Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
Ping to Threat Matrix 2023!
For historical reference TM2022 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 22nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2022 has been “historic”:
- Record inflation
- Record illegal immigration
- Record crime
- Record gas prices
- Record market losses not seen since 1871.
- U.S. housing market is experiencing its second-biggest home price correction of the post-World War II era.
- Unprecedented prime lending rate increases.
I expect 2023 to be even worse as we are facing:
- The potential for a serious and deep recession
- Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset”
- Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe
- Russian nuclear threats
- China making a move on Taiwan – breaking analysis
- Israel and Iran finally directly going at it.
- Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues.
- Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Please add 2023 to the title, though the coffee was working, my fingers were not
The path our so-called leaders have taken America and her People since 911 has not been for the faint of heart. May God watch over America and her People and keep all safe in this New Year.
Happy New Year 2023 (or at least I hope it will be ‘happy’ and not in the way the WEF defines ‘happy’)
If you want on the PING list, just let me know.
OVERVIEW -
I have a strong feeling that in 2023 we will look back to 2022 as the good old days. Too many things coming together that are bad.
Speaking of bad, many of the vectors I was concerned about and watching and converging in the latter half of 2022 didn’t synchronize up. This doesn’t mean they are invalid. It does mean that they pushed into 2023. We can’t dodge them forever.
GGR/WEF
Oxford has adopted an ordinance that tries to force residents into 15-minute enclaves. Climate Depot has the story:
Vision News, November 30th
Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.
Under the new scheme if residents want to leave their zone they will need permission from the Council who gets to decide who is worthy of freedom and who isn’t. Under the new scheme residents will be allowed to leave their zone a maximum of 100 days per year, but in order to even gain this every resident will have to register their car details with the council who will then track their movements via smart cameras round the city.
Every resident will be required to register their car with the County Council who will then monitor how many times they leave their district via number plate recognition cameras.
If an Oxford resident drives out of his neighborhood more than 100 times per year, he will be fined 70 pounds.
There is much more at the Climate Depot link. You might expect that Oxford, as a university town, would be low-IQ. But the disease is spreading:
[T]he 15 minute city is not just Oxford, but turning up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Barcelona, Paris, Portland and Buenos Aires. It’s everywhere.
OBSERVATION - A little old on the news side, but gives a peek behind the curtain on just how totalitarian the WEF models for our new “society” are going to be. One of the past stated goals by the globalists is to concentrate populations in cities, and this British plan is just one variant. While living in sacramento kalifornia, one of the big design plans for their light rail network was something similar, with stops serving clustered communities and retail, altering it from its current, standard urban/suburban large city structure.
Wuhan virus –
This year more efforts appear to be shifting to a search to pin the adverse affects onto the mRNA jabs. In 2022 we saw increasing, peer reviewed articles from respectable medical sources making the link and expect to see more this year. This is important because it demonstrates fraud on the part of Pfizer/Moderna and the CDC – fraud that can strip away the legal protection granted from civil lawsuits against those companies.
I expect that Florida’s lawsuit will establish fraudulent behavior by Pfizer and Moderna.
Economy –
Timing and severity of the inbound recession of 2023 are still being bantered about by many economists and money managers. One factor that may play a key role is the recent “Inflation Reduction Act”. Buried in this act is a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. What this will do is affect stock buybacks, which are still the primary means by which equities are kept afloat by major corporations. Over the past decade, buybacks have been funded by money borrowed from the Fed at near-zero interest – essentially free money. Now, the easy money party is about to end.
The 1% excise tax added on top of a 5% Fed funds rate creates a 6% millstone on any money borrowed to finance future buybacks. This cost is going to be far too high and buybacks will falter. Meaning, stock markets will also stop, and drop. It will likely take two or three months before the tax and the rate hikes create a visible effect on markets. This would put our time frame for contraction around March or April of 2023.
Energy and food price inflation and shortages remain a domestic concern over the near term. Natural gas storage in the Western U.S. is at its lowest level since 2009. Food prices increased significantly in November, with eggs seeing the largest price increase in four decades.
While gasoline prices have dropped in recent months, analysts expect prices to again exceed the $4/gallon mark – though not attaining the record $5+/gallon of 2022. However, global events can quickly change the equation, particularly when supplies are interrupted – such as would happen if China/Taiwan or Israel/Iran kicks off. Another point is oil and energy prices are being kept down because of China’s Zero Covid policy, which is slowing their economy to a crawl and reducing oil usage to a minimum. A reopening by early next year is on the way. As soon as China reopens, oil prices will skyrocket once again on the global market.
Invasion of Illegals –
2023 will not be good for the country as illegals pour across the border, creating law enforcement and social services crisis’ – resulting in lower income Americans losing services. Violence and property crimes will skyrocket as these illegals fail to find work and start taking advantage of the lack of will to deport. We are already past a threshold where we could find and deport these illegals.
Further expect more pushes by democrats (with help from turncoat republicans in both houses) to provide some degree of legalization of most of the illegals. Could be facing as much as 25 - 50% more entering the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s health is still questionable and he may become incapacitated this next year, either physically or mentally. This would create a crisis in govt as dems try to position someone into the WH other than Harris who is electable for 2024
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa et al will continue small scale supporting counter protests as well as community outreach. It will continue to identify more lethal and intimidating tactics and grow its core of trained and ideologically ‘pure’ membership.
NLT than the 2024 campaign season rush, biden DoJ/FBI will make a move to indict and arrest Trump – likely in a very showy manner in order to maximize the shock to Trump followers and attempt to instigate a violent reaction by the right.
I believe that the govt will increase its intrusion into spying on citizens, especially those identified as ‘white, Christian nationalists domestic terrorists”. Agent Provocateurs will be active in groups like the 3 percenters, etc to encourage some act of violence to justify a nation wide crackdown. This may result in pushback from Red states and leaders as well - increasing the chances of conflict of some kind - likely legal push back. This risk will increase as 2024 comes rushing in.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter Files aside, the other components of Big Tech are likely to continue to conduct government direction cancelling of regime opponents. DoJ/FBI will simply ignore their unconsitiutional actions and continue as is with MSM coverage. This will get worse once again as the 2024 elections come down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mostly stalemate in congress as republicans manage to muster opposition in the house to stop the biden regime agenda. Senate republican turncoats in the Senate will continue to be more democrat than republican.
Democrats and the rest of the swamp will pursue Trump with every means available in order to discredit him and render him ineligible to run for the WH again. Level of effort will shame a lot of what the Stasi did in the past. This will also continue to spill over onto Trump supporters.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Hard to judge at this time. Should things go sideways, I expect foreigners (principally illegals) to take advantage and have sleeper cells activate.
Latest ruminting on the string of power substation vandalisms. Some suggest that environmentalists are doing the damage. Another possible source among many potential actors out there.
China – NEW info
WAR WATCH
I have added a WAR WATCH to China has there has developed a very high possibility of launching some sort of attempt on Taiwan this year and in particular, the next 30 days, around the Chinese New Year time frame. The most likely actions is for China to start some level of blockade in around. China will then have roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan opens up in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas, forcing Taiwanese concession without a major war.
Reasons for the increase in the potential timetable by China include:
- Potential of a major recession in the US beginning as early as this spring.
- Success of the ‘soft’ blockade in Aug 2022 after pelosi’s visit thru blanketing the areas around Taiwan with ‘exercise’ and live fire zones.
- Increasing miliary preparedness by other western pacific nations - Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand – which would make a military move at a later date more problematical.
- China may believe that it currently has adequate naval, and air capabilities to counter any US efforts to thwart China’s plans
Chinese strategic goals –
1. Obtain surrender by Taiwan with little or no combat
2. Obtain surrender by Taiwan by direct assault if necessary (most dangerous course of action – MDCOA).
China is fully capable of;
- imposing a blockade at any time of its choosing.
- Launching air, sea and missile attacks at any time of its choosing
- Has range of conventional and nuclear options available at any time.
- Launching an amphibious assault as early as April 2023, giving the China the time to assemble the assault forces and transports necessary
Current indicators
1. Dramatically increased air and naval exercises around Taiwan, some even being announced as ‘strike’ exercises.
2. Chinese naval exercises close to key US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
3. Chinese purchases of cheap Russia oil and storing in stockpiles
4. Increased cooperative exercises with Russia and improving relations between Xi and Putin.
5. Aggressive air intercepts of US reconnaissance aircraft.
Chinese Economic situation -
China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.
OBSERVATION – War often can be used to distract and modify economic woes as a means to jump start the economy as well as a unifier of the country to detract from economic woes.
North/South Korea –
NK popped a few short ranged missiles into the sea for a new years celebration
I don’t think NK has this miniaturized nuclear weapon – yet. I suspect that the next underground test will involve testing this more deployable device.
According to the official Korean Central News Agency, Kim stressed the need to secure “overwhelming military power” to defend North Korea’s sovereignty and security at a recent meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party. Kim accused South Korea of being “hell-bent on imprudent and dangerous arms build-up’’ and trumpeting its preparations for war with Pyongyang.
That, the North Korean leader said, highlights the need to mass-produce battlefield tactical nuclear weapons and calls for “an exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal,’’ KCNA reported.
Kim also said that the United States and South Korea were trying to “isolate and stifle” the North with US nuclear strike assets constantly deployed in the South, calling it “unprecedented in human history.”
He pledged to develop another ICBM system “whose main mission is quick nuclear counter-strike” under a plan to boost the country’s nuclear force, KCNA said.
OBSERVATION – The military build up Kim is calling for is not cheap and the NK economy is hardly capable of supporting. I think what is key here is that knowing NK no longer has a credible military threat on the ground, he is betting the ranch that this could be offset by a nuclear deterrence. Again, historical perspective – when NK began its development towards nuclear weapons and delivery systems it was common for the rockets to blow up on the pads or shortly after launch. Those failures are now a small percentage and NK has demonstrated the ability to place an object in polar orbit as well as its newest missile being capable of carrying multiple warheads to any location in the US. What is standing in his way IMHO, is a demonstratable nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by his rockets and in the case of a strike against the US, a survivable reentry mode to protect the warhead. NK’s next underground test may well be of such a miniaturized warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The “three days to conquer Ukraine” continues after fighting started on Feb 24th, 2022.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bahkmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin devoted his annual New Year’s address on Saturday to rallying the Russian people behind his troops fighting in Ukraine and pledging victory over Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” and a West supposedly intent on “destroying Russia”. Its soldiers, he said, were fighting for “our motherland, truth and justice ... so that Russia’s security can be guaranteed”.
