far, it looks like the withdrawal is too slow, but it is part of the plan.
If the Ukrainians leave the eastern side too early, before the conditions are set for a complete withdrawal, the Russians will get closer and get ready for crossing the river and chasing the Ukrainians down.
However, if the Ukrainians leave the eastern side when everything is set for withdrawal, then the Russians will not be able to force the river and push, allowing the Ukrainians to use this time to withdraw.
Other news is coming from the northern part of the Luhansk region. Here the Russians have finally taken the village of Dvorichne and which caused the fights to shift to the neighboring village.
Right now, Hrianykivka is being stormed from at least two sides and the Russians reportedly entered the northeastern outskirts.
Russian sources report that they have also established control over several important positions near Lyman Pershyi and Synkivka.
A lot of sources are saying that the Russian offensive operation has started, however, right now, the units that engage in fights are still mostly the same units that have been on the ground.
Some analysts are saying that it is premature to call it an offensive operation until both sides engage their reserves that they have been preparing for this battle of strategic significance.
So far, both parties are keeping their reserves untouched, so we are yet to see the main developments unfold in this region.
Has Saudi Arabia’s Relationship With Russia Reached Its Limits?
(https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Has-Saudi-Arabias-Relationship-With-Russia-Reached-Its-Limits.html By Simon Watkins - Feb 06, 2023)
This article argues that Brent (European) oil prices are now within Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven point for this year ($78, down a few dollars from last year, as the Saudi budget recovers from their 2014-2016 price war against American shale oil),but it is way below Russia’s current fiscal breakeven (around $114, up from $62 before this invasion of the Ukraine). Although the current Russian budget assumed a planning factor of $70 for Brent, that budget was planned as a wartime deficit spending budget, far from in balance. Russia is selling assets and printing rubles to cover its deficits, as it is now highly restricted from borrowing.
The author says that the American preferred range for Brent is $40-$80. In the USA, the concern over oil prices is more centered on its general economic impact, than on direct Government revenues. The Saudi and Russian budgets sink or swim on the price of oil.
Although Chinese demand is expected to recover as their massive COVID wave subsides with herd immunity and the end of cold & flu (&COVID) season, the author expects a 5-8% growth in Chinese oil import demand - likely not enough to significantly affect prices.
Strategic missile barrage fail, GEN “Armageddon” Surovikin already replaced:
@IAPonomarenko Feb 12
I have no idea how they do this, but tomorrow it will be the second day in a row with no planned power cuts in Kyiv and the region.
At least that’s what our energy monopoly says. And it’s frosty now, and there was a massive missile attack just recently.
...The cold season is drawing to an end already. Neither Ukraine nor Europe is not even close to begging Putin for peace on their knees in the dark and cold.
@ChuckPfarrer 4h
LANE CLOSURES AHEAD: M|§F|T @am_misfit posts (a) time lapse, showing that repairs on the Kerch Straits Bridge are progressing. Spans have been replaced, and roadway surfaces are being put down. Watch for a ribbon cutting, followed by another UKR long range precision strike.
@ChuckPfarrer 5h
"VUHLEDAR AXIS /1345 UTC 13 FEB/ RU forces have advanced north of Grafske and enveloped the UKR salient between the T-05-09 HWY in the west and the O-0531 road in the east. Outflanked, UKR forces in Blahodatne and Volodymvrivka withdrew in an orderly manner."
@ChuckPfarrer 5h
"BAKHMUT AXIS /1320 UTC 13 FEB/ RU continues operations against the M-03/ T-05-13 JCT north of Bakhmut. Repeated claims that RU has captured Krasna Hora are false: UKR forces remain in contact within the urban center. Fighting continues along the H-32 HWY south of Chasiv Yar."
@WarMonitor3 3h
Kreminna area: Russian forces have launched several new assault attempts mainly towards heavily defended forested areas west of Kreminna heavy fighting continues. They also attempt to bypass positions from the north towards Nevske so far unsuccessfully.
@WarMonitor3 3h
North of Bakhmut Russian forces have made some more advances recently capturing a large production plant and now attempting to advance into Paraskoviivka. Heavy fighting continues to the east and north of Paraskoviivka.
@WarMonitor3 3h
Kupyansk area: Fighting intensity has increased significantly Russian forces have likely captured Dvorichne and are assaulting towards Hryanykivka. Other assault directions are being repelled effectively.
