Posted on 12/26/2022 7:20:58 AM PST by Red Badger
With the last elections finally decided and the last fundraising reports for 2022 already being compiled, we have well and truly entered the 2024 presidential cycle.
The hottest question right now is whom the Republicans will nominate. In recent months, the likelihood that it will not be Donald Trump has increased significantly, although it may still be greater than 50%.
There is a misconception among many Republican Trump supporters, who naively would like to have their cake and eat it too. They want to see Trump given the nomination in 2024, but they don't want to see an end to the career of the GOP's rising star, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. And so they talk as if it's just not DeSantis's time yet. He should just defer to Trump in 2024, they say, and wait his turn until 2028.
This is completely wrong if you look at it from the Florida governor's perspective.
To be perfectly clear, if he waits until 2028, DeSantis will be term-limited out of office and with no job prospects in any relevant political role. One inferior option to running as a sitting governor (from a presidential race perspective) would be to run as a sitting senator. But DeSantis will not have the option of seeking an open U.S. Senate seat to stay relevant, as there is no Senate election in Florida in 2026. He's not going to go back and run for his old House seat, obviously. So, what can he do?
By the way, what happens to out-of-office Republican governors in presidential races? Ask Tim Pawlenty, Jeb Bush, or Jim Gilmore if you're interested. (By the way, none of those guys won when they ran for president.)
Even worse than DeSantis's loss of relevance will be the loss of relevance of what he did as governor. The issues that have made DeSantis's governorship memorable and successful may not even be on the table anymore in five years. His battles against the cultural Left will be a thing of the past, a mere footnote in political history. So will his brave decision to keep his state open, as well as all the other work that people might find appealing — say, to preserve the Everglades and end special favors for the Walt Disney Corporation.
At this moment, DeSantis finds himself more popular and better liked than Trump, and even leading Trump in head-to-head matchups, although he trails if the GOP field gets more crowded. And equally important, DeSantis leads Joe Biden in head-to-head polls. Democrats almost appear to be stuck with Biden, who is already deeply unpopular and likely will remain so in 2024. In 2028, they might have someone much more likely to win a general election.
So, in short, the conditions may never be this good for a run by DeSantis again. In fact, they are very likely never to be this good again.
Meanwhile, Trump is not entitled to the nomination. If he wants it, he has to win it. And setting all other merits about the candidates aside, Republican voters will be weighing the merits of working so hard to elect someone who can serve one term at most. Wouldn't it be better to elect someone with a leg up for eight years of selecting conservative judges and rolling back Biden-era rules? In 2024, this argument weighs in his favor. In 2028, it won't give him any special advantage over his chief rivals.
So, there's only one thing for DeSantis to do if he ever wants to become president, and that is to run in 2024.
Either way - though it is a theatrical performance we are not allowed to participate in - it will be interesting to watch.
The storyline should read: “Hatred for Trump So Extreme They’re Rooting for DeSantis In 2024..” The devils figure the window will close on Trump for good after 2024 and they will be rid of the SOB for good.
DeSantis isn’t going to flip anything. The elections are done.
George W. Bush, Bill Clinton for the opposite side of the story!! GIVE ME A DAMN BREAK, it is really quite amazing how the MSM is PUSHING DeSantis!!!
Okay, that could happen. Would not be a win though.
“Ron DeSantis will never be president unless he runs in 2024”
That’s a CUTE angle...to drive a wedge into the Republican Party.
The problem is that DeSantis knows that he will both lose and be HATED if he tries running against Trump in 2024, and never be as popular again. And, since he is young, he knows he can wait a bit.
I wouldn’t say elections are rigged against Republicans. It’s rigged against outsiders. Trump, Kari Lake are good examples but Hershel Walker would also never be allowed to win, neither would Oz. If you don’t owe the system for your rise then the system will not allow you in. DeSantis is a part of the system, I don’t suspect they would move heaven and earth to keep him out.
Yet OTOH, I remember GOP Senator Howard Baker who ran for president in 1980. In 1984 he declined to run for reelection to the Senate because he wanted to focus all his energies on another presidential run in 1988.
Yet his 1988 campaign folded almost before it had taken off. He said at the time that it had been a mistake giving up his Senate seat; that he might have had a better chance at the White House if he were still in the Senate.
👍
I don’t agree. What is happening is pure evil. There will be no winning by conventional means.
No one gets this right:
“...like to have their cake and eat it too.”
It’s actually:
Like to eat their cake and have it too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_can%27t_have_your_cake_and_eat_it
Truth. They are already explaining away election fraud 2, 6 years in advance.
1,000% FACT.
A LOT can and will happen in two years. And if all goes the well and the country is shifting regardless of the obvious election theft and non-voters voting in the 100s of thousands,-— then we’ll have 4 years and 8 then 8 years of DeSantis. The Examiner is working for the OPPOSITION— they are demonrats clearly. A national office is not a State Office where in FL DeSantis is hugely supported because his goal is to make the USA more like Florida. Florida winning while the rest of the country still follows these Climate loons and ultra Socialist anti- Republic anti Constitutionalists... FAIL! That is a landslide in the making. 4 plus 8 is 12 years to reverse these idiotic morons and time for Pelosi and Hakkim... to croak or run out of town on a rail.
Time to fight continuously— re-starting now!
Then, he’ll never be President. He’ll be crushed by Trump in the 2024 primaries and end up like Ted Cruz.
No worries, he will run.
Yes.I also! The answer is that Reagan had to fight off the Rockefeller republicans in name only aka Demorepubs... and did not get the nomination. Then he did and did so by allowing the one termer VP GHWBush on his ticket. The rest we know— GHWB unravelled everything Reagan accomplished in 8 years. The country went to crap and the Chi-coms made their stranglehold.
The people pushing DeSantis are trying to destroy him— he is a real threat and has plenty of time to build a NATIONAL recognizance— as opposed to placeholding party hacks at the Examiner who are.... Leftist democrats. Look at the ownership of this “paper”. Might as well be Politico or Mediaite.
Hated by who? A handful of geriatric FReepers who spend all their time posting cat pictures on hagiographic "Q/Trump Family Train" threads and believe Trump is entitled to a coronation?
Look at Kemp. He bucked Trump and earned his endless wrath. Trump even idiotically said Stacey Abrams would be better for Georgia. At the end of the day, Trump's MAGA base in Georgia disagreed that Abrams would be better and came on board for Kemp's massive victory. They'll do the same for DeSantis.
Sure, a few malcontents might sit home and pout but DeSantis will more than make up for them bringing in independents and swing voters, --a critical voting demographic who are totally repulsed by Donald Trump.
DeSantis has got momentum. He ran a great and organized campaign for governor. It was night and day different to how Trump ran his slapdash campaigns here in Florida.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.