In the nine-minute address - the longest of his 22 years in power - Putin targeted those opposed to the conflict, a personal crusade that now defines his tenure and Russia’s relations with the world.
RUMINT - Danish military intelligence suggests drug-induced megalomania may have influenced Putin to invade Ukraine. The Russian president Vladimir Putin was likely influenced by medication when he decided to launch a war in Ukraine. In an interview with Berlingske, the head of Russia analysis at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, provides some rare insights into what we currently know about Putin – and what may eventually lead him to lose power.
»Delusions of grandeur are one of the known side effects of the type of hormone treatment that he was on,« Joakim states. »It’s not something I can say for certain, but I think it did affect his decisions when he launched the war in Ukraine. «
The man making this stunning observation is not just anyone. Joakim heads the Russia analysis team at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. For security reasons he is not allowed to present himself in photos or using his last name. It wasn’t poor intelligence but Putin’s ideological convictions that led Russian soldiers to believe they would be greeted with flowers. (H/T GOPJ)
NOTE- putin’s health has been a common point of issue of late. Recent public appearances suggest he is suffering from some kind of serious medical condition – thus he has been limiting and controlling them. Severe, life threatening illnesses by itself and standard medications taken to combat it are more than capable of altering mental conditions and stability. Serious for continued heavy Russian losses in Ukraine and an even more dangerous potential for limited nuclear use, particularly if the reportedly planned winter offensive fails.
Logistics –
- Russia delivered advanced jet fighters to Iran as part of a likely deal for more drones and probably Iranian constructed short to intermediate range ballistic missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Additional cruise missile and drone attacks, mostly focused on Kyiv. Front in the east is largely unchanged
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
I know I’ve said Russia is running low on its missile stockpile, but continue to be surprised by these cruise missle attacks. The assessment remains though because
1. Russia has been relying heavily on Iranian drones
2. Russia has been using up a large stockpile of S300 missiles that have been converted to ground attack modes
3. These missile barrages are substantially smaller and are occurring at longer intervals.
Build up for a winter offensive by both sides continues and recent fighting potentially reflects maneuvering into better positions to either launch or defend from an offensive.
Increased focus on the timing of a Russian offensive has generally focused on the latter part of January to early February. Recent interactions between Xi and putin and the War Watch on China (see above), may suggest that the window for the Russian kickoff could coincide with the Chinese New Year. If China takes action against Taiwan in that time frame and Russia manages to get out of the shoots for its offensive – this two front action could freeze western response, giving both China and Russia an opportunity to gain the momentum.
See Belarus below – a Russia or a combined Russian/Belarus attack into N Ukraine is still judged to be unlikely at this time.
Belarus -
Recent intelligence assessments suggest that Belarus’ artillery stockpiles have been essentially tapped out by Russia. This would indicate that a Belarus/Russia invasion from the north is less likely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There is a moderate chance of some degree of fighting in N Kosovo sometime in 2023 – becoming very likely if Russia launches its offensive. At current, the near term look is continued high tensions but no overt military action by Serbia.
Israel –
It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.
Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.
Iran –
Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.
Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.
Protests rekindled over the past few days as anniversaries of those killed by the regime came around and the govt cracked down by killing more protestors.
Syria -
Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.
Turkey -
Turkey has been playing on both sides of the fence lately. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas and purchasing the S400 air defense missle system . It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.
Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.
Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.
India -
Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.
Happy New Year 2023 (or at least I hope it will be ‘happy’ and not in the way the WEF defines ‘happy’)
If you want on the PING list, just let me know.
OVERVIEW -
I have a strong feeling that in 2023 we will look back to 2022 as the good old days. Too many things coming together that are bad.
Speaking of bad, many of the vectors I was concerned about and watching and converging in the latter half of 2022 didn’t synchronize up. This doesn’t mean they are invalid. It does mean that they pushed into 2023. We can’t dodge them forever.
GGR/WEF
Oxford has adopted an ordinance that tries to force residents into 15-minute enclaves. Climate Depot has the story:
Vision News, November 30th
Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.
Under the new scheme if residents want to leave their zone they will need permission from the Council who gets to decide who is worthy of freedom and who isn’t. Under the new scheme residents will be allowed to leave their zone a maximum of 100 days per year, but in order to even gain this every resident will have to register their car details with the council who will then track their movements via smart cameras round the city.
Every resident will be required to register their car with the County Council who will then monitor how many times they leave their district via number plate recognition cameras.
If an Oxford resident drives out of his neighborhood more than 100 times per year, he will be fined 70 pounds.
There is much more at the Climate Depot link. You might expect that Oxford, as a university town, would be low-IQ. But the disease is spreading:
[T]he 15 minute city is not just Oxford, but turning up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Barcelona, Paris, Portland and Buenos Aires. It’s everywhere.
OBSERVATION - A little old on the news side, but gives a peek behind the curtain on just how totalitarian the WEF models for our new “society” are going to be. One of the past stated goals by the globalists is to concentrate populations in cities, and this British plan is just one variant. While living in sacramento kalifornia, one of the big design plans for their light rail network was something similar, with stops serving clustered communities and retail, altering it from its current, standard urban/suburban large city structure.
Wuhan virus –
This year more efforts appear to be shifting to a search to pin the adverse affects onto the mRNA jabs. In 2022 we saw increasing, peer reviewed articles from respectable medical sources making the link and expect to see more this year. This is important because it demonstrates fraud on the part of Pfizer/Moderna and the CDC – fraud that can strip away the legal protection granted from civil lawsuits against those companies.
I expect that Florida’s lawsuit will establish fraudulent behavior by Pfizer and Moderna.
Economy –
Timing and severity of the inbound recession of 2023 are still being bantered about by many economists and money managers. One factor that may play a key role is the recent “Inflation Reduction Act”. Buried in this act is a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. What this will do is affect stock buybacks, which are still the primary means by which equities are kept afloat by major corporations. Over the past decade, buybacks have been funded by money borrowed from the Fed at near-zero interest – essentially free money. Now, the easy money party is about to end.
The 1% excise tax added on top of a 5% Fed funds rate creates a 6% millstone on any money borrowed to finance future buybacks. This cost is going to be far too high and buybacks will falter. Meaning, stock markets will also stop, and drop. It will likely take two or three months before the tax and the rate hikes create a visible effect on markets. This would put our time frame for contraction around March or April of 2023.
Energy and food price inflation and shortages remain a domestic concern over the near term. Natural gas storage in the Western U.S. is at its lowest level since 2009. Food prices increased significantly in November, with eggs seeing the largest price increase in four decades.
While gasoline prices have dropped in recent months, analysts expect prices to again exceed the $4/gallon mark – though not attaining the record $5+/gallon of 2022. However, global events can quickly change the equation, particularly when supplies are interrupted – such as would happen if China/Taiwan or Israel/Iran kicks off. Another point is oil and energy prices are being kept down because of China’s Zero Covid policy, which is slowing their economy to a crawl and reducing oil usage to a minimum. A reopening by early next year is on the way. As soon as China reopens, oil prices will skyrocket once again on the global market.
Invasion of Illegals –
2023 will not be good for the country as illegals pour across the border, creating law enforcement and social services crisis’ – resulting in lower income Americans losing services. Violence and property crimes will skyrocket as these illegals fail to find work and start taking advantage of the lack of will to deport. We are already past a threshold where we could find and deport these illegals.
Further expect more pushes by democrats (with help from turncoat republicans in both houses) to provide some degree of legalization of most of the illegals. Could be facing as much as 25 - 50% more entering the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s health is still questionable and he may become incapacitated this next year, either physically or mentally. This would create a crisis in govt as dems try to position someone into the WH other than Harris who is electable for 2024
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa et al will continue small scale supporting counter protests as well as community outreach. It will continue to identify more lethal and intimidating tactics and grow its core of trained and ideologically ‘pure’ membership.
NLT than the 2024 campaign season rush, biden DoJ/FBI will make a move to indict and arrest Trump – likely in a very showy manner in order to maximize the shock to Trump followers and attempt to instigate a violent reaction by the right.
I believe that the govt will increase its intrusion into spying on citizens, especially those identified as ‘white, Christian nationalists domestic terrorists”. Agent Provocateurs will be active in groups like the 3 percenters, etc to encourage some act of violence to justify a nation wide crackdown. This may result in pushback from Red states and leaders as well - increasing the chances of conflict of some kind - likely legal push back. This risk will increase as 2024 comes rushing in.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter Files aside, the other components of Big Tech are likely to continue to conduct government direction cancelling of regime opponents. DoJ/FBI will simply ignore their unconsitiutional actions and continue as is with MSM coverage. This will get worse once again as the 2024 elections come down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mostly stalemate in congress as republicans manage to muster opposition in the house to stop the biden regime agenda. Senate republican turncoats in the Senate will continue to be more democrat than republican.
Democrats and the rest of the swamp will pursue Trump with every means available in order to discredit him and render him ineligible to run for the WH again. Level of effort will shame a lot of what the Stasi did in the past. This will also continue to spill over onto Trump supporters.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Hard to judge at this time. Should things go sideways, I expect foreigners (principally illegals) to take advantage and have sleeper cells activate.
Latest ruminting on the string of power substation vandalisms. Some suggest that environmentalists are doing the damage. Another possible source among many potential actors out there.
China – NEW info
WAR WATCH
I have added a WAR WATCH to China has there has developed a very high possibility of launching some sort of attempt on Taiwan this year and in particular, the next 30 days, around the Chinese New Year time frame. The most likely actions is for China to start some level of blockade in around. China will then have roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan opens up in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas, forcing Taiwanese concession without a major war.
Reasons for the increase in the potential timetable by China include:
- Potential of a major recession in the US beginning as early as this spring.
- Success of the ‘soft’ blockade in Aug 2022 after pelosi’s visit thru blanketing the areas around Taiwan with ‘exercise’ and live fire zones.
- Increasing miliary preparedness by other western pacific nations - Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand – which would make a military move at a later date more problematical.
