Posted on 12/26/2022 7:20:58 AM PST by Red Badger
With the last elections finally decided and the last fundraising reports for 2022 already being compiled, we have well and truly entered the 2024 presidential cycle.
The hottest question right now is whom the Republicans will nominate. In recent months, the likelihood that it will not be Donald Trump has increased significantly, although it may still be greater than 50%.
There is a misconception among many Republican Trump supporters, who naively would like to have their cake and eat it too. They want to see Trump given the nomination in 2024, but they don't want to see an end to the career of the GOP's rising star, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. And so they talk as if it's just not DeSantis's time yet. He should just defer to Trump in 2024, they say, and wait his turn until 2028.
This is completely wrong if you look at it from the Florida governor's perspective.
To be perfectly clear, if he waits until 2028, DeSantis will be term-limited out of office and with no job prospects in any relevant political role. One inferior option to running as a sitting governor (from a presidential race perspective) would be to run as a sitting senator. But DeSantis will not have the option of seeking an open U.S. Senate seat to stay relevant, as there is no Senate election in Florida in 2026. He's not going to go back and run for his old House seat, obviously. So, what can he do?
By the way, what happens to out-of-office Republican governors in presidential races? Ask Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, or Jim Gilmore if you're interested. (By the way, none of those guys won when they ran for president.)
Even worse than DeSantis's loss of relevance will be the loss of relevance of what he did as governor. The issues that have made DeSantis's governorship memorable and successful may not even be on the table anymore in five years. His battles against the cultural Left will be a thing of the past, a mere footnote in political history. So will his brave decision to keep his state open, as well as all the other work that people might find appealing — say, to preserve the Everglades and end special favors for the Walt Disney Corporation.
At this moment, DeSantis finds himself more popular and better liked than Trump, and even leading Trump in head-to-head matchups, although he trails if the GOP field gets more crowded. And equally important, DeSantis leads Joe Biden in head-to-head polls. Democrats almost appear to be stuck with Biden, who is already deeply unpopular and likely will remain so in 2024. In 2028, they might have someone much more likely to win a general election.
So, in short, the conditions may never be this good for a run by DeSantis again. In fact, they are very likely never to be this good again.
Meanwhile, Trump is not entitled to the nomination. If he wants it, he has to win it. And setting all other merits about the candidates aside, Republican voters will be weighing the merits of working so hard to elect someone who can serve one term at most. Wouldn't it be better to elect someone with a leg up for eight years of selecting conservative judges and rolling back Biden-era rules? In 2024, this argument weighs in his favor. In 2028, it won't give him any special advantage over his chief rivals.
So, there's only one thing for DeSantis to do if he ever wants to become president, and that is to run in 2024.
I’ll vote for the R in 2024.
Whoever but I doubt Trump will be the nominee. Just a hunch.
Self inflicted voter suppression is real. Sadly, there are some broken and defeated folks who have given up.
Not if he is dedicated to taking on the corruption in DC.
You're a fool if you don't recognize the blatant fraud that occurred in both states in the last two election cycles.
But, you're notorious neocon, no doubt connected to the uniparty. So, what you're saying is your Republican established friends will allow free and fair elections so long as DeSantis goes along with neocon foreign policy and either open borders or amnesty for illegals.
The particular point that stood out to me was about the battle against the cultural left, and I think that is one issue where DeSantis has been much more vocal - and effective - than Trump. I just don't think Trump cares all that much about transgenderism, local education, and the other cultural issues. He may mention it occasionally in a prepared speech, but that's about it.
But it is a priority for DeSantis, and I think that is going to be particularly important in going all out after the Supreme Court rules on racial preferences in education. DeSantis understands the law, the regularity environment, etc., and is by far the best equipped of any GOP candidate to leverage the power of the Presidency in the culture wars. It's not even close.
I’m not so sure of Trump winning the primary...just a feeling.
Not a requirement for sure but it minimizes the possibility that the candidate will have ceased maintaining mental tension on the most pressing issues.
And started thinking about trading cards. LOL
“Hated by who? A handful of geriatric FReepers who spend all their time posting cat pictures on hagiographic “Q/Trump Family Train” threads and believe Trump is entitled to a coronation?”
Yep, that’s us - roughly 80% of the Republican base. We know you guys ‘support’ DeSantis to rip apart the Republican Party, much as you guys ‘claimed’ to support Cruz at the end in 2016, just to try to stop Trump.
But hint: If you guys can simply get Garland to put Trump in jail, Trump will have a tougher time running, and you just might be able to get Jeb in there.
Trump is going to remind everyone about 2015-2022/23 and beyond, and how the swamp tried and tried to get rid of him.
And eventually they had to run a worldwide scamdemic with mail in ballot stuffed votes to steal the election from him, an America First Candidate.
And every day since, the world got to see a little of the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama, and now Brandon, era..
Swamp first. Americans and America last..
Those 4 years didn’t wake everybody up and these last 2 may not have done it either,but time and revelations like Twitter can make it hard to keep the eyes and ears closed.
Especially if they are expecting Trump to move on from being spied on from the start and even after leaving office, raided by the same swamp.
Republican party may have been too enabling of the Swamp’s attacks on Trump
We’ll see if anything changes in 2023.
Because Trump is not just trying to beat the Democrats in 2024.
The whole swamp.
And maybe with a mandate this time.
Tough go for any other R in 2024.
Because of what the Swamp did to the one person that wasn’t like the Bush,Cheney,McCain Romney cabal that owns the Republican party..
The main problem for DeSantis is that if he waits to run in 2028, he will have been out of the Governor’s office for two years by then, seeing that his term ends in 2026, and he can’t run again, due to term limits.
Two years and he will be ignored by the media, for the entire time. Two years is forever in political time. Another newcomer could be a rising star by then. By that time DeSantis would be just another Republican throwing his hat into the ring..............
Ted the Cubamerinadian wasn’t even a Natty Born Cit. Give us a real point of comparison.
Look at Kemp. He bucked Trump and earned his endless wrath. Trump even idiotically said Stacey Abrams would be better for Georgia.
So I looked it up and...yup, he sure as hell did say that.
If he somehow manages to win the 2024 nomination, I'd have to down a couple bottles of Pepto to avoid puking while voting for him in the general election. I mean, screw that guy and his narcissism at this point.
This is just another anti-rumper screed. The GOPe establishment wants DeSantis and will continue dissing Trump all the way up to 2024. Don’t fall for it.
Well, if you define the "Republican base" as "those who worship Trump", you might have a point. Otherwise, you wildly overestimated his support among GOP voters.
And then Trump will get schlonged again by Joe Biden and we'll have to listen to four more years of "WE WUZ ROBBED!" and that Trump deserves the '28 nomination because only he and he alone can Build The Wall, Drain The Swamp, and Lock Her Up and plus, he'll only be 82 and has great genes.
I see from that picture that DeSantis speaks Italian.
I don’t understand the idea that one needs to be currently in some elective political office in order to run for president.
Being in office currently increases name recognition and provides voters with a more up-to-date picture of where a candidate stands.
What we learned is that the Republican Party will never allow Trump’s agenda to succeed. Never! Never! Never!
If there are some hardcore Trump supporters who refuse to vote for anyone who happens to defeat Trump for the 2024 nomination, so be it. I'll live with the loss of their votes, and count on making up more elsewhere
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