Posted on 02/10/2023 7:52:10 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Biden’s State of the Union address saw him bragging about his record job creation (actually, it was the private sector, not Biden than created jobs) and historic unemployment rate. What Biden didn’t mention (along with not discussing the porous Mexican border with fentanyl pouring across or why he failed to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon until after it has passed over numerous military reservation) is that the unemployment rate always hit a low point just prior to a recession.
So, here we sit at 3.4% unemployment. But we also see the US Treasury yield curves (10Y-3M and 10Y-2Y) remaining deeply inverted.
The US Treasury 10-year yield is up 5.5 basis points today.
And Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage survey rate is up slightly today.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
pedojoe’s goal is to break the economy severe enough that there can be no repair
And, Consumer sentiment just hit a 13 month high, what can it mean.
And it goes lower when a Democrat is president because they have special math to fudge.... er I mean determine the end results
Employment goes even lower when you seasonally adjust it with 3 million fake jobs.
The Yield Curve Would Invert By A Record 450bps If The Fed Hikes To 8%
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-would-invert-record-450bps-if-fed-hikes-8
It means people are stupid.
CC debt is at an all time high.
A bubble will burst, as they always do.
Timing is the problem...
A bubble will burst, as they always do.
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Inflation is still running at a high level and peoples’ disposable income is being steadily eroded away by it. Rising costs for the necessities of life (food, shelter, healthcare, and transportation) are leaving increasingly less money for discretionary items. Credit cards can only be run up so much to compensate for the deterioration of disposable cash.
Many people seem to believe that inflation is transitory and things will get back to normal before long. That is wishful thinking.
The bubble is poised to burst. Folks who cut back on their debt and expenditures will be better able to ride out the coming storm.
.
That doesn’t account for four seasons. It seems to be about 1 million fraudulent jobs reported per season. Given January’s job report, which had 500k+ new jobs, it may be more than a million per quarter and the 1 million per quarter is increasing.
I agree with your analysis. I’m actually surprised it hasn’t popped already.
Timing is near impossible to guess though.
Those who lose on Wall Street don’t write best selling novels, and hindsight is speculative as well.
We’ve been in a Recession for 2 years.
We’re going to have a Depression by Summer.
“The CPS report doesn't take into account whether or not workers are employed full-time, if they are underemployed, or if a worker has given up job searching.“ - What the Unemployment Rate Doesn't Tell Us (https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-unemployment-rate-doesnt-tell-us.aspx)
“ the labor force participation rate is at a paltry 62.3%. That means there are a lot of employable people who aren’t working or even looking for a job.” - Why Have So Many People Dropped Out of the Labor Market? | SchiffGold (https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/why-have-so-many-people-dropped-out-of-the-labor-market/#:~:text=And%20it's%20not%20just%20older,to%20work%20after%20the%20pandemic).
“A large number of American men of prime working age — between 25 and 54 years old — are not working or even looking for work, resulting in a major hole in the American economy. In 1953, 98% of men in that age range had a job or were looking for one. That number has fallen ever since. Today, 7.2 million men have essentially dropped out of the workforce.” - Millions of men have dropped out of the workforce, leaving companies struggling to fill jobs
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