- China may believe that it currently has adequate naval, and air capabilities to counter any US efforts to thwart China’s plans
Chinese strategic goals –
1. Obtain surrender by Taiwan with little or no combat
2. Obtain surrender by Taiwan by direct assault if necessary (most dangerous course of action – MDCOA).
China is fully capable of;
- imposing a blockade at any time of its choosing.
- Launching air, sea and missile attacks at any time of its choosing
- Has range of conventional and nuclear options available at any time.
- Launching an amphibious assault as early as April 2023, giving the China the time to assemble the assault forces and transports necessary
Current indicators
1. Dramatically increased air and naval exercises around Taiwan, some even being announced as ‘strike’ exercises.
2. Chinese naval exercises close to key US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
3. Chinese purchases of cheap Russia oil and storing in stockpiles
4. Increased cooperative exercises with Russia and improving relations between Xi and Putin.
5. Aggressive air intercepts of US reconnaissance aircraft.
Chinese Economic situation -
China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.
OBSERVATION – War often can be used to distract and modify economic woes as a means to jump start the economy as well as a unifier of the country to detract from economic woes.
North/South Korea –
NK popped a few short ranged missiles into the sea for a new years celebration
I don’t think NK has this miniaturized nuclear weapon – yet. I suspect that the next underground test will involve testing this more deployable device.
According to the official Korean Central News Agency, Kim stressed the need to secure “overwhelming military power” to defend North Korea’s sovereignty and security at a recent meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party. Kim accused South Korea of being “hell-bent on imprudent and dangerous arms build-up’’ and trumpeting its preparations for war with Pyongyang.
That, the North Korean leader said, highlights the need to mass-produce battlefield tactical nuclear weapons and calls for “an exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal,’’ KCNA reported.
Kim also said that the United States and South Korea were trying to “isolate and stifle” the North with US nuclear strike assets constantly deployed in the South, calling it “unprecedented in human history.”
He pledged to develop another ICBM system “whose main mission is quick nuclear counter-strike” under a plan to boost the country’s nuclear force, KCNA said.
OBSERVATION – The military build up Kim is calling for is not cheap and the NK economy is hardly capable of supporting. I think what is key here is that knowing NK no longer has a credible military threat on the ground, he is betting the ranch that this could be offset by a nuclear deterrence. Again, historical perspective – when NK began its development towards nuclear weapons and delivery systems it was common for the rockets to blow up on the pads or shortly after launch. Those failures are now a small percentage and NK has demonstrated the ability to place an object in polar orbit as well as its newest missile being capable of carrying multiple warheads to any location in the US. What is standing in his way IMHO, is a demonstratable nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by his rockets and in the case of a strike against the US, a survivable reentry mode to protect the warhead. NK’s next underground test may well be of such a miniaturized warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The “three days to conquer Ukraine” continues after fighting started on Feb 24th, 2022.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bahkmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin devoted his annual New Year’s address on Saturday to rallying the Russian people behind his troops fighting in Ukraine and pledging victory over Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” and a West supposedly intent on “destroying Russia”. Its soldiers, he said, were fighting for “our motherland, truth and justice ... so that Russia’s security can be guaranteed”.
In the nine-minute address - the longest of his 22 years in power - Putin targeted those opposed to the conflict, a personal crusade that now defines his tenure and Russia’s relations with the world.
RUMINT - Danish military intelligence suggests drug-induced megalomania may have influenced Putin to invade Ukraine. The Russian president Vladimir Putin was likely influenced by medication when he decided to launch a war in Ukraine. In an interview with Berlingske, the head of Russia analysis at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, provides some rare insights into what we currently know about Putin – and what may eventually lead him to lose power.
»Delusions of grandeur are one of the known side effects of the type of hormone treatment that he was on,« Joakim states. »It’s not something I can say for certain, but I think it did affect his decisions when he launched the war in Ukraine. «
The man making this stunning observation is not just anyone. Joakim heads the Russia analysis team at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. For security reasons he is not allowed to present himself in photos or using his last name. It wasn’t poor intelligence but Putin’s ideological convictions that led Russian soldiers to believe they would be greeted with flowers. (H/T GOPJ)
NOTE- putin’s health has been a common point of issue of late. Recent public appearances suggest he is suffering from some kind of serious medical condition – thus he has been limiting and controlling them. Severe, life threatening illnesses by itself and standard medications taken to combat it are more than capable of altering mental conditions and stability. Serious for continued heavy Russian losses in Ukraine and an even more dangerous potential for limited nuclear use, particularly if the reportedly planned winter offensive fails.
Logistics –
- Russia delivered advanced jet fighters to Iran as part of a likely deal for more drones and probably Iranian constructed short to intermediate range ballistic missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Additional cruise missile and drone attacks, mostly focused on Kyiv. Front in the east is largely unchanged
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
I know I’ve said Russia is running low on its missile stockpile, but continue to be surprised by these cruise missle attacks. The assessment remains though because
1. Russia has been relying heavily on Iranian drones
2. Russia has been using up a large stockpile of S300 missiles that have been converted to ground attack modes
3. These missile barrages are substantially smaller and are occurring at longer intervals.
Build up for a winter offensive by both sides continues and recent fighting potentially reflects maneuvering into better positions to either launch or defend from an offensive.
Increased focus on the timing of a Russian offensive has generally focused on the latter part of January to early February. Recent interactions between Xi and putin and the War Watch on China (see above), may suggest that the window for the Russian kickoff could coincide with the Chinese New Year. If China takes action against Taiwan in that time frame and Russia manages to get out of the shoots for its offensive – this two front action could freeze western response, giving both China and Russia an opportunity to gain the momentum.
See Belarus below – a Russia or a combined Russian/Belarus attack into N Ukraine is still judged to be unlikely at this time.
Belarus -
Recent intelligence assessments suggest that Belarus’ artillery stockpiles have been essentially tapped out by Russia. This would indicate that a Belarus/Russia invasion from the north is less likely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There is a moderate chance of some degree of fighting in N Kosovo sometime in 2023 – becoming very likely if Russia launches its offensive. At current, the near term look is continued high tensions but no overt military action by Serbia.
Israel –
It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.
Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.
Iran –
Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.
Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.
Protests rekindled over the past few days as anniversaries of those killed by the regime came around and the govt cracked down by killing more protestors.
Syria -
Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.
Turkey -
Turkey has been playing on both sides of the fence lately. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas and purchasing the S400 air defense missle system . It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.
Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.
Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.
India -
Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.
I can’t shake the feeling that inhabitants of Constantinople must have had when Medmed II was shelling the walls of the city to soften it up for conquest.
But instead of artillery shells hitting us, we have misinformation, economic warfare, and bioweapon attacks.
We will soon get a taste of starvation if the globalists and China have their way.
Food shortages have been a continuing concern noted here on TM over the past year. It will get progressively worse in the years to come imho.
Well, moving into 2023 things are not unchanged from 2022.
Globalism / Great Reset –
This year is going to be tougher on the global economy than the one we have left behind, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned.
“Why? Because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said in an interview that aired on CBS Sunday.
“We expect one third of the world economy to be in recession,” she said, adding that even for countries that are not in recession: “It would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people.”
OBSERVATION – Global economic crisis is considered essential for the “Great Reset”. In order for something to be ‘reset’, it has to be broken.
Former People’s Bank of China official Xie Ping said in a recent interview that the digital yuan only achieved $14 billion in trade over the last two years. Xie reportedly said that the main shortfall was the currency only functions as a cash substitute.
OBSERVATION – The globalist reaction will likely be the elimination of cash – then there would be no other option. Already under consideration by multiple nations including the US. China has been one of the WEFs pilot tests for the system.
During its 2023 Davos conference, the World Economic Forum will host a press conference on its “Building The Metaverse Initiative,” and release key “studies” and details about its efforts to further facilitate what appears to amount to a global surveillance network, according to documents reviewed by The Dossier.
The Metaverse, a buzzworthy bumper sticker slogan that refers to a whole host of ideas in the technology space, has potential current and future applications both for private and governmental entities. It will be featured as one of the core staples of the 2023 Davos conference.
What is the Metaverse, exactly?
The term Metaverse was invented by author Neal Stephenson in his 1992 sci-fi novel Snow Crash, in which citizens used digital avatars as a means to escape their dystopian reality.
Today it can be defined as “a vision of what many in the computer industry believe is the next iteration of the internet: a single, shared, immersive, persistent, 3D virtual space where humans experience life in ways they could not in the physical world.” Before its expanded definition, the Metaverse encompassed a technologically advancing virtual and augmented reality space.
The WEF Metaverse press conference event description reads:
“This press conference will announce the first, and long-awaited, outputs of the Defining and Building the Metaverse Initiative: highly anticipated briefing papers on Interoperability in the Metaverse from the governance track of the project, and Demystifying the Consumer Metaverse from the value creation track. These two briefing papers, the first in each workstream’s series, will serve as the foremost publications involving this amount of research, this number of stakeholders from diverse industries (120+ partners are involved in this initiative), into these topics.”
OBSERVATION – The whole metaverse discussion from outside the WEF crowd is very diverse – indicating that there is great potential for other uses besides the Fakebook 3-D synthetic ‘universe’. Some look towards the WEF’s goal to merge man and machine (transhumanism) and the often spoken attempt to transfer individual consciousness’ onto computers — creating their form of ‘eternal life’ for the chosen ones. Others see another technological means to control the masses deemed worthy of continuing to live. Even at its most benign level, the effort reeks of a sci-fi dystopian future.
Wuhan virus –
The rate of COVID-19 infections may have exceeded 50 percent in Chinese provinces and large cities and reached as high as 80 percent in the capital city of Beijing, the country’s health experts and officials estimated, painting a picture much grimmer than what the nation’s central authorities disclosed and fueling distrust around the world.
“The infection rate of the current COVID wave is already very high, with many large cities seeing it exceed 50 percent,” Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, said on Dec. 29 at an online forum. That may reach up to 80 percent during China’s Lunar New Year in late January.
OBSERVATION – Hmmmmm seems familar. Some in China are claiming the reported explosion of cases is due to the relaxation of zero-covid standards. Though deaths are being reported, and even a small percentage of deaths among an estimated 500,000 million would be a lot, reports are not indicating that is a major concern, just the levels of hospitalizations.