@WarMonitor3 1h
Russian forces are again setting up large military camps in Voronezh and Kursk regions, this was also seen before the renewed invasion last year.
Although there is large offensives taking place on the eastern frontline, It is also possible they open a new frontline in spring
Russian forces are (re)establishing large training camps in Russia.
@kromark 9h
Russian army recently established a new field camp near Voronezh, where they accumulated troops year ago prior to the invasion... new camp near Pogonovo has been established not earlier than Jan. 25th. Construction started between January 25th and on Jan 30th image we already can see the tents.
@konrad_muzyka
I can confirm that not only is Pogonovo occupied, but Russians also recently established a camp in Postoyalye Dvory, east of Kursk. These are very recent developments that occurred over the last 2 weeks. Postoyalye Dvory previously held elements of the 6.CAA, while Pogonovo 1.TA
@DefMon3 1h
Postoyalye Dvory training camp mentioned by @konrad_muzyka. Around 130 tents, it looks like at least 75% of them are heated.
Russian Internet trolling is part of their war effort.
Institute for the Study of War 12 Feb 2023:
“Russian information campaigns have supported a continuous strategic objective of deterring or slowing the West’s provision of material support to Ukraine...
Russia’s operational-level information campaigns aim either to set conditions for planned Russian operations or to mitigate Russian military failures...
Russia uses the narrative that Ukraine is incapable of defeating Russia because of inherent power disparities between the two states to mitigate major Russian setbacks or Russian failures to achieve rapid successes in major offensive operations...
Russia intensified narratives about the risk of nuclear escalation in September-November 2022 to reestablish deterrence and dissuade the West from providing Ukraine the materiel needed to continue its counteroffensives following devastating Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast...
It is now clear that the Russian information campaign centering on peace negotiations that intensified in December 2022 was aimed—among other things—at delaying the provision of Western tanks and other advanced equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives in order to set conditions for Russia’s own planned offensives...
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov notably signaled the end of the information operation, for the time, by announcing that Russia would continue to pursue a military solution in Ukraine on December 27.[21] It was too late, by that point, for the West to send tanks in time to interfere with the Russian offensive operation that began roughly a month later...
Russia continues its shaping effort targeting Western provisions of long-range weapons and tanks to Ukraine by spreading the narrative that Ukraine will deliberately threaten Russia with these weapons instead of prioritizing the liberation of its Russian-occupied territories...
Russia will continue to weaponize information operations to directly support discrete military operations in Ukraine—especially after it has regained the initiative on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin is resuming a narrative exaggerating Russian frontline victories with the ongoing offensives on Bakhmut and Lyman...
The West should consider that Russian discussions of negotiations may not be about negotiations or conditions for peace at all, but may rather be information campaigns specifically targeted at getting Russia through windows of opportunity or vulnerability on the battlefield.
All these information campaigns will support overarching Kremlin strategic aims of splitting the West from Ukraine, deterring or delaying the provision of Western materiel, and generally undermining Western support for Ukraine and the cohesion of the Western coalition.
@visegrad24 4h
The EU’s 10 sanctions package against Russia will include:
- Sanctions on 4 Russian banks
- Ban on Russian nationals serving on boards of critical infrastructure companies in the EU
- New listings of 130 entities & people
- Ban on Russian rubber, bitumen & asphalt
...There will also be a ban on exports into Russia of EU goods including trucks, other heavy vehicles, construction machines, pumps and other machines used in the construction sector as well as electronic components that Russia could use to make weapons.
@visegrad24 7h
BREAKING:
Moldovan president Maia Sandu has held a speech to nation, warning that Russia is planning a coup d’état in Moldova, complete with attacks on government buildings and hostage-taking by men with military training working under the guise of “opposition protesters.”
US State Department advises no travel to Russia:
https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/
Travel Advisory: Russia – Do Not Travel (”U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately”). https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4130717/posts
Alex Christoforou of The Duran: "Looking at the physical reality of the situation. There are no tanks, there are no fight jets and there is no ammo to give.
"Tanks and fight jets, if there are available to give, the time it would take to train (Ukraine soldiers) will take too long.
"It's not going to make a difference. Everyone knows it isn't going to make a difference. It's obvious.
"We've even had commanders in the Polish military, former ones, that have said it's over.
"Ukraine doesn't have the ability to launch an offensive."
Ramstein Conference tomorrow, 14 February - the Valentine’s Day massacre of Russia’s Imperial delusions
Free the Falcons!
