Posted on 01/19/2023 6:31:37 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
December’s housing construction numbers are a mixed bag. On the one hand, US housing starts are down -1.36% from November to December, but down -21,8% since December 2021 (YoY).
The good news? 1-unit (single family detatched) rose 11.26% from November to December (MoM). But 5+ (multifamily) starts are down -18.91% MoM.
But 5+ unit PERMITS are up 7.14%. Perhaps Hunter Biden can now rent an apartment rather than pay his father $50,000 a month in rent for Joe’s Wilmington Delaware house.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Multi family units(apartments/condos) are still needed almost everywhere in the country.
The other shift is to 50+ older housing developments.
The average population of the country is getting older.
The baby boomers are either retired or within five to ten years of retirement. They do no need a 2500-3000+ sq foot house anymore. They want a 2 bedroom house that they can lock the door and travel. They don’t want to mow the lawn, snow blow the driveway or clean the gutters.
I am not seeing any correlation with money supply. Strong correlation with interest rates.
One thing CA did was streamline the ADU process... Additional Dwelling Units, cities now have pre-approved plans and lower fees. This saves thousands of $$.
Last year the required every ADU to have a gas connection. Which is stupid for a small 1 person unit. But they changed it this new year, no gas connection required.
I have 5 I want to build.
are you saying a sensible building policy was enacted in the state of California?
Here in the Atlanta area new townhouses are $400,000 minimum. Single family starts in the high $400’s and straight up. Anything in the low $300’s like our neighborhood is snapped up fast. We are finishing up the rehab of our 1350 sq ft brick ranch which will sell in a week at full price. Then we’re immediately starting a 1400 sq ft house on our rural property. Young people are snapping up the houses in our neighborhood.
Atlanta is the fastest growing market in housing starts as a percentage over 2021. As of November it was up 24% over the previous year to date. When it comes to total starts, Atlanta is ranked third in the country at 45K/YTD November 2022. Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston are number 1 & 2 at 72K and 71K respectively. Phoenix is 4th and I believe Austin is 5th.
On the contrary, Nashville and Philly were both down over 30%. Philly is down the most of any metro area.
Austin is down about 10%. Indy is up about 15%.
Every metro area in Florida is UP except Miami. Miami is down double digits. Tampa, Jacksonville, Ft Meyers, Sarasota, Orlando are all up in comparison to 2021.
Home buying looks to have dropped off a cliff.
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KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE.
Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory.
Last year the Cancel Rate was only 13%.
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1615471141530861568
Yep. Lack of inventory plus everybody and their brother moving here equals a strong market in the near future.
Says who? I like my sprawling house and wouldn’t have it any different. Mowing and other assorted chores keeps one in shape instead of fat and lazy. Too many nuts to dodge when traveling. No thanks, I stick to my spread and enjoy minimum stress.
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