IN RELATED - Australia and Canada became the latest countries to require travelers from China to provide negative COVID-19 tests upon arrival. The United States, Britain, France, South Korea, and several other countries have all imposed similar measures. Morocco will impose a ban on people arriving from China, its foreign ministry said.
OBSERVATION – Where did we see this before? Could be a pretense for reinstatement of wuhan tyranny of masks and separations/shutdowns.
A far-left (borderline Marxist) group calling itself the “People’s CDC” has called for more radical coronavirus policies like indefinite mask mandates and social distancing, charging that America’s relaxed pandemic policies stem from a racist eugenics impulse beholden to corporate interests.
OBSERVATION – SMH, its all about power, not the virus.
Economy –
The Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA) reported this week that enrollment in Medicaid will reach 100 million in about 76 days, based upon its enrollment countdown clock.
Medicaid is a federal- and state-funded program that helps pay the health care costs of individuals and families who are poor, in low-income brackets
OBSERVATION – Medicaid can be used as a gauge to evaluate the economic health of the nation’s families. By this measure, nearly 30% of the nation are considered ‘poor’. Some of this level is due in part to wuhan and fed govt supplying extra money to cover new enrollees. But at this stage, the growth of enrollment shows that there are areas of weakness in the economy.
Also, let us not forget. A goal of a tyrannical govt is to make as many people dependent on govt as possible – making for easier control.
A 2008 rule passed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) banning diesel vehicles over 14,000 pounds manufactured before 2010 took effect 1 January 2023. An estimated 200,000 vehicles, including 70,000 semi trucks, do not comply with the rule. According to industry groups, 10% of commercial vehicles on the road in California are now banned.
OBSERVATION – kalifornia’s green movement is in large part dooming the kalifornia economy. More expensive, mandated trucks require a lot of capitol to fund – and knowing that the next phase of kalifornian control is to eliminate diesel/gasoline powered trucks all together and force EV trucks. Biggest hit will be smaller companies.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A national survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group last month indicates that America may be politically segregating at a much faster pace than is apparent from net population changes. The survey asked likely voters, “Have you moved in the last 3 years, or plan to move in the next year, to a region that aligns more closely with your political and/or personal beliefs?”
Over 4% of Republicans and independents said they had already moved, in the last three years, to a region more closely aligned with their political beliefs.
Far more importantly, over 10% of Republicans and over 9% of Independents say they plan to move in the next year to a region in which they are more politically aligned. Just as significantly, those numbers are far smaller for Democrats.
OBSERVATION – As been recognized, the Red is getting Redder, while the blue – bluer. Along the same lines is the continued growth in opinions that there should be an actual split – by both sides. Some hope that the ‘divorce’ will be peaceful. No it won’t as the Marxist left wants power for power sake and its tyrants in the fed govt will not allow its control over the Red regions go unchallenged. On the other side, one wonders how long red areas will chafe under the yoke of an inept and destructive central government.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Elon Musk, on Sunday, teased that this week’s Twitter Files report would focus on the now former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, in what could be known as the Fauci Files.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The Department of Homeland Security released on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, a warning about an upcoming terrorist attack. According to the intelligence, al Qaeda is actively recruiting new suicide bombers to use aircraft in attacks on the United States that are similar to what took place on September 11, 2001. They will use different strategies and tactics, according to the memo. Those strategies were not specified.
OBSERVATION - AQ acting on weakness – like all islam does and the biden regime is acting very weak. It doesn’t help that the regime is taking Air Marshals out of the planes and placing them in administrative positions on the border to process illegals.
19-year-old Trevor Bickford, from Wells, Maine, is the kid who injured three NYPD officers with a machete in an unprovoked attack in Times Square. He was on the FBI’ watchlist’ after being radicalized. UK’s Daily Mail wrote, “the FBI in Boston do have an open case on him,” and “he is on a ‘guardian list’ because of his radicalization.”
NYPD shot him and he was rushed to Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan, along with the two cops he injured — all three are expected to survive.
OBSERVATION – On the FBI’s watch list. However, this poses a serious question – do we want preemptive arrests to prevent a crime and just how does our constitution respond to that? Taking it one step further, if preemptive arrests are allowed, whats to stop them from ‘arresting’ patriot group members to prevent ‘domestic attacks’. We must be careful for what we ask for because it will be twisted against us.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chineese New Years timeframe.
Current contraindicator – See wuhan above. ,” Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, said on Dec. 29 at an online forum. That may reach up to 80 percent during China’s Lunar New Year in late January. This being the same time frame for initiation of operations against Taiwan and may cause China to delay implementation as it tries to deal with this internal problem.
See Globalism/Great Reset above on digital currency status
North/South Korea –
North Korea has sacked Pak Jong Chon, the second most powerful military official after leader Kim Jong Un, state media reported.
Pak, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and a secretary of the party’s Central Committee, was replaced by Ri Yong Gil at the committee’s annual meeting last week, the official KCNA news agency said on Sunday.
No reason for the change was given. Pyongyang regularly revamps its leadership and the year-end party gathering has often been used to announce personnel reshuffles and major policy decisions.
OBSERVATION – With the recent announcement by Kim that NK was going to build a massive nuclear arsenal, Chon may have been seen as a liability and not an asset towards this goal. May also be associated with the recent flare-up in inter-Korea tension over North Korean drones’ intrusion into the south.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Colonel General Sergin Surovikin, “The Butcher of Syria”, is being replaced by Russian Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov in heading Russia’s Western Group of Forces in Ukraine.
Lieutenant General Nikiforov will be the 4th person to have taken this position since the invasion of Ukraine began; his predecessor only held the position for three months. In his previous role, Nikiforov led the offensive on Kyiv. Some would call the promotion controversial as Lieutenant General Nikiforov is alleged to be partly responsible for failed attempts by the Eastern Group of Forces to advance into Kyiv via the toxic Chornobyl area.
RUMINT-
Photos of putin at his new years address suggest he was wearing body armor of some sort under his clothing.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Missile/drone strikes have tapered off from the weekend and ground fighting has resumed in all the same places as before. No apparent changes on the ground. Big story is the HIMARS strike that appears to have killed 400-700 Russian soldiers.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports that Ukrainian forces are pushing towards control of highway P-66 north of Kreminna. Ukraine has been able to keep this major supply route under artillery fire and now their ground forces appear to be close to physically cutting the route off. It would be a significant blow to the logistics support to the northern regions of the Russian Donbas effort.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian Ministry of defense: as many as 160 dead and 200 wounded Russian servicemen as result of HIMARS missile strike at base in Makiivka
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
OUTLOOK ——
However, there appears to be some changes in the Ukraine/Russian HIMARS dance in the east. Reports are that Russia has learned it must scatter its ammo/logistics dumps all over the place and not concentrate them, making them easy prey for HIMARS. They haven’t done the same for troop concentrations, as evidenced by HIMARS strike at base in Makiivka that killed as many as 400-700 Russian soldiers. The key here is that it is believed that these are recent conscripts from the mobilization and that the military was keeping them in a singular location to prevent them from exfiltrating / abandoning the war and escaping – a problem that has plagued Russian forces since the call up. With winter coming in hard, and Russian logistics incapable of supplying winter equipment, Russian soldiers will congregate in buildings to escape the weather.
Israel –
See Syria below on overnight air strike
New Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen signaled a policy shift on Ukraine in his 1st speech hinting the new government will take a more pro-Russian line. He said he will speak on Tuesday with Russian FM Lavrov – 1st such call since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Dangerous course getting cozier with a scorpion. They are blind to the realization that Russia has moved into a very close cooperative relationship with Israel’s arch enemy – Iran.
Iran –
See Lebanon RE Hezbollah leader seriously ill.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are building two naval carriers for launching armed drones and fighter helicopters, thereby diversifying their capabilities for potential attacks on the US and Israel. This project draws on lessons from Russia’s use of their drones in its war on Ukraine. The carriers, Shahid Mahdavi and Shaid Bagheri, will have decks 240m long. Working at top speed, the ISOICO shipyard outside the Bandar Abbas port, is due to finish work on the first vessel, Shahid Mahdavi 110-3, by mid-2023.
OBSERVATION – It wasn’t too long ago we made fun of Iran’s miliary complex, trying to scrape up parts to keep their fleet of cold war fighter jets in the air. Today, Iran’s military complex has matured and Iran is demonstrating an abilty to think out of the box in an asymmetrical warfare role, versus the conventional naval one. They are quickly adjusting to the new battle norm of drone wars and as stated, taking lessons learned to quickly capitalize in it.
Lebanon -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was rushed to intensive care after suffering a stroke, according to reports from Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
The reports came after Nasrallah canceled a planned Friday speech, with the Lebanese terrorist organization announcing through its affiliated media he had fallen ill with influenza and was unable to speak well.
Saudi journalist Hussein al-Gawi contradicted Hezbollah’s statement, claiming that Nasrallah indeed suffered a second stroke instead of falling ill as was reported. The Hezbollah leader was reportedly hospitalized at the Great Prophet Hospital in Beirut.
OBSERVATION - Should he die, forward operations for Hezbollah may stall for a period as his replacement solidifies his control and starts implementing his plans. That said, Iran is the major driver and any hiccup with Hezbollah may be very limited.
Syria -
Israel’s military has fired missiles on the international airport of Syria’s capital, putting it out of service and killing two soldiers and wounding two others, the Syrian army said. The Damascus airport was closed for a period as a result, but is reportedly reopened at limited capacity.
Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and discussed the details of the tripartite ministerial meeting with his Syrian counterpart. The meeting could take place in the second half of January, NTV broadcaster quoted Çavuşoğlu as saying on Dec. 31.
OBSERVATION – Most likely working towards going after the Kurds in N Syria.
Mexico -
Fourteen people have been killed, and dozens more injured after gunmen in armored vehicles attacked a state prison in the northern Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez, which sits across the border from El Paso, Texas, on New Year’s Day.
Approximately 10 prison guards and four inmates were killed on the morning of Jan. 1 when an unknown number of gunmen arrived at the Cereso No. 3 state prison at around 7 a.m. local time and opened fire, officials said.
OBSERVATON – This is just across the border from El Paso TX. The failure to control the border will allow cartel violence to migrate northward as well. Mexican law allows the miliary to go after them. Our laws prohibit the miltary from similar actions, and current law enforcement assets are already overwhelmed by crime that to include an element to literally combat heavily armed cartels will collapse the system in border areas.
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Happy new year Godzilla 😁💥😁 Thank you for your regular sharing of inport t news!
Well, moving into 2023 things are not unchanged from 2022.
Wuhan virus –
From The Wall Street Journal, “Are Vaccines Fueling New Covid Variants?”:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/are-vaccines-fueling-new-covid-variants-xbb-northeast-antibodies-mutation-strain-immune-imprinting-11672483618
Public-health experts are sounding the alarm about a new Omicron variant dubbed XBB that is rapidly spreading across the Northeast U.S. Some studies suggest it is as different from the original Covid strain from Wuhan as the 2003 SARS virus. Should Americans be worried?
It isn’t clear that XBB is any more lethal than other variants, but its mutations enable it to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccines as well as existing monoclonal antibody treatments. Growing evidence also suggests that repeated vaccinations may make people more susceptible to XBB and could be fueling the virus’s rapid evolution.
[…] “Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of multiple variants with enormous growth advantages is unprecedented,” a Dec. 19 study in the journal Nature notes. Under selective evolutionary pressures, the virus appears to have developed mutations that enable it to transmit more easily and escape antibodies elicited by vaccines and prior infection.
[…] XBB has evolved to elude antibodies induced by the vaccines and breakthrough infections. Hence, the Nature study suggests, “current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not efficiently prevent the infection of Omicron convergent variants.”
Notably, workers who had received more doses were at higher risk of getting sick. Those who received three more doses were 3.4 times as likely to get infected as the unvaccinated, while those who received two were only 2.6 times as likely.
OBSERVATION – It has been noted on an increasing basis that the nRNA jabs have had the effect to lower the overall viral defenses of the body – making it more susceptible to infections and other diseases. Many other voices (censored) in the medical community warned that the way the vaccines were rolled out – with virtually no testing – was bound cause rapid mutations. Those voices were considered ‘conspiracy’ and ‘misinformation’ by the cancel crowd. Now once again, we are being proven correct.
Economy –
Economists at 16 primary dealers that do business directly with the Federal Reserve, including Barclays, Bank of America, TD Securities, and UBS Group, are predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2023. Two other primary dealers predict the recession will hit in 2024, and five think the U.S. could avoid a recession in 2023 and 2024.
OBSERVATION – This is pretty representative of the split in economist views going into 2023. I see a degree of hopium in a lot of their statements, particularly those who espoused the “transitory inflation” narrative of 2021. Moderated forecasts serve to keep investors from panicking.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden plans to commemorate the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol with a White House ceremony, according to a schedule released by his office on Monday.
OBSERVATION – This event can be cross-referenced with CW2. I fully expect biden to once again launch a tirade against half of the country who supported Trump, probably invoking the domestic terrorist meme as he has before. It will be the first real crossing of swords so to speak of the 2024 presidential campaign.
Vice President Kamala Harris is requiring senators, their family members and guest wishing to take a photo with her at her swearing-in ceremony for the new Congress on Tuesday to take Covid tests within 24 hours of the picture.
A message from the U.S. Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Protocol Office was sent to all Senate offices that Harris would require coronavirus tests before photos. According to sources, some senators plan to snub the vice president on the first day of the new Congress because of the requirements.
OBSERVATION – Pitiful excuse for a VP.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Wallowa County in eastern Oregon submitted a petition aimed at forcing a ballot initiative in 2023 that would move the county out of Democrat-led Oregon and into GOP-led Idaho and is part of the Greater Idaho movement aimed to “relocate the Oregon/Idaho border to make both states better.” In doing so has become the 12th Oregonian county to do so.
For the counties to officially move from one state to another it would take the efforts of legislatures in Idaho, Oregon, and the US Congress to make the change.
OBSERVATION – As I’ve noted before, the chances of this realignment happing are nil. The Marxists left running Oregon and in DC will not let this out of their hands as it would be losing power – power over red areas of the country. Yet, this is a growing movement, joining the state of Jefferson (kalifornia) and Liberty (eastern Washington) to separate rural counties from domination by a few dark blue metropolitian areas.
The trend of separation of red from blue will likely accelerate, especially given the ongoing actions at both the state (Oregon, Washington and Kalifornia) level and federal.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar endorses subjecting social media companies to “hefty lawsuits” to force them to “do something” about misinformation.
OBSERVATION – Govt censorship – tyranny.
POLITICAL FRONT –
McCarthy struggled to beat back hard-line conservative opposition and secure enough votes to give him the speakership when the new House of Representatives convenes with a narrow Republican majority on Tuesday. Conservative republicans are saying McCarthy is part of the problem and not the solution.
OBSERVATION - He has been throwing a lot of compromises out there hoping to gain the support of at least 5 of the 9 holdouts. The nature of the compromises only goes to confirm he is part of the status quo crowd, happy to have the seat of power, but not willing to do the peoples business in a manner that supports the people. Most likely, unless something happens soon, there will be several ballots for speaker and who knows what other politicking to get that position.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army’s latest COVID-19 policy states that Congress’ 2023 defense bill, which rescinded the Department of Defense’s military vaccine mandate, does not address orders given to the National Guard and Reserves, according to documents obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
A November 2021 memo not addressed in the defense bill applied the mandate to National Guard and Reserve troops.
OBSERVATION – The DoD will not do the common sense thing and withdraw the mandate from the Guards and Reserves as well as active duty forces – following the intent of the law. Just further evidence that the woke powers that be in the DoD actually want reenlistment and recruitment to tank and lower combat readiness levels.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chineese New Years timeframe.
Indicators –
- Russian energy giant Gazprom reports that they sent more gas to China than they originally contracted. Increasing stockpiles of natural gas – as well as other resources – may indicate efforts to mitigate any sanctions brought on by an aggressive action against Taiwan.
- An unusual number of PRC cargo aircraft were noted flying to airbases inland. Now while they were not headed to bases closer to the ocean, the number of flights were very unusual according to OSINT and Chinese observers. May suggest that airborne troops for an assault may be staged further inland for OPSEC purposes.
North/South Korea –
Analysts are suggesting key military developments to watch out for in 2023. First is the development of a solid fuel ICBM to replace the liquid fuel Hwasong 17. Such a rocket would be ready to fire in substantially less time than the Hwasong 17.
Second is the development of a miniaturized warhead to mount on its tactical ballistic missiles. The world is yet to see proof that NK has been able to do this. The intelligence community spent most of 2022 waiting for it to test such a device, but the test never came - 2023 may well be the year.
Finally, 2022 was a record year for NK missile launches and there is no evidence that the will be slowing down any time soon. Some analysts are beginning to consider that these are no longer tests of the missile designs, but are transitioning to training exercises, designed to prepares to use its missiles in a possible conflict.
SK is seeking to open discussions with Washington on the subject of US deployment of nuclear weapons to SK and conducting joint nuclear exercises. The DoD had raised the topic last year but so far biden has rejected the offer.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian lawmakers are demanding punishment for commanders over negligence in the death of scores of Russian conscripts killed in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike in Donetsk on New Year’s Eve. The Russian government announced that 63 soldiers had been killed in the strike, although some U.S. intelligence officials said the death toll might be much higher. Russian commanders are being accused of housing the conscripts all together in a hotel along with their ammunition supplies which exploded during the HIMARS strike.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was attacked with firebombs at Perovo district of Moscow
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures. Weather forcasts continue with above freezing temperatures for the next couple weeks.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Some analysts are indicating that the battles northwest of Donetsk have reached their end and Russia is pausing to regroup. Analysts also indicating similar for the battles around Bahkmut noting that Russian attacks are independent company sized and smaller elements, poorly coordinated and with minimal artillery support.
Weather continues to control matters and unusually warm weather across Europe is keeping things very muddy in Ukraine and not permitting the ground to freeze up.
Russian air defenses were busy in Simferopol and Sevastopol Crimea overnight reportedly engaging Ukrainian drones.
OUTLOOK ——
More of the same along the LOC in the east. Analysts see a decrease in Russian capabilities and attack sizes, suggesting that their capabilities are rapidly declining. This decline in capability may impair preparations for Russia’s winter offensive.
Russia has also gone into a quiet period as far as missile/cruise missile/drone attacks. Analysts suggest these are indicators of a growing shortage of those kind of munitions.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Speaking to Belarusian media, Defense Minister Anatoly Bulauko said that Belarusian forces are training to fight against NATO. “[NATO is] an adversary for the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. We are training for war with these states with the [joint] exercises,” he said.
OBSERVATION – Analysts still consider the chances that Belarus will enter the war in Ukraine as very low to not going to happen. Recent exercises and activities have reportedly been more of a defensive nature, rather than offensive. Belarus has on numerous occasions warned of a NATO (primarily from Poland and the Baltic States) invasion of Belarus – and has used it to deflect putins arm twisting to enter the Ukraine conflict at a deeper level.
Israel –
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has called for a harder line towards the Palestinians, walked around the Temple mount site surrounded by police, spurring widespread condemnation from the arab world. A visit to the site in 2000 by Israeli right-winger Ariel Sharon, then opposition leader, infuriated Palestinians. Violence which followed escalated into the second Palestinian uprising, or intifada.
OBSERVATION – Palistianian / Israeli tensions have already been sky high the past year, and this wont help matters any. The act also angered Saudi Arabia, with whom Israel was in the process of trying to establish some degree of normalized relations, based in part due to their common enemy – Iran.
Iran –
Iranian Basji forces have increased lethal attacks on protestors in an apparent attempt to quell the recent increase in protests.
Black Swans -
Watching the substantial series of storms pouring into kalifornia. The next one expected to arrive Wed thru Thurs is expected by forcasters to be one of the most severe in many, many years, and accompanied by gusts in excess of 50 mph. Winds have already downed power lines across N Ca and these winds are even stronger. Storm series hitting every 2-3 days over the next couple week. Some forecasts of over 30 feet of snow in the Sierras.
As I think I noted once before, the danger from this ‘atmospheric river’ is a warmer cell hitting and generating a rain on snow event that can create catastrophic flooding. Kalifornia’s system of lakes and reservoirs can handle excessive precipitation events – if there is a period of time to drain the lakes in preparation for the next storm. This current weather event is not allowing for storage to be regained and if worst happens, the dams will be forced to spill water at max capacity to save the dam. But this will trigger levee losses down stream. Worst case – YES but not unthinkable. Folks living in potential flood zones – even those ‘protected’ by levees – better make plans to bug out if necessary as well as increase their monitoring of their local hydrological conditions.
Thanks for all your work. Happy New Year!
First hump day of 2023. A slow reporting day.
Economy –
According to CoBank Lead Animal Protein Economist Brian Earnest, both supply and demand side pressures will lead meat and poultry producers to take a cautionary stance on expanding production in 2023. Beef production is set to contract in 2023. CoBank estimates a 5% reduction in beef cow herds.
OBSERVATION – This means that inflationary pressures will continue in the beef market for several years at least because it will take that long to enlarge herds to pre-pandemic levels. Poultry will recover faster once the avian flu is over.
Invasion of Illegals –
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released its year-end report showing yet another uptick in the total of fugitive illegal aliens — those who have been ordered deported but have refused to leave the U.S.
According to the report, this number has now reached more than 1.2 million under Biden. This number doesn’t reflect millions released into the US after being caught and have not shown up for their court appearances in the same time frame.
Altogether, the total of illegal aliens living in the U.S. who have either final deportation orders or pending deportation orders reached nearly 4.8 million in Fiscal Year 2022 — an almost 100 percent increase since Fiscal Year 2017.
Biden / Harris watch –
Rumors growing that biden will dump harris as his running mate for 2024, replacing her with another woman – some believe to be Clinton or 0bama.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
In the latest release of the Twitter Files, reporter Matt Taibbi revealed how the State Department attempted to go to the media with information about suspect Twitter accounts. Twitter executives were under pressure from a a fledgling analytic/intelligence arms of the State Department to follow their requests.
POLITICAL FRONT –
McCarthy became the first person in one hundred years to not win house speaker in the first round of voting. In fact, three votes were taken yesterday and the only republican that gained ground was Jordan.
OBSERVATION - The speaker battle will define the fight for the heart and soul of the republican party actions during the next congressional session. Moderates are more inclined not to rock the boat and essentially process as democrat-lite manners and policies. Conservative members demand a change the method of operations. Some how, moderates consider the goals of a balanced budget and govt accountability things the public are not interested in.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Well, one mystery solved -
Two men were arrested on New Year’s Eve for allegedly shutting down four Washington state power substations in late December that led to power outages for thousands across Pierce County. Matthew Greenwood and Jeremy Crahan have been charged with conspiracy to damage energy facilities and Greenwood faces a separate charge of possessing illegal short-barreled rifles.
According to court documents, Greenwood, 32, and Crahan, 40, plotted to knock out power from four substations. While power was out in the first two facilities, the pair broke into a local business to steal from the cash register, Greenwood allegedly told investigators after his arrest.
Investigators identified Greenwood and Crahan almost immediately after the attacks took place by using cell phone data that allegedly showed both men in the vicinity of all four substations, according to court documents. Surveillance images cited in the court documents also showed images of one of the men and of the getaway car.
OBSERVATION - It does seem excessive to take out 4 substations just to rob a few stores. That may be due to simple lack of understanding of what substation serviced what area.
Perhaps on another level was the ability to use cell phone data to locate the men at the substations - tracking ability that govt could use against (and probably has) patriots in the future.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Air Force is laying the structural foundation for a long-range over-the-horizon radar known as the Tactical Mobile Over-the-horizon Radar (TACMOR) on the western Pacific island of Palau. Air Force will likely use this radar as an early warning system for anti-ship ballistic missiles and land-strike ballistic missiles launched out of China.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Wednesday that his country would deepen its military alliance with the U.S. under its new national security strategy.
Over the past two weeks, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy Liaoning Carrier Strike Group has been operating in and around Japanese waters near Okinawa and the Nansei Islands.
OBSERVATION – Japan’s accelerated military build-up efforts with increased diplomatic / military cooperation with others in the region points to how serious Japan considers China’s expansionist threats.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
More Kremlin maneuvering between Wagner Group and the MoD. With the failure to capture Bahkmut and the recent HIMARS strike that took out as many as 600 soldiers, Wagner has been having their narrative of success sharply hit.
Russian sources report that poor COMSEC by soldiers hit with HIMARS stike was the cause of it being targeted. Apparently georeferenced photos hit the interwebs, enabling Ukrainian intelligence to quickly pull the data together and launch the strike.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures. Weather forcasts continue with above freezing temperatures for the next couple weeks.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Wagner Group is catching flak from some Russian milbloggers for its failure to capture Bahkmut after 5 months of fighting for it and the majority of Russian logistical support given.
OUTLOOK ——
Continued status quo. Ukraine seems to be happy to maintain the defensive in the Bahkmut - Donetsk zone as it requires a smaller force and Russia hasn’t mustered the men and equipment necessary to swing the force ratio into their favor. As a result, Russia has continued to absorb heavy casualities.
Once the weather cools enough to freeze the ground, the actions from both sides should become dynamic very quickly.
Iran –
As the protests have continued, Iran has tried to shape the situation as Kurdish and Sunni supported insurgencies. In part this is correct, but there is also a broader level of support from other sectors of the country. IRGC and Basji forces continue to increase brutal efforts to suppress protests.
Looks like criminals are stupid AND they're watching too many action movies... Cops doing the phone thing is great but the press should leave it out of stories.
There seems to be some internet issues with many servers this morning, and I’ve not been able to access half the websites I normally do. Haven’t been able to follow links down to root articles so I’ve possibly missed a lot.
Fortunately FR has not been affected.
Wuhan virus –
Lawsuits against the FDA and its alleged directives forbidding the use of ivermectin to treat wuhan are gaining traction. During a hearing in 2022, attorneys defending the government argued that the agency’s missives were just a recommendation.
“They did not say it’s prohibited or it’s unlawful. They also did not say that doctors may not prescribe ivermectin,” Isaac Belfer, one of the lawyers for the government, said during a Nov. 1, 2022, hearing in federal court in Texas.
“The FDA was the key creator of these hurdles when it launched a social media campaign stating that ivermectin is dangerous and only for horses. When faced with a lawsuit, the FDA now claims it was merely making suggestions—suggestions that have threatened my ability to practice medicine and more importantly, interfered with life-saving early treatment of COVID patients,” stated Dr. Mary Bowden , a plaintiff in one of the cases.
OBSERVATION - Another lawsuit – the crack in the dam widens as more and more evidence comes out of the deliberation actions to remove treatments for wuhan that were contrary to the official ‘narrative’. REMEMBER, many of these physicians and nurses lost their certifications and were fired because they prescribed ivermectin for their patients based on this “recommendation” that the covidians twisted into a ban. People lost their lives that could have been saved .
A study that looked into the age-stratified infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among the non-elderly population has found that the rate was extremely low among young people.
“The median IFR was 0.0003 percent at 0–19 years, 0.002 percent at 20–29 years, 0.011 percent at 30–39 years, 0.035 percent at 40–49 years, 0.123 percent at 50–59 years, and 0.506 percent at 60–69 years,” the study conducted across 29 countries stated. “At a global level, pre-vaccination IFR may have been as low as 0.03 percent and 0.07 percent for 0–59 and 0–69-year-old people, respectively.”
Some countries have stopped their COVID-19 vaccine programs for children. In October, the Swedish Public Health authority ceased recommending vaccination for 12- to 17-year-olds except under special circumstances. The agency acknowledged that very few healthy children have been affected seriously by the virus.
“Overall, we see that the need for care as a result of COVID-19 has been low among children and young people during the pandemic, and has also decreased since the virus variant omicron began to spread,” Soren Andersson, head of a unit at the Public Health Authority, told broadcaster SVT at the time. “In this phase of the pandemic, we do not see that there is a continued need for vaccination in this group.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X
OBSERVATION – These kinds of numbers were known early on during the plandemic. Yet the jab was pushed and mandated and now we have global aftereffects of ‘excessive deaths’, Sudden Adult Death syndrome (SADS), heart conditions, female reproduction issues, documented decline in the immune system strength/capability – just a short list. As much as I’d like to see a Nuremburg style of reconning against the pushers of the jabs and the govt agencies that encouraged it – it will never happen.
The U.S. is extending its requirement for foreign travelers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The requirement was scheduled to expire on Jan. 8. However, it will now expire on April 10, according to an amended order from the Transportation Security Administration. The order applies to non-citizens and non-immigrants.
OBSERVATION – The biggest crier against this requirement is China and the extension decision was made largely with it in mind.
Economy –
A new Gallup poll shows Americans entering the new year with great pessimism about their country, the prospects for peace and prosperity, and their government’s ability to control crime, inflation and deficit spending.
Gallup summed up the poll like this: “Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas.”
The poll surveyed 1,803 people on whether they had a negative or positive outlook on a host of pressing issues. Gallup states:
“When offered opposing outcomes on each issue, about eight in 10 U.S. adults think 2023 will be a year of economic difficulty with higher rather than lower taxes and a growing rather than shrinking budget deficit.
OBSERVATION – While the survey’s results are based on the subjective views of the surveyed, it is useful to see the gap between the govt’s narrative of happy days are here again versus the cold realities of trying to make ends meet. The public also doesn’t appear to agree with the regime’s actions on a global scale either.
RECESSION WATCH –
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index crashed on Tuesday in the worst decline on record, sinking on prospects of a global recession. Baltic Dry Good Index is a measure of global shipping and economic health. The overall index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax, and supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, plunged 17.5% to $1,250, the most significant daily decline since 1984.
OBSERVATION – Recessions result in decreased production of goods. A reflection of those good produced is how busy shipping is. Here the index is flashing global recession warnings.
Two-thirds of top economists at the United States’ largest financial institutions are predicting a recession in 2023, according to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
Primary concerns cited in the survey of 23 primary dealers, including those from Barclays PLC, Bank of America Corp, TD Securities, and UBS Group AG, were a dwindling of pandemic savings, a decline in the housing market, and a tightening of lending rules as potential warning signs of an incoming recession.
Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist at Credit Suisse, one of the five banks that didn’t predict a recession, wrote of the outlook for 2023, “Several historically reliable lead indicators are sending recession signals, but in our view these measures are unable to correctly gauge recession risk in the current environment.”
OBSERVATION – In essence, Credit Suisse is whistling past the graveyard – contrary to leading indicators of a recession. They are correct in part that the current global economic environment is having unprecedented impact on the future economic outcomes – that environment by many are viewing that they will contribute to a much deeper and longer recession.
Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their commitment to combating inflation at their December meeting and indicated that interest rates could remain elevated for “some time” until there is clear evidence that consumer prices are falling.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers worried that investors and financial markets could misinterpret their decision to raise interest rates more slowly as a sign they were ending their campaign to bring prices under control. Fed officials said that the smaller rate hike – 50 basis points, compared to the previous four 75-basis-point increases – “was not an indication of any weakening” and warned of continued risks on the inflation front.
The minutes show that officials remain determined to hold rates high as long as needed in order to tame inflation, even if it means risking higher unemployment or slower economic growth.
“Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 percent, which was likely to take some time,” the minutes said. “In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy.”
OBSERVATION – Expect no changes any time soon. Even a 50 point rate increase is out of the norms of past Fed responses to inflation. Remember too that the common assessment that it takes 3 – 6 months for a fed rate change to fully affect the economy means the initial 75 point increases are just starting to show their teeth.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is buddy-buddying up with McConnel over the support given to get the $1.7 trillion CR passed in the senate. This mammoth porkulus bill is one that even Godzilla cannot devour.
“I’m especially happy to be with my friend and colleague of many years, and I might add, longest-serving leader at the United States Senate, Senator Mitch McConnell. Mitch, it’s great to be with you,” Biden said while delivering a speech on the economy in Covington, Kentucky, in a rare appearance with McConnell.
The two leaders appeared at the site of a bridge due to receive funding from the package, spanning between Kentucky and Ohio, after riding in the same car together to the speaking event.
(snip) “Mitch… it wasn’t easy to get this done, and it wouldn’t have gotten done… without your hand, and I want to thank you for that!”
OBSERVATION – biden heaping praise on a republican – shows you how far the senate leadership has fallen.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa supported violence against counter protestors of LGBT trans events are the biggest notes. However, these are local actions and not fully tracked up for nation wide violence.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sixth round of voting yesterday and McCarthy is no closer to obtaining the chair. Rumors afoot that he has made significant concessions to opposition conservatives and that may swing enough votes in his favor
Meanwhile, republican infighting is getting vicious and there will be considerable animus between members for a long time to come. Could likely cancel out much of what the republicans could accomplish this term.
For example - Crenshaw (R-TX), called those who opposed McCarthy “terrorists”. NOTE – Crenshaw is a graduate of the WEF’s young leaders seminar – along with the likes of Canada’s Trudeau. In spite of using his military career to bolster is ‘conservative’ credentials, he has routinely voted with democrats on many issues.
There are even reports that some republicans are reaching out to democrats, offering them choice concessions of raising the debt ceiling and other issues. Many analysts look at that as being a none starter at this stage and would completely undercut stated republican goals before the current stalemate.
OBSERVATION – What little hope I placed in the republicans in the house have been shattered as it seems the eGOP branch wants the decimation of America. Remember, over 50 house republicans voted for the abominable LGBT ‘marriage’ act. Similar goes to house republicans who voted for the year long CR that effectively blocked the republican ‘controlled’ house from effecting budget controls for half (one year) of the term.
Cutting deals with the democrats would definitely hit republicans if they go that route. It would confirm what the hold-outs are indicating is the case – a status quo in the house and the republicans being demoted to a ‘democrat-lite’ party.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
China and the Philippines have agreed to set up a direct communications channel on the South China Sea and to handle disputes over the contested waterway “through peaceful means”, according to a joint statement by the two countries.
The agreement on Thursday came a day after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing amid efforts to mend a relationship that has been strained by Manila’s decision in 2016 to seek an arbitral ruling on China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. The United Nations tribunal invalidated China’s claims, but Beijing has rejected the ruling.
OBSERVATION – China may be trying to head off or reduce the effect of renewed cooperation and security agreements between the Philippines and the US. Without a doubt, any agreement made will be canted to give China the most benefit and control they want in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia has deployed a frigate to the Atlantic Ocean armed with new generation hypersonic cruise missiles on Wednesday. In a video conference with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Igor Krokhmal, commander of the frigate named “Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov”, Putin said the ship was armed with Zircon (Tsirkon) hypersonic weapons.
“This time the ship is equipped with the latest hypersonic missile system - ‘Zircon’,” said Putin. “I am sure that such powerful weapons will reliably protect Russia from potential external threats.”
OBSERVATION – A restatement of the nuclear threat by putin. Theoretically, the Zircon provides a pretty stout first strike capability. Any use by Russia would throw the world into a global nuclear conflict and decimate Russia.
Logistics –
- Rumors are circulating that Russia has been able to procure another 1700 Iranian drones. At the current use rate, this stockpile could last as long as May.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Combat on the ground has been largely controlled by winter weather conditions.
OUTLOOK ——
Continued status quo. Ukraine seems to be happy to maintain the defensive in the Bahkmut - Donetsk zone as it requires a smaller force and Russia hasn’t mustered the men and equipment necessary to swing the force ratio into their favor. As a result, Russia has continued to absorb heavy causalities.
With Russia working to get more Iranian drones, Ukraine’s defenses against them are improving to the extent that the Russian swarm attacks may no longer be able to effectively meet their goal of demoralizing the Ukrainian people. Ukraine success actually boosts the morale of the citizens.
Weather conditions are beginning to switch over to the low temperatures necessary for maneuver combat. Good news for Ukraine and bad for the poorly equipped Russians.
Belarus -
Belarusian Ministry of Defense confirmed efforts to build up the joint Belarus-Russian battlegroup. There have been other unconfirmed reports that Russia is planning on sending more troops to Belarus for both training as well as putting together a force that could once again threaten N Ukraine and Kyiv.
OBSERVATION - Within all this activity, Belarus has been very vocal towards NATO, emphasizing almost imminent invasion by NATO. This persistent ‘defensive’ type of talk indicates Belarus is still pretty well entrenched against marching into Ukraine along side Russian forces. Belarus military command is well aware that Russia has drained much of its war reserve of ammo and armor/tanks over the past 10 months of fighting – leaving very little reserve for any kind of Belarus expeditionary force incursion into Ukraine.
Assessment continues that Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Calls from the E.U. for Serbia to join in sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine were bluntly rejected by Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic on Wednesday. In an address to the nation, Vucic said the E.U. sanctions represent a “brutal” interference in Serbia’s internal affairs.
OBSERVATION – Serbia has applied for membership into the EU. However, its aggressive approach to N Kosovo and its alliance with Russia has soured that application to many in the EU.
Israel –
Israeli diplomats are working damage control following the visit to the temple mount by Israeli govt officials.
Turkey -
See Russia for talks with Russia.
Misc of Note –
Shortages of over the counter cold and flu medicines have deepened globally. This is in part due to a shortage of prescription cold/flu medicines. Shortages are being blamed on production problems and supply shortages. Many of these drugs are also produced in India and China – increasing uncertainties for supply.
OBSERVATION – If your family uses these kinds of OTC drugs, buy them when you see them – even if you don’t currently need them. Chances are when you do need them there will be none to find.
As long as Biden and his goons are running things people will be fearful.
Happy New Year, Godzilla. Thank you for another thread.
Thanks Velveeta
Anniversary of the non-insurrection Jan 6 protests. Democrats holding their somber memorial today in rememberance.
Economy –
Utility companies warned federal lawmakers of a severe shortage of power transformers. According to Grid Assurance CEO Dave Rupert, large transformers have increased in price by 20% to 50% since 2020, and the time to procure new transformers has increased to as long as 39 months. American Public Power Association CEO Joy Ditto said the average price for distribution transformers has at least doubled, and the shortage caught utilities by surprise. According to Ditto, only a few domestic manufacturers make distribution transformers, and those manufacturers are dealing with constraints on labor, materials, and capacity. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This has been a problem for several decades now, and the recent vandalism of substations has highlighted this concern once again. Many large transformers are almost custom made – meaning even longer waits if one goes out. In the Before Years replacement, though slow, could be counted on – eventually. Today, reliance on China and other foreign countries critically jeopardizes replacement.
According to data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global, manufacturing in the U.S. shrank for the second month in a row in December 2022. ISM data showed a 10.4-point drop in their manufacturing index, the biggest drop since the Great Recession in 2008. The S&P Global manufacturing index hit its lowest level since May 2020. (FO)
OBSERVATION - A major contraction in manufacturing is an indicator of shrinking consumer demand and a strong sign of recession.
The survey of business establishments is likely to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 jobs last month after rising 263,000 in November, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That would be the smallest gain in two years.
However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets.
OBSERVATION – The fed will be looking closely at these numbers, likely to see them as a threat to its efforts to reduce inflation or see them as a sign that the rate increases are having the desired effect to cool the job market. One has to remember that the job market is just beginning to catch up to per-wuhan levels and doesn’t mark anything specifically ‘new’ beyond that. Only in the past month or so have service related positions - food industry for example – finally regained pre-wuhan levels.
The Biden administration signed off on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations to protect small streams, wetlands and waterways as part of the Clean Water Act, just before the end of 2022. The EPA signed off on the revised definition of “Waters of the United States” on Dec. 29 while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers signed off on the revised definitions on Dec. 28.
The revised rules define what types of water bodies are protected under the Clean Water Act and were based on definitions that were put in place before 2015 during the Obama administration.
Congressman Doug LaMalfa, a Republican who represents California, is opposed to the regulations.
“Rural America doesn’t need yet another rule giving the federal government more power over farming and private property,” he said in a statement last week. “The federal government shouldn’t have jurisdiction to regulate puddles, ditches, seasonal creeks or culverts. All this rule does is make it more difficult to grow food or build anything.”
OBSERVATION – Basically reinstates the nonsensical rule that just about any mud puddle or surface trickle is now considered to be a ‘wetland’ under full protection of the US govt. This will have (and has in the past) serious detrimental impacts to to farmers, builders, and oil producers, who were concerned about feds regulating ravines and creeks on private property, like farms. For power hungry regulators, this is a jackpot. For the rest of Americans, an unmitigated disaster. The economic impacts will be significant - reduction in food and energy production for starters.
NOTE – personal experience . in cleaning up an environmental site that once was a military base, old building foundations that retained water were to be protected under these 0bama era regulations as ‘wet land’ because they found fairy shrimp in them. So puddles in old building foundations suddenly became ‘wetlands’ and ‘waters of the US’.
Invasion of Illegals –
In the confused jumble of words from biden speaking on the border crisis, he appears to be looking at reinstating rules set down by Trump that he reversed shortly after taking office.
Biden / Harris watch –
President Biden let it be known first thing yesterday morning that he would visit El Paso this coming Sunday. This is something that his designated border problem solver – harris – refuses to do.
“[S]ince August of last year, Customs and Border Patrol [it’s Customs and Border Protection] have seized more than 20,000 pounds of deadly fentanyl,” President Joe Biden said. “That’s enough to kill — kill as many as 1,000 people in this country. Twenty thousand pounds of fentanyl. It’s a killer. It’s a flat killer,” Biden said.
Biden is headed to Mexico City this weekend for Sunday’s North American Leaders Summit
OBSERVATION – Mexican state of Sinaloa erupted into near war yesterday with the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, Sinaloa Cartel leader and son of the notorious “El Chapo” Guzman. There is a significant chance that the cartel will attempt to disrupt this summit and even attempt to assassinate participants.
POLITICAL FRONT –
After failing to be elected after 11 votes, there are reports that the house republicans will “participate” in a conference call regarding another so called plan of reconciliation to get the votes needed for McCarthy elected speaker. There is not much optimism.
OBSERVATION – The conservatives want things in writing – not just his ‘word’. Further, the conference call format can control input of all parties involved.
As the standoff continues, more background on McCarthy is coming out. Rep. Kevin McCarthy revealed he had “dinner” with billionaire Klaus Schwab at the World Economic Forum in 2018 during remarks he made on a panel with Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, a shipping heiress of Chinese descent.
McCarthy attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in 2018, the same year 45th President Donald Trump spoke to the elite group of wealthy businessmen, politicians, and journalists.
McCarthy is publicly listed as a member of the World Economic Forum on its website and the Internet archive suggests he has been affiliated with the elite body since at least January of 2016.
OBSERVATION – another WEF plant? Perhaps Rep Crenshaw could enlighten us further.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has threatened to resign if the Republican party will negotiate with Democrats in voting to elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker. Gaetz announced his intentions to resign from Congress in an interview on Fox News Channel’s “The Ingraham Angle” Thursday night if he and other GOP patriots continued to refuse to back Kevin McCarthy’s speakership campaign.
OBSERVATION – kinda a stupid remark, I can see democrats crossing over just to get the mushy republican McCarthy elected and get Gaetz out of congress – a win, win for them.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
The U.S. Navy continued its Freedom of Navigation operations (FONOPS) in the Taiwan Straits Thursday. The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer U.S.S. Chung-Hoon carried out the transit.
OBSERVATION – This is a relatively routine action but one that raises the hackles of China as it claims the strait in its entirety to be Chinese domain.
According to a Bloomberg report coming out of Taiwan, the government in Taipei is concerned over recent discoveries of Chinese spy rings inside Taiwan’s military. So far, Taiwan has detained three active-duty military officers and a retired air force officer on charges of espionage. A Colonel in charge of the Taiwanese military’s infantry training school was arrested late last year after authorities found documents indicating he had pledged to surrender his military unit when China invaded Taiwan. The spying problem is reportedly affecting the highest levels of Taiwan’s military and includes its former Vice Defense Minister. (FO)
OBSERVATON – Chinese infiltration into key operations, not just military, has been standard practice for many decades now. However, uncovering spies/collaborators in Taiwan’s military is hypercritical particularly since it is facing potential actions to force the island to surrender in the near future.
Japan –
During a press conference yesterday, a Defense Department spokesman said that Japan is the “cornerstone of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
A temporary unilateral Russian ceasefire ordered by Putin during Orthodox Christmas was due to have taken effect in Ukraine at 0900 GMT on Friday till 2100 GMT on Saturday. His announcement was not widely received favorably by either Ukraine who dismissed it as an empty gesture and an attempt to gain time to regroup its force and Russian milbloggers/nationalists who decried it as giving Ukraine time to resupply and reinforce defenses in Bakhmut and other objectives in the Donbas region.
There is further speculation that Russia will renege on the cease fire and continue attacks.
NOTE – Part of the putin narrative is that he is the champion of Christianity in Ukraine (and the rest of the world) – trying to build support for one of the reasons for the invasion.
RUMINT-
A Russian war analyst and reputed former loyalist to Vladimir Putin says that the fight to overthrow the Russian dictator has already started. Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has essentially begun publicly arguing for power, Strelkov says, while Sergei Shoigu and his clique work more quietly to compete.
The fight at the top of the Kremlin focuses on insurgent Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner private army, and loyalist forces in the defence ministry around weakening defence minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Strelkov.
Others believe security apparatchiks around ex-FSB head Nikolai Patrushev – secretary of the powerful security council – are more likely to pull the trigger on Putin in a bid to save the elite ruling circle if the war continues to go wrong.
Some claim the security bloc is lining up his son Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev as the frontman for a coup replacing Putin if he is forced out by war setbacks or ill health.
‘The grouping of Yevgeny Prigozhin [head of Wagner private army] stands against grouping which includes Sergei Shoigu [Russian defence minister],’ said Strelkov, real name Igor Girkin, former defence minister of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.
Prigozhin/Shoigu feud is not new. When it became clear that Russian commanders had proven incompetent and military preparation a myth in the first weeks of the war, Shoigu reportedly was on his way out. Clearly, his base of power in the Kremlin is stronger than first thought, but his performance is every bit as bad as it has been all along.
OBSERVATION – A coup or death of putin will definitely put the current war in Ukraine into a different realm. Neither result would be good as some of the contenders are super war hawk/nationalist who could very well use nukes that putin has so far been holding back.
Kerch Bridge update – The Crimean bridge was struck almost three months ago and satellite imagery shows that workers are still repairing the damage.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More of the same, scattered artillery fire along the LOC in the south and east along with the daily Russian ground assaults along the Kreminna – Donetsk portion of the line.
There is no evidence that Ukraine will honor the Russian declared unilateral ceasefire during the Orthodox Christmas period.
US announced that that 50 US Bradley fighting vehicles will be delivered to Ukraine and troops trained in how to use them. Includes hundreds of TOW rounds. This along with other modern Western armored vehicles / tanks that are being sent instead of left over Russian designed vehicles left over from the cold war. Germany will provide Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine️. Germany also join the U.S. in supplying an additional Patriot air defense battery
OUTLOOK ——
A continuation of the current status quo. If rumblings from Russian milbloggers is true, Russian has been losing ground in the Bakhmut area and the Russian offensive there is petering out.
The unilateral ceasefire by putin is worth monitoring to see if he keeps his word or launches more attacks. Ukraine OTOH, may be able to seize the moment if Russia foolishly clusters troops together for ‘celebrations’ and Mr HIMARS pay a visit.
Belarus -
A Defense Department spokesman said yesterday that the DOD is seeing “no indications” that Russia intends to use forces stationed in the joint Belarus-Russia battlegroup in another front in the Ukraine war.
Russia is shipping some equipment into Belarus with at least 50 more units of Russian military equipment were transferred to Belarus from Russia in recent days.
Belarusian MoD reported that another echelon with military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces had arrived in Belarus. Many trucks are marked with the identification symbol “Z”. included about 43 KamAZ and Ural trucks, BAZ-6306, 5 fuel trucks, 2 ZU-23-2, field kitchens and water barrels. One of the vehicles had license plates with the 44th region of Russia – the Western Military District.
OBSERVATION – The equipment shipped have mostly been cargo trucks and the like. Very little in the way of tanks or APCs. Russia has the capability to fall in on existing Belarus equipment, provided they allow it. But the items being brought in are no where near the same as was deployed there a year ago in advance of the start of the war.
Belarusian border guards accuse Ukraine of provocative actions on the border, saying Ukrainians behave aggressively, pointing guns at them and verbally insults them.
Israel –
The United States is expected to join other countries condemning Israel at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting Thursday that is convening to discuss the brief visit of a Jewish minister to the Temple Mount earlier this week.
RELATED - Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) on Wednesday attacked the Biden administration’s “pathological obsession” with undermining Israel was endangering U.S. national security, following the U.S.’ condemnation of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s visit to the Temple Mount. The Biden administration has “consistently sought to undermine Israel’s security and sovereignty over its territory,”
OBSERVATION – More evidence that the biden regime is moving towards positions against Israel, moves that may force it to consider taking actions on its own without Washington support.
Iran –
Iranian regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime demonstrations enter their fourth consecutive month in Iran.
Mexico -
Culiacán Mexico was described as a war zone yesterday following the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, son of el Chapo. Sinaloa Cartel sicarios almost immediately began blocking roads into Culiacán and launched an assault on the airport in an effort try to free him from custody. Mexico reaponsed by deploying military forces to the region and even used helicopter gun ships to battle the sicarios. Releated fighting besides in Culiacan broke out in Mazatlán, Navolato, Badiraguato and Los Mochis. Nayarit, Sinaloa reporting sicarios blockade as well.
This morning the Mexican military reported 10 mexican military dead and 35 injured. 19 cartel sicarios dead. These numbers will likely rise. Sporatic fighting was still being reported.
During yesterday’s battle in Culiacán, there was total anarchy with widespread looting seen across the city.
OBSERVATION – Sinaloa province is a narrow strip of land along the gulf of Baja. Ovidio Guzman has been wanted for quite some time. I’ve not seen any reports on his current whereabouts, some suspect he has been extradited to the US. This is the kind of stuff that awaits the US and the control over the border breaks down.
ALSO NOTE- Sunday’s North American Leaders Summit could be at risk of an attack of some sort.
Black Swans -
A major solar flare measuring X1.2 at its peak erupted from Active Region 3182 at 00:57 UTC on January 6, 2023. This sunspot group just came around the edge of the sun and hasn’t yet positioned itself for a direct shot at earth. It will be in position in the coming days. A X1.2 is a big flare/CME, but I look at things in the X15 range and above. X15 shut down the Quebec power grid a several of decades ago and the famous Carrington event was something like an X45. Eyes are monitoring this closely.
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